The Super Bowl is over, which means it’s time for college basketball to take center stage. If last week is any indication — and if Saturday especially was any indication —then there is no doubt that this sport is ready for its closeup.
There were lots of riveting matchups to track, but at this stage of the season, it’s hard to really shake up a top 25 ballot. Doing rankings is more about adjusting and tweaking this time of year, but I had plenty to work with this week.
I made one small tweak in my metrics usage by substituting the NET, which is the NCAA’s official organizing tool, for KenPom. The later we get in the season, the more the NET reflects what’s happening. The NET was formulated to mirror the efficiency components of KenPom as well. I am continuing to use two results-based metrics in KPI and Wins Above Bubble. Each team’s rank in those metrics is listed in order. The number in parentheses reflects where they were ranked on last week’s ballot.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday evening.
DROPPED OUT: BYU (16), Texas A&M (24)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Iowa (18-34-27), Utah State (25-19-30), Arkansas (26-25-20), NC State (27-23-32), Saint Mary’s (29-32-38), Clemson (30-24-24), Villanova (32-28-31)
Notes on the votes
• Duke is a prime example of why single results don’t shake up the rankings in February. The Blue Devils should have moved down after losing at North Carolina, but it was a) a road game b) against a ranked team and c) they lost in the last second. Plus, Illinois lost at Michigan State, so there’s no reason for the Illini to jump over them. Duke has 10 Quad 1 wins, which is two more than the next highest-total of eight by Arizona, and it has top-three metrics across the board. And finally, UConn lost at St. John’s, so that allowed Duke to move up a spot.
• I’m guessing that I dropped UConn more than most of my fellow AP voters. This is a good example of how I see a top 25 ballot as different than a mock NCAA Tournament bracket. I’ve been writing for weeks that the Huskies were looking vulnerable as they won by small margins against mediocre Big East competition. But they hadn’t lost so I didn’t want to move them down. Well UConn did lose on Friday night, and it seemed clear that St. John’s was the better team despite having the weaker overall resume. So I wanted to rank the Red Storm ahead of UConn, but there was only so high I could vault the Red Storm given their metrics. Let’s see how the rematch goes Feb. 25 in Hartford.
• Michigan State’s win over Illinois was impressive, but it also came three days after the Spartans lost at Minnesota, which had lost its previous seven games. It was a close call for me between Kansas and Michigan State. The Spartans are ranked four spots ahead of KU on KenPom, but I think the Jayhawks are the better team as long as Darryn Peterson stays healthy. They can prove as much Monday night when No. 1 Arizona comes to town.
• By my lights, Florida has established itself as the top team in the SEC. The Gators had two dominant wins last week against Alabama at home and at Texas A&M. It’s interesting that the Gators’ predictive metrics (they’re also No. 7 on KenPom) are ahead of their results metrics. I suspect that won’t last much longer. Florida plays at Georgia Wednesday and then hosts Kentucky on Saturday.
• Purdue was fortunate to escape Oregon at home. The Boilermakers’ metrics remain strong, but they are showing cracks. The Tar Heels got rewarded for that win over Duke, and Gonzaga got dinged for losing at Portland. The Zags still have strong metrics, as they have all season.
• I’ve got a bunch of SEC teams towards the bottom of my ballot. It’s not easy to honor all the head-to-head results, but I did feel it was important to rank Kentucky ahead of Tennessee given that the Wildcats won both regular season meetings. Alabama needed to be rewarded for winning at Auburn. And the Tigers needed to stay ranked based on their overall resume and especially that Jan. 24 win at Florida.
• I’ve been sounding the alarm about BYU for a while now, and the Cougars validated those concerns by losing four straight, including last week at Oklahoma State and at home against Houston. That’s five losses in their last six games, so they’re gone for now.
• Miami of Ohio doesn’t have the metrics or quality wins to warrant being ranked, but undefeated is undefeated. The RedHawks’ Wins Above Bubble rank is just enough justification to leave them on my ballot. I’ll drop them as soon as they lose, but if they don’t win the MAC Tournament they could be one of the most fascinating bubble cases we have seen in a long, long time.
• The most interesting team on my Almost Famous list is NC State. The Wolfpack have reeled off six straight wins since their home loss to Georgia Tech on Jan. 17. They have a huge stretch coming up against Louisville, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia, with a home game against Duke coming on March 2. NC State is 3-4 in Quad 1 and 11-5 against Quads 1 and 2, so they’re in good position for the NCAA Tournament if they can win a couple of those.
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