Greetings, Hoops HQ readers. The new season has begun and I am coming to you from a brand new platfom. The more things change, the more they stay the same: My college basketball picks are incendiary.
Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen, but as you all know, I am often wrong but never in doubt. With that spirit in mind, I am ready to launch into yet another season of making game predictions against the spread. Play me, fade me, just make sure you enjoy the games.
Let’s begin again!
Tennessee (-1.5) at Louisville, Noon, ACC Network
Yes, the Vols no longer have Dalton Knecht, but Rick Barnes appears to have added another quality transfer from the mid-major ranks in Chaz Lanier. The 6-foot-4 super senior guard averaged 19.7 points on 44 percent three-point shooting at Northern Colorado last year and had a team-high 18 points in the Vols’ season opening win over Gardner-Webb. We all expect first-year coach Pat Kelsey to spark an improvement at Louisville (nowhere to go but up!) and the Cardinals’ opening 93-45 win over Morehead State was a good start. But this is still a program that brought in 12 transfers and is undergoing a major rebuild. I frankly don’t see how Tennessee is only a one-and-a-half-point favorite.
The pick: Tennesee (-1.5)
Memphis (-1.5) at UNLV, 6 p.m., Mountain West Network
For Memphis, you’d think the start of the season would be a welcome reprieve from an off-season full of controversy, including the mass overhaul of Penny Hardaway’s coaching staff. A few hours before the Tigers opened their season against Missouri, however, 6-foot-7 guard Tyreek Smith, who recently transferred following previous stops at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and SMU, announced that he would be transferring yet again. Media reports indicated that Smith left because he was not receiving NIL money he had promised. If that’s true, it would be ironic considering the controversy that UNLV ignited in September when then-quarterback Matt Sluka abruptly left the football program claiming he too had not been paid. As for this game, the Tigers, who opened with an 83-75 home win over Missouri behind 25 points from Tulsa transfer P.J. Haggerty, should be the better team. Whether they will play like it is anyone’s guess.
The pick: Memphis (-1.5)
Arkansas vs. Baylor (-1.5), 7:30 p.m., ESPNU
Baylor really needs a do-over after being thoroughly embarrassed by Gonzaga on Monday night. Yes, the Bears’ top three players are newcomers (transfers Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier plus freshman V.J. Edgecombe), but still, that’s gotta sting. Unlike the Zags, who returned six of their top seven players from a year ago, Arkansas is a brand new team with a brand new coach. It showed as the Razorbacks only led Lipscomb by four points on Monday night with just under eight minutes to play before pulling away for a 76-60 win. Arkansas freshman guard Boogie Fland shot 1 of 8 from three in the win and the Razorbacks shot 4 for 19 from behind the arc as a group. They have some rust to work through and they’re facing a Baylor squad that is badly in need of a bounceback. The Bears are also hoping to benefit from the return of 6-foot-5 junior guard Langston Love, who missed the opener because of an ankle injury. Love’s status is day-to-day, but if he feels good in warm-ups, he might try to give it a go.
The pick: Baylor (-1.5)
Northwestern at Dayton (-4.5), 7:30 p.m., ESPN Plus
As I wrote yesterday for Hoops HQ, the Wildcats have been one of the top programs in the Big Ten the last two seasons, but despite returning a greater share of their minutes than any team in the league, they were picked to finish 16th at Big Ten Media Day. A win in Dayton Arena would go a long way towards earning the respect they are looking for. It would help if Brooks Barnhizer is available. The 6-foot-6 senior guard is Northwestern’s best returning player, but he is working his way back from a foot injury he sustained over the summer. Even if Barnhizer doesn’t play, I think the Wildcats can hang with — and possibly beat — a Flyers team that had to be extensively reworked following the loss of All-America forward Daron Holmes II and several other key players.
The pick: Northwestern (+4.5)
Auburn at Houston (-5.5), 9:30 p.m., ESPNU
What a delicious early season matchup between the top two teams on KenPom. Houston throttled Jackson State by 57 points on Monday, but Auburn’s season opener was even more impresive. The Tigers’ opponent was Vermont, which has been one of the top mid-major programs the last decade but looked like a high school team against Bruce Pearl’s group. Miles Kelly, the 6-foot-6 senior transfer from Georgia Tech, made seven three-pointers in the 94-43 win. Ten Tigers played at least 15 minutes, which indicates that this team will be deep enough for Pearl to unleash is patented pressing defense. This game will be played in the Toyota Center in Houston instead of the Fertitta Center, the Cougars’ usual home. That shouldn’t matter much, but while I expect Houston to pull it out, this seems like too big of a spread. It’s also worth noting that the Cougars are only favored by three at KenPom. I think Auburn will at least make it interesting.
The pick: Auburn (+5.5)
