It’s Valentine’s Day, everyone, and you know what really warms the cockles of my heart? Winning! I finally had a lot of that last Saturday, and as a Valentine’s Day treat to all of you, I intend to serve up another batch today like a box of chocolates.
And much like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get with college hoops, which is why we are so hopelessly devoted to this sport. So as we approach March Madness (Selection Sunday is four weeks from tomorrow), I invite you to settle in, enjoy the games, and savor every sweet morsel of hoopy goodness.
Here are my picks against the spread for the day’s top games.
Clemson at Duke
Seth’s Analysis
The ACC may be improved, but the Blue Devils haven’t faced much resistance. That is, until last Saturday’s epic contest at North Carolina, where the Blue Devils blew an 11-point second-half lead and lost on Seth Trimble’s three-pointer at the buzzer. They rebounded with a 70-54 win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday, but they had to play without their starting center, 6-foot-11 sophomore Patrick Ngongba, who broke his hand in the loss to the Tar Heels. He is listed as probable, which is good since Duke could use all the big bodies it can muster against a Clemson squad that is deep, experienced and physical. That last quality was lacking in the Tigers’ 76-66 loss at home to Virginia Tech on Wednesday, but they came into that game 10-1 in the ACC, so they were due for a clunker. I have no doubt they will bring their A game to Cameron Indoor Stadium. Clemson can’t match Duke in terms of future NBA talent, but this is a typical Brad Brownell team that is old, disciplined, plays stout defense (No. 16 on KenPom in adjusted deficiency) and manages pace (No. 330 in tempo). The Tigers may not pull out the win, but they’ll give Duke a game.
UCLA at Michigan
Seth’s Analysis
I never really thought Michigan was going to lose at Northwestern Wednesday night, but the Wolverines sure made things interesting. They trailed by 16 points with 14 minutes to play, but then turned on the jets and pulled away for an 87-75 win. The unlikely hero was 6-foot-2 sophomore guard L.J. Cason, who came off the bench to score a career-high 18 points. That shows just how deep and potent this Michigan team is, which spells bad news for UCLA even if it does get back Skyy Clark, the 6-foot-3 senior guard who has missed the last 10 games with a hamstring injury. Sophomore guard Trent Perry has averaged 16.7 points (on 48.8 percent three-point shooting), 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.5 steals while starting in Clark’s place, so Mick Cronin will have the luxury of working Clark back into the rotation slowly. But the Bruins were already hurting for depth before Clark went out, and it will be a tall order for them to handle a Michigan juggernaut that is returning home after a subpar game with the No. 1 ranking in its sights.
Kansas at Iowa State
Seth’s Analysis
The good news here is that Darryn Peterson is going to play for Kansas. We think. Then again, given that the Jayhawks knocked off undefeated No. 1 Arizona without him, maybe we are paying too much attention to Peterson and not enough to 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Flory Bidunga, who had 23 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in the win. The Jayhawks will need all hands on deck to win in Hilton Coliseum against an Iowa State squad that will not only be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss at TCU Tuesday night but also thirsting to avenge the 21-point drubbing it took in Allen Fieldhouse back on Jan. 13. It’s hard to pick against the Cyclones in that building, but these are two elite defensive teams who can be a little uneven at the offensive end, and the Jayhawks are 16-8 against the spread.
Kentucky at Florida
Seth’s Analysis
There’s no doubt the Gators have distinguished themselves as the best team in the SEC. They have won four straight games by an average of 27.3 points, including Wednesday’s 86-66 thrashing of Georgia in Athens. Xaivian Lee, the much-scrutinized transfer from Princeton, had his best game in three weeks, going for a team-high 18 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds and 3 steals. But there’s also no doubt Kentucky is playing much better, tougher basketball of late, which Wildcats Mark Pope attributes to the roster continuity he has been able to establish after a rash of injuries. The Wildcats have won eight of their last nine and came back from 14 points down to knock off Tennessee at home 74-71 last Saturday. Kentucky didn’t have a midweek game, so that gave Pope and his crew extra time to prepare for this mega matchup in Gainesville. I’m not saying the Cats are going to pull off the upset, but I do think they’ll be competitive.
Purdue at Iowa
Seth’s Analysis
That was some wacky game the Boilermakers played in Lincoln on Tuesday night. They sprinted to a 22-point lead and led by 14 with under three minutes to play, but then had to hang on for dear life in an 80-77 overtime win. It didn’t help that Purdue shot just 11 for 20 from the foul line. Now the Boilermakers are hitting the road to play an Iowa squad that is coming off its worst game of the season, a 77-70 road loss to a Maryland team that came in with a 2-10 Big Ten record. The Hawkeyes had been on a six-game win streak so perhaps they were due to get clipped, but as usual, they need to get more production from players other than Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging 27.0 points (on 46.7 percent three-point shooting), 4.6 assists, 2.3 rebounds and 1.4 steals over his last seven games. Even though the Hawkeyes play at a snail’s pace (No. 350 on KenPom in tempo), they rank 10th in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Purdue should have found some confidence with that win at Nebraska, but I love a home underdog, especially when it’s coming off a bad game and is 15-9 against the spread. And the Boilermakers have had a hard time guarding the perimeter all season.
Last Week: 4-1
Season total: 28-37
Meet your guide
