It has been a while since I had a new number one team on my ballot, so that’s the big change for this week. That decision was easy. The others, not so much. But that’s life as a Ballot Guy down the stretch in February. There are no correct answers, but everyone is entitled to my opinion.
The later we get into the season, the more valuable the metrics are. So once again, I have relied on a diverse cross-section of rankings: the NET, which is the NCAA’s official organizing tool; KPI, which is a results-based ranking that puts higher weight on great wins and bad losses; and Wins Above Bubble, which is purely based on results. I’ve listed those ranks beside each team in order. The number in parentheses reflects where the team was ranked on my ballot last week.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday night.
DROPPED OUT: Auburn (24)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Arkansas (18-20-20), BYU (20-23-18), Utah State (23-21-30), Saint Mary’s (26-32-38), Iowa (27-43-27), Villanova (30-27-31), Indiana (31-44-44), Clemson (32-29-24), Miami (35-34-46), Texas (37-52-51)
Notes on the votes
• If any of my fellow AP voters don’t have Michigan as No. 1 this week, their voting privileges should be suspended permanently. Arizona drops behind Duke for losing at Kansas and at home to Texas Tech, but the far greater concern for the Wildcats is the long-term health of freshman forward Koa Peat. He missed the entire second half of the Texas Tech loss with a lower body injury. Arizona was already a not-so-deep squad (No. 261 on KenPom in bench minutes), so the Cats can ill afford to lose a starter of Peat’s caliber as March approaches.
• Texas Tech’s win in Tucson means I have four Big 12 teams in my top seven. Houston has been drilling teams during its six-game win streak, but the Cougars have a brutal gauntlet coming up at Iowa State tonight, against Arizona at home on Saturday, and then at Kansas next Monday. I predict they win two of those three. Iowa State had a mixed week with a road loss at TCU and then that 18-point destruction of the Jayhawks. And Texas Tech made the loudest statement of all with its OT win in Tucson. I wouldn’t say the game has an asterisk because of the Peat injury, but it was obviously a factor, and the game did go into overtime. The Red Raiders have recent losses to UCF (away) and Kansas (home) to take into account, but they also have three of the best wins of any team in the country over Duke (neutral), Houston (home) and Arizona (away). That was enough fo me to rank the Red Raiders ahead of their metrics.
• I was hesitant to vault Florida too high on my ballot the last couple of weeks due to its home loss to Auburn, but that game now feels like an aberration. The Gators, who won at Georgia by 20 and beat Kentucky by 9 at home last week, are the class of the SEC. They’re now top 10 in the NET and have moved up to No. 5 at KenPom. Make no mistake, this team is a very real threat to repeat as national champs. The only question the Gators make enough three-pointers, but they shot 37 percent in those two wins. They have an easy week coming up with games against South Carolina (home) and Ole Miss (away).
• I am also once again ranking St. John’s ahead of its metrics. The Red Storm validated my faith by winning at Providence, and UConn validated my decision to put it behind St. John’s last week by having to grind out a win at home against Georgetown. The Huskies will probably win the rematch with St. John’s in Hartford on Feb. 25, but I think the Red Storm are a vastly improved team over the last six weeks, and the metrics, which tend to lag behind, will eventually reflect that. If you look at BartTorvik’s rankings since St. Johns’s 12-game win streak started, the Red Storm is ranked No. 13 overall and UConn is No. 15.
• Purdue had a solid week with that crazy back-and-forth overtime win at Nebraska (the Boilermakers led by 22 points early in the second half and by 14 with under three minutes to play) and a dominant 21-point win at Iowa. I have a soft rule that if one team is ranked ahead of another in all three metrics, I will probably put them ahead. In this case the Boilermakers are two spots behind Kansas in Wins Above Bubble. Since I had the Jayhawks ahead last week, they stayed in that order given that Kansas knocked off undefeated No. 1 Arizona before losing at Iowa State. I kept Kansas behind UConn for that same reason.
• Wisconsin’s metrics may not be top 25-worthy, but you can’t do much better than winning at Illinois (although the Illini were down two starters and still took the game into OT) and blitzing Michigan State at home by 21 points. The Badgers have lost two games the last six weeks by a total of three points. They also have a win at Michigan on Jan. 10 on their resume. Wisconsin plays at Ohio State Tuesday and hosts Iowa on Sunday.
• Louisville is up to No. 12 in the NET, and while the Cards are much lower in the results metrics, those numbers don’t reflect how good this team is now that freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. is fully back to where he was before he injured his back. If anything, Brown is a better player now. It’s difficult to come back from a back injury because your conditioning is limited, so it took Brown a few games to get his groove back. But now he’s grooving, scoring 45 and 29 points, respectively, last week in wins over NC State and Baylor. The Cardinals play SMU (road) and Georgia Tech (home) this week, and since they’ve already played Duke twice (and lost both), I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t lose another regular season game.
• I lost count of the number of times I’ve described Auburn as “on-again, off-again.” No team has shuffled in and out of my ballot more than the Tigers, and it seems like the vacillate every week. So now they’re out again following losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas.
• As for my Almost Famous list, I wanted to shoehorn Arkansas back onto my ballot, and their metrics dictate a top-20 ranking. But I couldn’t quite find the space. Yes, the Razorbacks have won six of their last seven games, often by large margins, but their win on Saturday did come against an Auburn squad that was sitting its leading scorer, Keyshawn Hall. If you look over the last two months, the Razorbacks’ best wins were at home over Tennessee (Jan. 3) and Vanderbilt (Jan. 20). Otherwise, they lost their top games to Auburn and Georgia on the road, and Kentucky at home. They’ve got another challenging week coming up with games at Alabama and home against Missouri. Two wins there, and I guarantee they’ll have a number next to their name next week.
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