Happy holidays!
Hope you have enjoyed betting with us, and we’ve navigated a very tricky portion of the college hoops wagering schedule pretty well, with more winners than losers. This week, well, there ain’t much inventory.
That’s the bad news.
The good news is that conference ball gets rolling on the other side of the Christmas break. And we could not be more fired up about that. In the meantime, it’s a limited — but intriguing — slate of games on Monday and Tuesday.
We wish you all the best in your bets, with maybe a parlay or two in your stocking, if you think like we do.
Monday: Denver at Tulsa – Tulsa -18.5 -120 FD
We have had a lot of fun and success betting on the Golden Hurricane this season and we love this afternoon spot for them to run up the score at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Tulsa started Friday’s game at Western Kentucky 3 of 19 from three, and the game still went over and they still reached 80 points. In this spot, we project them to top 95 points and flirt with 100. The Hurricane are one of the most efficient offenses around, they will get back to shooting the deep ball at better than 40 percent at home. Denver is not much of a detriment. The Pioneers are dead last in the country in KenPom defensive efficiency and 364th in opponents EFG; Denver is 365th defending the three ball and 333rd defending two-point shot. Tulsa got its groove back on Friday and won on a beautifully scripted game-winning three. We think the Golden Hurricane pick up where they left off.
Monday: Seattle at UTSA – Seattle -8.5 -105 FD
Seattle was an outfit we touched on in our futures column, and said we put some pizza money on them to win their conference. Of course, Gonzaga looks like a total wagon, but Seattle has impressed as well. The win over Washington over the weekend should galvanize them further. Maybe this is a letdown spot on the road before Christmas, but we believe it’s more likely Seattle rolls by 12 points. This is a top-60 defensive team in the country and that tends to travel. The Redhawks are also basically a top-50 three-point and two-point offense. And they are among the best in the US forcing turnovers. UTSA is 360th in opponent EFG and they are outside the top 200 in turnover rate.
Tuesday: Green Bay at Campbell – Green Bay ML
Green Bay has a fulltime head coach now! How about that? He gave up his radio show after all! Christmas miracle! In all seriousness, we told you a while back the Phoenix had turned a corner and were far from the auto fade they quickly became last year. We think they can catch the Camels in a sleepy spot here with a noon tip before the sport shuts down for the rest of the week. Campbell will struggle if it has to chase the game; they can’t score from range and they don’t get to the line and they are one of the worst teams in the nation in terms of turnovers. The Camels, ironically we suppose, are playing with far too much pace for an outfit that struggles shooting and defending. Green Bay will end up getting 4-6 points, and we don’t mind taking them. But there is plus-money potential on the ML in a week where that’s in short supply.
Seth's Picks: Kentucky vs. St. John's, Duke vs. Texas Tech and More
Dec. 19th: Seth Davis makes his picks for Saturday’s top games, including Kentucky vs. St. John’s, Duke vs. Texas Tech, and Purdue vs. Auburn
Tuesday: Morgan State at Loyola Marymount – Loyola to cover
The Morgan State Bears are stuck on a brutal West Coast trip, finishing a ridiculous gauntlet of buy-games to make their budget work. It’s taken a toll and this is a tough spot against a quality defensive team. This smells like a 25-plus point blowout for us. And we suspect it opens much more like 18-5-19.5. Loyola is a top-50 defensive club by most key metrics and Morgan’s offense is quite limited. The Bears are 350th shooting the three-ball and around No. 340 in KenPom offensive efficiency. Loyola can’t shoot free throws, which gives us some pause when backing a favorite on a big number, but this is also such a favorable matchup. Morgan lost by 47 at Cal and by 43 at DePaul and by 32 at ODU and by 14 at Mercyhurst. They obviously failed to cover all four of those away from home. This could get quite ugly, too.
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