Seth Davis's 2025 March Madness Bracket

NEW YORK – It’s all a blur now, but it was roughly 5:37 p.m. ET when I was handed this piece of paper in Studio 43 on the second floor of the CBS Broadcast Center in New York City:

Image of Seth Davis's filled-out Madness bracket

As you can see, I didn’t have the luxury of marinating and ruminating on my bracket picks. I had to get them done, lickety split, in time for the start of the Selection Show at 6 p.m. You probably already guessed by watching me on the show that I don’t put a ton of thought into this exercise. Now you have visual evidence.

You’ll notice that I made two changes after my initial pass. First, I switched my pick on the Sweet Sixteen game between Texas Tech and St. John’s. This was a little risky because the Red Raiders have injury issues, but if they’re healthy, I think they can match the Red Storm’s physicality, which in turn might expose St. Johns’ lack of perimeter shooting.

The second switch was made toward the end of the show when one of the researchers informed me that Iowa State guard Keshon Gilbert was going to miss the tourney. I had picked the Cyclones to go to the Final Four, but they have shown this season that if they are missing even one player, they are vulnerable. So I went with Michigan State.

The Selection Show is a wild ride. So now let’s keep on riding through the bracket. Here is a more readable presentation of all my bracket picks. No more speculating on who’s in, who’s out and who’s going where. It’s time to dive into the Madness.

SOUTH

There was some speculation as to whether Auburn had blown its No. 1 overall seed spot due to having lost three of its past four games. This is not an insignificant question because being the No. 1 overall seed means going to the South as opposed to the West, which is where Florida ended up. The Tigers have been so far out in front of the other teams that those three losses didn’t change this, but they have definitely have lost their mojo.

We shouldn’t underestimate how hard it has been for this team to carry the mantel of dominance through the brutal gauntlet of the SEC. This is a team of mid-major, juco and Division II transfers, so perhaps being knocked down a peg or two will be good for their psyche. But Auburn needs to regain that edge because there are plenty of land mines in this region. Being able to play the second weekend in Atlanta should boost their competitive energy.
We know that about 30-40 percent of No. 12 and No. 13 seeds will win at least their first game. And I would not pick a team to pull off that upset if I didn’t really believe it could play. I’ve been watching UC San Diego and Yale for weeks now, and I believe they have the ability to knock off Michigan and Texas A&M, respectively. The Wolverines have won an inordinate number of close games this season, while the Tritons have steamrolled through the Big West. Like all teams that play Michigan, UCSD will have a hard time matching up with Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, but the Tritons will have the advantage on the perimeter. And UCSD has been playing under pressure all season to remain in contention for an at-large bid. That will serve the Tritons well.

Yale, meanwhile, is even better (according to metrics) than the team that beat Auburn in the first round last year. These Bulldogs are more physical than your typical Ivy League team. If they can hang in that department with Texas A&M, which is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, then the superior shotmaking of John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng will carry the day.

Having picked both upsets, I took UCSD to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. This team is No. 36 on KenPom. Stranger things have happened than to see a team of that stature play on the second weekend.
As I mentioned at the top, I would have gone with Iowa State in the Final Four (remember, the Cyclones were up 18 on Auburn at the Maui Invitational back in November before losing), but the Gilbert injury pushed me off. New Mexico is a dangerous team here (I like the Lobos to knock off Marquette), but there are two things I really like about Michigan State. First, the Spartans were the best team all season in the Big Ten and won the regular-season title outright. Second, they lost to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, so Tom Izzo is really ticked off. The madder he gets, the deeper his teams play into March — and in this case, early April.

WEST

The first matchup that jumped out at me in his region was No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Drake. This is classic tortoise vs. the hare, though compared to Drake everyone looks hare-y. The Bulldogs rank last in the country in tempo, per KenPom. Missouri is 121^st, which might surprise some people, but the Tigers are also No. 10 in steals percentage and they love to convert in transition. Drake’s inability to take care of the ball at times is concerning, but I’ve long believed that it’s much easier to slow down a team that wants to run than speed up a team that wants to play slow. And I also believe the Bulldogs will have the best player on the floor in 6-foot-4 junior guard Bennett Stirtz. Hence, my upset special.
There are some other injuries to take into account while making your picks in this region. First, Memphis could be without third-leading scorer Tyrese Hunter, who injured his left foot during the AAC Tournament. Hunter missed the final against UAB and it’s not clear if he’s going to play. That makes the Tigers vulnerable against a Colorado State team that has won 10 in a row, claimed the Mountain West Conference Tournament title and has a future first-round pick in Nique Clifford.
I know Arkansas is getting freshman guard Boogie Fland back, but I doubt he will help much. If anything, Fland’s re-entry could throw off the Razorbacks’ rhythm. They’re also going to be without junior forward Adou Theiro, their Glue Guy. So I’ll go with Kansas even though the Jayhawks’ offense is very meh. I don’t think either of them can hang with St. John’s.
Speaking of the Red Storm, I’m in tap-the-brakes mode with this team. It was not remarked upon nearly enough this season that the Big East was down. St. John’s won the regular-season and tourney titles by overwhelming opponents physically, but at some point in this tournament, you have to make shots. And as I noted earlier, Texas Tech is the type of team that can handle the Red Storm’s toughness and also make shots. And as good as R.J. Luis is, I believe Red Raiders forward J.T. Toppin is a little bit better. So I’ll take the Red Raiders to win the game, then lose to Florida in the Elite Eight.

