Daily Best Bets for Monday, March 10: Arkansas St. Troy, Charleston UNC Wilmington and San Francisco Gonzaga

#4 Arkansas St vs. #3 Troy, 7 p.m., ESPN

Line: Ark. St. -2, Over/Under 137.5

The Bet: $15 on Ark St -2 (-110)

The championship matchup in the Sun Belt conference pits a three point bombing Arkansas State squad against a defensively minded Troy team that thrives on the offensive glass. Arkansas State creates spacing with their high frequency outside shooting while still maintaining a respectable rim attack, whereas Troy focuses primarily on interior scoring despite their inability to convert efficiently. Troy’s defense allows opponents to attack the rim and, on offense, they rely heavily on shot selection (top fifth percentile) to compensate for abysmal shot making (bottom tenth percentile). When these teams met in the regular season, each similarly lost on their home court with the expected numbers pointing towards a win. The season-long turnover issues plaguing Troy combined with their inefficient perimeter shooting will ultimately be too much to overcome, preventing them from punching their ticket to the Big Dance. I’m taking Arkansas State to cover the short number.

#3 Charleston vs. #2 UNC Wilmington, 8:30 p.m., CBSSN

Line: UNCW -4, Over/Under 147.5

The Bet: $15 on Charleston +4 (-110)

Charleston appears undervalued against UNC Wilmington in this Coastal Athletic Association semifinal matchup where contrasting styles will determine the outcome. The Cougars operate at a quick tempo with excellent spacing, enabling efficient three point shooting and strong passing, while their half court offense excels in pick-and-roll sets and off-the-dribble threes. Defensively, Charleston forces more midrange shots than any team in the conference—a perfect counter to Wilmington’s offense which ranks 66th nationally in midrange frequency, often settling for the subpar shot type rather than getting to the rim. The Seahawks do generate extra possessions through offensive rebounding and draw a healthy number of fouls, but their post-up heavy approach plays into Charleston’s defensive strengths. While Wilmington has underperformed expectations in conference play and struggled at the rim, Charleston’s ability to force those midrange attempts should give them enough defensive stops, and the low per-possession output required, to keep this contest competitive, cover the spread, and maybe even win.

#3 San Francisco vs. #2 Gonzaga, 11:30 p.m., ESPN2

Line: Gonzaga -14.5, Over/Under 153.5

The Bet: $15 on Under 153.5 (-110)

Gonzaga is a heavy favorite against San Francisco on an accurately priced line, so the total presents the better betting opportunity in a matchup where both teams have consistently played beneath their ShotQuality scoring expectations. This year’s Bulldogs squad ranks just 48th in tempo—a far cry from top-10 pace teams of the Timme-Suggs era—preferring a more methodical half court approach that leverages their post-up game and rim efficiency through well executed pick-and-rolls. San Francisco’s defensive rebounding prowess should limit Gonzaga’s second-chance opportunities, while their perimeter defense excels at preventing three point attempts, instead forcing opponents into a midrange game with limited rim attacks. As we’ve seen throughout March, when every possession takes on heightened importance, these tournament games tend to slow down significantly, making the under an appealing option for this late-night West Coast Conference semifinal.