While we don’t have any new No. 1 seeds this week, we do have a new order of the No. 1 seeds. Arizona finally loses its spot atop the mountain after falling at home to Texas Tech. This was the Wildcats second straight loss and, all of a sudden, there is no guarantee that they will even be a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday. Michigan is now the clear top No. 1 seed, as it leads the nation in nearly every single resume and predictive metric. The Wolverines had no trouble handling UCLA on Saturday and continuing what has been a banner year. Michigan is also 9-0 against Quad 1 opponents and has 18 wins against Quad 1 and Quad 2 combined, which easily leads the nation. The Wolverines and Duke face off in Washington, DC on Saturday in a game that very well could determine who ends up as the overall No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
We ended up seeing some key losses by bubble teams over the weekend. Coming off a big win at Clemson, Virginia Tech suffered a Quad 3 loss at home to Florida State. This was a team that had just entered the field, but this is why nearly every game is so important. Also, Ohio State is now 0-8 against Quad 1 after losing to Virginia, Missouri dropped a home contest to fellow bubble team Texas, and Oklahoma State failed to secure a win on its home floor as it lost to TCU.
Another critical outcome from the weekend that greatly affected the bracket was when Santa Clara lost to Gonzaga. The Broncos had been leading the WCC, so we had them as the automatic bid up until now. As a result, that opens up another slot for an at-large bid. The funny thing is, Santa Clara now turns into one of those teams on the bubble fighting for a bid. Did the Broncos remain in the field? Let’s find out.
Here are some thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- TCU added wins over Iowa State and at Oklahoma State this week to move from a team that was in my next four out, to suddenly, a team that is now in my last four in. Not only are the Horned Frogs playing really good basketball, but they are also helped by the fact that Florida and Wisconsin (two teams they beat on a neutral court earlier in the season) are absolutely on fire. The Gators are playing as well as any team in the country and Wisconsin now has wins on the road at Michigan and at Illinois.
- I’m officially getting concerned about Auburn. The Tigers didn’t have a bad loss this weekend as they fell on the road at Arkansas, but the issue is that their overall record now stands at 14-11. This is a team that already has wins at Florida and against St. John’s, but really needs to be careful their record doesn’t get much closer to .500. Big game on Wednesday at Mississippi State.
- Miami was a team I had out of the field at this time last week, but the Hurricanes had the best week of any bubble team. They started last week without having any wins over at-large teams, but ended it with a win over North Carolina and another big resume-boosting victory at NC State. For now, Miami can take a deep breath, as it is settled in as a single-digit seed at the moment.
- Houston is knocking on the door for a No. 1 seed. And this very well could be the week that it gets there. The Cougars have significant opportunities this week at Iowa State (Monday) and against Arizona (Saturday). Obviously, a 2-0 week would lift Houston to the No. 1 line, but it’s possible even just one win can get them there based on how everyone else performs. The only thing lacking on the Cougars resume are Quad 1A wins, and this week they now have the chance to correct their only profile blemish.
- Texas Tech won at Arizona on Saturday, which ended up lifting the Red Raiders’ overall seed up to a top-four protected seed. They also own wins over Houston and against Duke on a neutral court. Depending on how Texas Tech finishes the season, I believe the potential is there for it to get potentially as high as a No. 2 seed.
- SMU is another team that is far from safe in this field. The Mustangs have lost three of their last five games after a suffering one-point loss at Syracuse on Saturday. Important mini-homestand coming up as they get Louisville and Boston College before having to go out west to face Cal and Stanford. SMU is 0-4 against Quad 1A opponents and only has two wins over at-large teams, so a massive opportunity awaits on Tuesday against Louisville.
Last 4 Byes
Auburn, SMU, Georgia, Indiana
Last 4 In
Missouri, TCU, UCLA, Santa Clara
First 4 Out
California, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, New Mexico
Next 4 Out
Ohio State, Seton Hall, VCU, West Virginia
Bracketology
Morgan State Bears
Long Island Sharks
Missouri Tigers
Santa Clara Broncos
NJIT Highlanders
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
UCLA Bruins
TCU Horned Frogs
Michigan Wolverines
Merrimack Warriors
Utah State Aggies
Texas Longhorns
Arkansas Razorbacks
South Florida Bulls
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saint Louis Billikens
UCLA Bruins
/
TCU Horned Frogs
Florida Gators
North Dakota State Bison
Wisconsin Badgers
Auburn Tigers
Iowa State Cyclones
Navy Midshipmen
UConn Huskies
UT Martin Skyhawks
NC State Wolfpack
Texas A&M Aggies
Virginia Cavaliers
Belmont Bruins
Alabama Crimson Tide
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
North Carolina Tar Heels
Missouri Tigers
/
Santa Clara Broncos
Nebraska Cornhuskers
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Villanova Wildcats
USC Trojans
Houston Cougars
Austin Peay Governors
Arizona Wildcats
Morgan State Bears
/
Long Island Sharks
Iowa Hawkeyes
Miami Hurricanes
Tennessee Volunteers
Yale Bulldogs
Michigan State Spartans
High Point Panthers
Louisville Cardinals
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
Kansas Jayhawks
Portland State Vikings
Clemson Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs
Purdue Boilermakers
South Alabama Jaguars
Duke Blue Devils
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
/
NJIT Highlanders
Saint Mary's Gaels
UCF Knights
St. John's Red Storm
Liberty Flames
Vanderbilt Commodores
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
BYU Cougars
Indiana Hoosiers
Gonzaga Bulldogs
California Baptist Lancers
Kentucky Wildcats
SMU Mustangs
Illinois Fighting Illini
Wright State Raiders
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| SEC | 11 |
| Big Ten | 10 |
| ACC | 8 |
| Big 12 | 8 |
| Big East | 3 |
| WCC | 3 |
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