College football is officially in its pre-playoff lull, but don’t worry, because college hoops will once again save your Saturday. Even by the standards of a season which has seen an unprecedented number of ranked-on-ranked nonconference games, Saturday’s slate is epic. We’ve got four more such matchups coming your way, as well as a couple of early Big Ten matchups in Nebraska-Illinois and Michigan-Maryland.
The balls will be bouncing nonstop from noon to midnight (and beyond), and I expect to bounce back myself from a rough outing last weekend. Here are my picks against the spread for Saturday’s top five games.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
Seth’s Analysis
This is a rematch of last season’s Sweet Sixteen game, in which the Razorbacks blew a 16-point lead midway through the second half and ended up losing 85-83 in overtime. That’s a bitter memory for the team’s four returnees, who would prefer to lean on the team’s recent two-game win streak, including a pivotal 89-80 win over Louisville at home on Dec. 3. Arkansas got 21 points, 5 rebounds and 2 steals from one of those veterans, 6-foot-10 senior forward Trevon Brazile. This team is starting to develop a defensive identity, particularly in the frontcourt. That will be critical if Arkansas is going to corral Red Raiders’ junior forward J.T. Toppin, who is averaging 20.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks. He and 6-foot-2 sophomore guard Christian Anderson (19.1 points, 7.2 assists) form a potent inside-outside duo, but in their two toughest games against Illinois and Purdue, they did not get enough help from their friends. The Red Raiders shot 25 percent from three combined in the two losses, and Arkansas ranks 28th nationally in three-point D at 27.7 percent.
Kansas at N.C. State
Seth’s Analysis
That sound you heard coming from Kansas wasn’t a cyclone, it was a sigh of relief. Not only did star freshman guard Darryn Peterson finally rejoin the lineup after missing seven games with a hamstring injury, but he looked in tiptop shape while scoring 17 points in an 80-60 win over rival Missouri on Sunday. Peterson has had six more days to rest, recover and practice, so he should be ready to do battle in what is certain to be an amped-up road environment. The Wolfpack have struggled against top competition in Will Wade’s first season, primarily due to a soft defense which ranks No. 56 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency. The Pack is especially poor at defending the three-point line, ranking 359th nationally at 49.9 percent. Kansas’ other players all got demonstrably better while Peterson was out, so now that he’s back the Jayhawks are a far more potent team. I’m frankly shocked they’re not favored.
Indiana at Kentucky
Seth’s Analysis
The Hoosiers were badly in need of a get-right game after consecutive losses to Minnesota and Louisville, and they certainly got it on Tuesday, trouncing Penn State 113-72 behind Lamar Wilkerson’s 44 points on 10 of 15 three-point shooting. He’s likely to face more defensive resistance from the Wildcats, whose effort and connectivity at that end of the floor has been missing. The Wildcats have had their struggles (that unsightly 94-59 loss to Gonzaga had former UK center Demarcus Cousins tweeting that the team had “no heart”), but they did come close to knocking off a solid North Carolina squad in Rupp Arena before letting the game slip away in the final minutes. Their problem has been from three-point range, where their 32.9 percent clip ranks 195th in the country. Beyond Wilkerson and 6-foot-7 senior guard Tucker DeVries, the Hoosiers have had a difficult time generating points. You all know I love going with desperate home teams, and you can’t get more desperate than these Wildcats.
Arizona vs. Alabama
Seth’s Analysis
Is Arizona’s turn as the No. 1 team destined to be short-lived? The Wildcats ascended to the top spot with a 97-68 shellacking of Auburn in Tucson last Saturday. That was its fourth win this season over a ranked team. Freshman guard Brayden Burries turned in his best game of the season, going for 16 points and 5 rebounds. Arizona also harassed the Tigers into shooting 6 for 25 from three-point range. On the season, however, Arizona only ranks 111th nationally in three-point D (31.4 percent), which could be a problem against one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the country. The big question for Alabama is once again injuries. Junior guard Aden Holloway missed the last two games with a wrist injury, sophomore forward Keitenn Bristow missed the last three with a sprained ankle, and junior forward Taylor Bol Bowen missed the last game with back spasms. Bristow and Bowen will be available to play, but Holloway will be a game time decision. Latrell Wrightsell Jr. is also still out with a leg injury, but keep your eye on Miami transfer Jalil Bethea, who matched his career high with 21 points in Sunday’s win over UTSA. Alabama games usually come down to the three-point line, and with the Tide playing a semi-home game, I think they’ll make enough to squeak out the win.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Seth’s Analysis
Gonzaga senior forward Graham Ike sat out Sunday’s 109-58 win over North Florida with ankle soreness, but coach Mark Few said he should be good to for this Battle in Seattle. Ike and 6-foot-10 junior forward Braden Huff are combining to average 33.4 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. That’s a lot to handle for UCLA’s frontcourt, which is capable but lacks depth. In their four games against top-100 opponents, UCLA’s reserves have averaged just 7.5 points. UCLA point guard Donovan Dent has been mostly competent (12.0 points, 6.4 assists, 2.4 turnovers), but he hasn’t had quite the impact many expected after he transferred from New Mexico, where he was named Mountain West Player of the Year last season. The Bruins will try to control the pace (they’re No. 331 on KenPom in tempo) and rely on their experience (No. 9), but at some point they’re going to have to generate more offensive firepower than they’ve shown this season. This is a big spread, but I think the Zags will be able to cover it going away.
Last time: 1-4
This season: 9-16
Meet your guide
