We’re not gonna lie, last week was tough.
Not just because we missed the mark with a few plays, but because there was so little to wager on in college hoops.
But now conference play is here.
Historical data and metrics carry more weight when backed up by years of meetings. Certain traditions and trends just seem to hold, and if they don’t, well, then you have to be ready to adjust. But there is a lot to like this week with league play getting going and teams settling into their normal weekly scheduling windows, which helps our lookahead work and planning quite a bit.
Monday: Towson at William & Mary – Towson ML +100
The Tribe will probably be a small favorite here. We like Towson to win the game. Tigers coach Pat Skerry doesn’t get many home games in November and December; no one wants to come and play him in Towson. But he scheduled Cornell for a very specific reason – they play a run-and-gun style very similar to William & Mary. I was in the gym for the Cornell game and Towson won easily in a high-scoring affair. Will be very interested to see the total in this one; Towson can make the Tribe play at their lethargic pace, even on the road. Towson is too good in the paint (opponents shooting 56 percent on two-point shots vs. the Tribe) and the boards. Towson went 7-2 on the road in the CAA last year and routinely won by double digits and they return two all-conference performers (16-2 overall). They opened at UNC-Wilmington in CAA play last year and upset them in OT. Skerry will have them ready for this.
Tuesday: South Carolina State at Tennessee – Tennessee to cover
We are running out of opportunities to fade SC State vs. premier opponents, and are leaping at this one vs. a top-25 team. The SEC is certainly quite down from a year ago, and it’s a little tougher to stack right now, but Tennessee is playing its best ball lately. The loss at Syracuse was troubling but they smashed Louisville before the holiday break and we honestly could see a 100-50 type scoreline here. The Vols defense is back to being a vice grip and ranks top-12 in KenPom efficiency. They are also a top-40 offense and are well rested, and their bench can do damage against one of the most overwhelmed teams in the country. We’ve said before we expect to be fading SC State in MEAC ball. They are 350th in KenPom offensive efficiency and 351st in defensive rating. This is a chance for the Vols to strut their stuff filling the basket before conference play.
Wednesday: St. John’s at Georgetown – St. John’s to cover
Vegas cannot figure out the Hoyas. Georgetown is 2-10 ATS this season and has failed to cover all 10 of those games by multiple possessions. And we have coach Ed Cooley getting suspended for whipping water bottles into the stands. Gulp. The Johnnies may not be what they were a year ago, but Rick Pitino wins rock fights on the road in conference, and this version of his team frankly has too much pace and scoring options for the Hoyas to keep this within 14 points. St. John’s has failed to cover six straight as well, which should help us with the pricing here.
Thursday: IU-Indy at Northern Kentucky – Northern Kentucky to cover
We will fade IU Indy religiously until proven otherwise. This continues to profile as a bottom-10 team in the country and we expect conference play to be fairly miserable for them. Especially on the road. They play at the fastest place in all of college ball and can’t make shots or defend the rim (or defend the arc, for that matter). We thought they would be a dead-over play coming into the season, but Vegas keeps setting totals around 180 (yeah, 180) and not much lower than 160, so we are leaning into their 4-8 ATS record instead. We expect the Norse to own them on the boards and turn them over a bunch. This could be a 20-point win for a Northern Kentucky team that seems improved from a year ago.
Friday: West Virginia at Iowa State – Iowa State to cover
The Cyclones went 14-9 ATS in conference a year ago and are among the most improved teams in the country this season. We can quibble about the level of competition, but teams that have traveled to Ames this season have lost by: 31, 25, 4 (Iowa), 64, 29, 40 and 38 points. Ouch. The Cyclones are undefeated and might stay that way for a while. They are 7-4-1 ATS this season and the Mountaineers have given us pause when they have faced decent opposition in neutral settings (let alone this cauldron). We think West Virginia’s KenPom numbers flatter them, and that this could be a 25-point bludgeoning as the Cyclones send a message to the rest of the Big 12.
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