An undefeated regular season, a hot streak of cardiac wins and now, a Quad Four loss. The Miami (OH) team that looked like a shoo-in for its conference championship fell Thursday afternoon to No. 8 UMass Amherst in the MAC quarterfinal. In trademark fashion, the RedHawks outshot the Minutemen from the arc but were dominated physically. Miami lost in the paint and on the boards (41-24), opening the door for UMass to grab a whopping 23 second chance points.
It was Miami’s third match against Massachusetts this year, including a Jan. 27th bout in which the Minutemen led by 10 late in the first half. In their previous victories, the RedHawks depended on a career performance from 6-foot-6 guard Eian Elmer (30 pts, Jan. 27th) and a balanced attack which forced UMass into foul trouble (Feb. 17th). This time, finesse was no match for brute force.
Miami’s elimination opens the door for No. 2 Akron — led by RedHawks coach Travis Steele’s half-brother — to steal an NCAA Tournament bid. It would mark Akron’s third consecutive year as MAC Champion.
The loss gives unfortunate credence to doubts from analysts, notably ex-Auburn coach Bruce Pearl, who claimed last week that Miami — ranked 355th in strength of schedule by KenPom — would crumble against a high-major opponent.
“They’re not built for the grind of a Big Ten or even a Big East. In the Big East Conference this year, they’d finish in the lower half” Pearl told Barstool Sports. “They may not finish last. But I tell you what: I’m not so sure.”
Hoops HQ Bracketologist Brad Wachtel pegged Miami as an 11-seed and at-large qualifier in his latest bracket projection. While the 31-win RedHawks were widely considered locks for the NCAA Tournament, a quarterfinal exit in the MAC Tournament changes the equation. They are certain to slide multiple seed lines. Assuming they do receive a bid, the selection committee will have one less at-large bid to distribute, a major development in a contentious bubble year. Affected teams could include Stanford, California, Virginia Tech or Steven Pearl’s Auburn Tigers.
In January, RedHawks guard Brant Byers summed up Miami’s ethos for Hoops HQ: “All trust.” With three days until Selection Sunday, the RedHawks have no recourse but to trust in their work and pray for an invite to the Big Dance.
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