Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season . As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 44-37-1 and +$46 on the season and ready to begin betting the best sporting event of the year! Today we’re making three sharp plays on the first day of glorious March Madness action.
Let’s get to it.
14 Montana vs 3 Wisconsin, 1:30 p.m., TNT
Line: Wisconsin -17, Over/Under: 152
The Pick: $15 on Wisconsin -17 (-110)
The Madness has arrived, and this first-round matchup showcases a Wisconsin squad that could be poised for a bracket-busting run thanks to their nation-leading free throw accuracy and perimeter-oriented attack that ranks 18th nationally in three point frequency at 48.1 percent. The Badgers’ defense stands as their true calling card, ranking 2nd in limiting opponent rim attempts while maintaining elite ball security to maximize their methodical, well-spaced offensive sets (38th in spacing). Montana counters with legitimate efficiency at the rim (25th nationally) and respectable three point shooting (62nd), but the Grizzlies’ defensive approach of limiting three point attempts (54th) ironically plays right into Wisconsin’s strength of creating quality looks from deep regardless of opponent tendencies. The fatal flaw for Montana appears on the glass, where they rank a catastrophic 351st in offensive rebounding percentage (19.7 percent), essentially guaranteeing one-and-done possessions against a disciplined Wisconsin defense that rarely allows second chances. This fundamental mismatch, coupled with both teams ranking similarly poor in forcing turnovers (Wisconsin 332nd, Montana 292nd), heavily favors the more efficient, better shooting Badgers to control this game from the opening tip and methodically extend their lead throughout, making the 17-point spread eminently coverable even if the final minutes feature some walk-ons getting their One Shining Moment.
13 Yale vs 4 Texas A&M, 7:35 p.m. TBS
Line: Texas A&M -7.5,
Over/Under: 139.5
The Pick: $15 on Yale +7.5 (-110)
This first round 5-12 matchup opens with a classic stylistic clash as the Bulldogs look to shock an Aggies squad that dominates the offensive glass (1st nationally with 40.2% OREB%) but leaves the back door wide open, ranking an abysmal 359th defending shots at the rim. Yale’s elite defensive rebounding should neutralize A&M’s greatest strength while their exceptional passing could exploit the Aggies’ glaring weakness at rim protection, creating high-percentage looks in a tournament where every bucket carries championship weight. The metrics scream upset potential with both teams ranking among the nation’s worst at defending the three point line (359th for Yale, 352nd for A&M), but Yale’s low turnover rate gives them extra possessions to capitalize on an Aggies team that struggles mightily with spacing and shoots the three as if blindfolded (350th in efficiency). Texas A&M’s free throw parade could keep them afloat, but Yale’s disciplined defense limiting rim attacks should force the Aggies into contested jumpers while the Bulldogs’ patient approach keeps this dance card within single digits. In the madness of March where statistical anomalies become Cinderella stories, Yale’s profile suggests they’re well-equipped to hang with an overseeded Aggies team that, despite their swagger, has fundamental flaws that tournament pressure tends to magnify.
10 Utah State vs 7 UCLA, First Round, TNT
Line: UCLA -5.5, Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $15 on Utah State +5.5 (-110)
The first day of the First Round delivers yet another compelling stylistic clash as the Bruins and Aggies bring contrasting approaches that create real value for the underdog. UCLA’s defensive identity revolves around forcing turnovers (5th nationally) and preventing rim attacks (17th fewest), but their vulnerability to allowing three point attempts (336th most) creates a potential breaking point against the right opponent. Enter Utah State, who boasts elite passing (11th best) that should neutralize UCLA’s ball-pressure while attacking the rim at high frequency with elite efficiency to draw fouls. The Aggies’ own defensive weakness — allowing three point attempts at nearly the same rate as UCLA — is less concerning given UCLA’s offense isn’t constructed to exploit this vulnerability, instead relying on methodical pick-and-roll sets and post-ups that play directly into the hands of an Aggies team that almost never posts up themselves. The tournament atmosphere often rewards offensive versatility and rim pressure — two areas where Utah State holds distinct advantages — making this spread simply too generous in a game that should come down to the final possessions.
