Just when things were settling into the normal cadence of conference basketball, we get variance again.
The holiday week, with much of the country off work on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, sets up a great opportunity for matinees across the country, giving us many more games to choose from than a typical Monday in January — and coming off a week in which we crushed our lookahead plays in this spot last weekend. Let’s go!
Monday: Drexel at Towson – Towson ML
This should be a very snug spread, and still a decent buy-low spot for Towson at home. The Tigers had a brutal start to CAA play with their conference Preseason Player of the Year candidates Tyler Tejada and Dylan Williamson both in a dreadful shooting slump. Allowing Hofstra to drop 78 on them at home seems to be the low point; smashing Charleston at home last week and allowing just 52 points in the process is a template for them moving forward. With Drexel on a three-game winning streak, they will have Towson’s full attention. We expect the Tigers to win by multiple possessions.
Monday: Cornell at Brown – Over
We’ve seen Cornell play live, and they force even the more lethargic teams to play at their pace. They run a deep rotation and get plenty of scoring from their second team. They are tearing through the Ivy League, playing at the eighth-fastest pace in the nation, threatening to hang 90 on anyone while also ranking outside the top 350 in the country in overall KenPom defense. Brown is slow and has been an elite defending team, but we’ve seen this movie before. Expect both of these teams to score in the 80s.
Monday: UMBC at Binghamton – UMBC to cover
Binghamton got killed in the portal, including losing 6-foot-8 inside-outside presence Gavin Walsh to UNC Wilmington. It’s been a disaster. They’ve lost nine straight against D-I opponents, losing eight of those games by five points or more. UMBC has a real shot to win the America East with a talented backcourt and depth contributors on offense. The Retrievers are top-100 in eFG% and three-point shooting. We anticipate a win of 10-plus points and quite possibly north of 12.
Tuesday: Loyola Chicago at St. Bonaventure – St. Bonaventure to win by 20
Yeah, Loyola Chicago is a full-blown auto fade for us, especially on the road. Even when they show up for a half, like they did Friday at Dayton, they end up getting smashed by roughly 20 points again. They lack depth and quality and cannot keep games nearly as close as Vegas believes they can. Loyola cannot handle the ball at home, let alone on the road, and they steal no possessions because they create no turnovers. The Ramblers are 5-14 ATS (failing to cover by 9.4 per game). They are 3-10 ATS with two or three days off. St. Bonaventure has had a rough start to conference play, but this is a bounce-back spot. They have a top-125 offense and they might score 90 here.
Seth's Picks: BYU at Texas Tech, Virginia at SMU
Jan 17th: Seth Davis makes his picks for Saturday’s top games, including BYU at Texas Tech, Arkansas at Georgia, Virginia at SMU and more
Wednesday: Western Carolina at Mercer – Mercer to Cover
We have been remiss in not bringing the Mercer Bears to your betting attention much sooner. They are very much worthy of it. They have been reaching 100 points with regularity early in Southern Conference play and, while we expect this is more like a 90-burger spot for them, we wouldn’t rule them out from doing it again if they get off to a hot start. The Bears are 14-2 ATS on the season, covering on average by multiple possessions. This is not a small accomplishment. They are top-125 in basically every key offensive metric and they protect the ball and play solid interior defense. Good things Western Carolina is outside the top-250 in just about everything and can’t shoot a lick (31 percent from three). The Catamounts have covered three of their last 11 games and are 2-8 ATS on the road. We expect Mercer to win by more than a dozen.
Thursday: Portland State at Eastern Washington – Portland State to win
We expect this line to open within two points, and if so, will be jumping the Vikings on the ML. Portland State is also 13-3 ATS and we love what we’ve seen of them on the road so far in conference. They went to overtime at Weber State and Idaho State (much tougher teams than Eastern Washington) and won both. Portland State is an elite defensive team that can also shoot very well from outside. What we especially love about them is they clamp down defensively – top 100 overall and top 70 in opposing eFG% – without sending opponents to the line much, which is huge for covering purposes.
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