EAST

This region is loaded with great offensive teams! I’ve got Duke, Arizona, BYU and Alabama in my Sweet Sixteen. Pretty good chance the loser in those two games will be over 90, maybe over 100. I’m all for it!
That said, Alabama is coming in hobbling, and once again Nate Oats is questioning his team’s toughness after it got roasted by Florida 104-82 in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The larger question for the Crimson Tide is the health of 6-foot-11 senior forward Grant Nelson, who left that game in the first half with a knee injury. Oats is saying he expects Nelson to be available for the Tide’s first-round game against Robert Morris, but that is not optimal heading into the NCAA Tournament. Assuming the Tide get by the Colonials, they could have a tough test in the second round against Saint Mary’s. Randy Bennett’s Gaels had a terrific season, despite their loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final. Saint Mary’s ranks 359^th on KenPom in tempo, so remember my rules — it’s easier to slow down a team that wants to run than vice versa.
The other dangerous team here is BYU. I know Wisconsin has been terrific, but I have noticed a toughness about this Cougars team the past few weeks that, when coupled with their explosive offense, makes them scary. They won nine straight games before losing to Houston by 20 in the Big 12 Tournament. I think this version of Wisconsin is a comfortable matchup for BYU and it says here the Cougars will prove as much, not only by beating Wisconsin but also Alabama in the Sweet Sixteen.
The other injury question in this region is obviously Duke’s Cooper Flagg. From everything we’re hearing out of Duke, Flagg should be good to go for the Blue Devils’ first-round game. It helps that Raleigh is a Friday-Sunday site, so he has an extra day to recover. It might make sense to give him another two days and let him come back for the second-round game, but there is a lot of value in having Flagg get that first NCAA Tournament game under his belt so he’s not going in cold. If he’s able to play, I expect him to play. The same cannot be said, however, for 6-foot-9 junior forward Maliq Brown, who dislocated his shoulder for the second time in the Blue Devils’ ACC Tournament win over Georgia Tech. There’s a good chance Brown will be out for the entire tournament. He is an extremely valuable defender. Duke can win the NCAA title without him, but the Blue Devils will be operating with less margin for error. Even so, I like the Blue Devils to win the whole thing.

MIDWEST

First of all, folks have been sleeping on Gonzaga. I voted the Bulldogs No. 25 in my AP poll last week and they made me look prescient (again) by winning the WCC Tournament. Gonzaga has a ridiculous nine-year Sweet Sixteen streak going and while I don’t expect that to continue, it’s worth noting that they have played considerably better the past few weeks. I have them losing to Houston in the second round, but the Cougars also have a serious injury question with respect to their heart and soul, senior forward J’Wan Roberts, who injured his ankle and did not play in the final two rounds of the Big 12 Tournament. Kelvin Sampson said Roberts will be ready for the Cougars’ first-round game against SIUE, in which case I like them to not only beat Gonzaga but come out of the region.
I went a little upset crazy in the Midwest, but as I often say, there’s no slow way to drive off a cliff. History tells us that nearly half the No. 12 seeds will win their first-round games and McNeese is as good a candidate as any. Clemson is playing the tournament without sixth man Dillon Hunter, who tore his ACL. I like the Tigers, but the Cowboys have all kinds of depth, athleticism and size, not to mention a killer coach in Will Wade.
High Point over Purdue (and then over McNeese to make the Sweet Sixteen) was my biggest upset pick of the bracket. I’ve been watching the Panthers for a while, and I’m telling you they can get this done. They won the Big South regular-season title last year but faltered in the conference tournament. This season, they won it again — this time by three games — and came back from a 15-point deficit early in the second half to beat Winthrop by 13 in the conference tournament final.

Besides athleticism, balance and depth, the Panthers also have high-major size in the frontcourt. That could be an advantage against a Boilermakers squad that has soft interior defense (Purdue ranks 350^th nationally in two-point defense, per KenPom.) So if we’ve got a couple of double-digit seeds playing in the second round (which happens almost every year), one of them has to be in the Sweet Sixteen.
The question of which team emerges from the bottom half of this bracket depends largely on which Illinois team shows up. If it’s Good Illinois, the Illini could win a couple of games. But the Illini have been inconsistent (and unhealthy) all season long, and that’s not a good trait to take into this event. Mark Pope has done a great job managing Kentucky through its many injuries. I’ve been suspect of UCLA all season, so I took Utah State to pull off that mild upset. But the bottom line is none of them is likely to beat Tennessee. The Vols have a clear path to the Elite Eight, where I believe Houston’s physicality, tenacity on the glass and the magnificent play of junior point guard Milos Uzan will send the Cougars to the Final Four.