Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s games in college basketball. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
With an 8-2 run over our last three articles, we are up to 22-14-1 and +$78 so far in plays for Hoops HQ. Today, I bring an action packed set of picks to fuel the first Saturday of March! Betting lines are from the time of publication.
Good luck and remember to bet responsibly.
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Creighton at Xavier, 4 p.m., Fox
Line: Xavier -2.5 , Over/Under: 150
The Pick: $20 on Xavier -2.5 (-105)
Xavier ranks as one of the nation’s elite shooting teams by every expected metric, sitting in the top-20 for both free throw and three-point shooting efficiency. The Musketeers create exceptional spacing through pinpoint passing, allowing their shooters clean looks that translate to Shot Quality rating their net expected per possession gain as the best in the Big East. While they strategically prioritize defensive rebounding over crashing the offensive glass, this approach makes perfect sense for a team that consistently converts its first attempts, eliminating the need for second chances. Creighton might be more secure on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but the Blue Jays’ fundamental weakness is their inability to consistently attack the rim despite being arguably the nation’s most efficient team when they do so. Despite Ryan Kalkbrenner’s all around dominance, Creighton’s inability to force turnovers should give Xavier all the possessions and advantages it needs to control this Big East bubble clash and cover the one possession spread.
Georgia at Texas, 8 p.m., ESPN2
Line: Texas -5.5 , Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $1o on Texas -5.5 (-110)
The Georgia Bulldogs are riding high after their upset win over Florida, but ShotQuality metrics reveal this was more about the Gators’ cold shooting than Georgia’s defensive prowess, with Florida underperforming their expected output by nearly 20 points. This short line suggests these teams are closely rated, but Texas remains one of the conference’s premier rim-attacking squads despite their season-long battle with poor shooting luck. The Longhorns’ desperate need for wins to solidify their tournament resume adds extra motivation, but even without that narrative, the analytical edge strongly favors Texas in this matchup. Georgia’s victory over Florida has all the makings of a classic “letdown,” where a team follows an emotional high with a performance regression to their statistical means, or worse. Smart money should be backing the slept-on Longhorns who should finally see some positive regression in their finishing ability at home.
West Virginia at 25 BYU, 10 p.m., ESPN2
Line: BYU -9.5, Over/Under: 140
The Pick: $10 on BYU -9.5 (-110)
The Cougars exhibit virtually every trait you want when backing a team against the spread—elite three-point shooting, strong rim finishing and textbook screen-and-roll execution—all contributing to the nation’s sixth-best halfcourt offense and fourth-best effective field goal percentage according to KenPom. BYU has held significantly stronger opponents than West Virginia to meager offensive outputs, which spells trouble for a Mountaineers squad that plays at a crawling tempo and struggles to earn trips to the free throw line. WVU will need to connect from beyond the arc at an above-average rate just to stay competitive, but its rebounding disadvantage against the larger Cougars and their inability to generate easy baskets will prove too much to overcome. As March approaches, expect BYU to flex their muscles in a statement win that exceeds this single-digit spread with room to spare.
Utah St. at Colorado St., 4 p.m., FS1
Line: Colorado State -2.5, Over/Under: 151.5
The Pick: $10 on Utah State +2.5 (-110)
Utah State features one of the nation’s premier passing attacks, facilitating its ability to attack the rim at the 14th highest frequency in Division I while converting those opportunities at an efficiency rate that ranks 39th nationally. The Aggies complement this offensive approach by forcing turnovers and earning free throws at top-50 rates, creating a potent formula for road success. While their defense does allow a high volume of three-point attempts, which can create variance-driven outcomes that make them appear worse than their underlying metrics suggest, this pendulum swings both ways. Colorado State shares similar strengths in passing and rim conversion, but the crucial distinction lies in the Rams’ puzzling reluctance to attack the basket, ranking outside the top-300 in frequency despite their efficiency. Despite Colorado State’s home-court advantage and defensive reputation, the data suggests Utah State remains undervalued in the marketplace, providing just enough edge to keep this game within a single possession and cover the modest spread.
