Selection Sunday Eve has arrived and as we look forward to filling out our brackets, there’s still work left to be done to figure out who will be in the bracket, where they will be seeded and where they will get sent. We’ll start with the No. 1 seeds where it appears we are pretty much locked in with Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida. If Florida happens to lose in the semifinals of the SEC tournament and UConn wins the Big East tournament, there’s a chance the Huskies jump the Gators, but even that is no guarantee.
We always hear the selection committee talk about “scrubbing” of the teams and their seeds. This is something most bracketologists do on the regular, but today I will continue to line teams up that are seeded near each other and determine if a slight adjustment needs to be made. I think while it’s extremely important to pay attention to overall metrics, it’s also paramount not to overlook how teams finish against each of the quadrants. A team that has significant wins away from home (ahem, Wisconsin) might get seeded better than what their metrics tell you. Conversely, a team with poor predictive metrics, but strong overall wins (let’s say, UCF) have a chance for a better seed than what the predictive metrics say. Then there are teams that have strong predictive metrics, but not a whole lot of substance (Iowa fits nicely). The seeds of these teams need to be adjusted accordingly.
The last item that has to be noted are injuries (Texas Tech). A team isn’t just what their resume says they are. It’s vital to dig deeper. And if a key player is out for the remainder of the season, then that team has to be judged based on what they have moving forward. SMU is a team to monitor as BJ Edwards has missed the last five games for the Mustangs which has resulted in a 1-4 record. The school came out with a statement on Friday saying that Edwards will be back for the NCAA Tournament. Hard to know what the truth is or how the selection committee will judge them. History says the injury and poor play will matter. And for that reason, I have my doubts about SMU getting in to the tournament.
I think I have a pretty good handle on the bubble right now. Although there is still plenty that can happen, including how the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West tournaments finish up.
Here is how I see the bubble right now:
I think there are three at-large bids up for grab among this group of teams: VCU, SMU, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn and New Mexico.
Here are the bubble games that matter today:
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss is the potential bid-stealer in the SEC tournament to watch out for. The Rebels are trying to do the unthinkable.
Saint Louis vs. Dayton
Every bubble team needs to be rooting for Saint Louis in this one. If the Billikens fail to win, that means the Atlantic-10 is guaranteed to be a multi-bid league and there will be one fewer at-large bid available.
VCU (Last 4 In) vs. St. Joseph’s
This is another game that VCU cannot afford to lose. The Rams still do not have any wins over at-large teams and a loss to the Hawks would be a Quad 3. Every bubble team will have their eyes on this game.
Utah State vs. San Diego State
While Utah State has all but wrapped up an at-large bid, a loss to San Diego State would mean that the Mountain West will be a multi-bid league. It also means there would be another bid-stealer. Huge game for everyone on the bubble to watch. All these bubble teams should be rooting for the Aggies to come out victorious.
“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.
“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.
“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.
“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.
Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:
- Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
- Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams
Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:
- A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
- A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
- An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75
First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:
Last Four Byes
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Texas A&M Aggies
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NC State Wolfpack
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Santa Clara Broncos
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Missouri Tigers
Last Four Teams In
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Miami Ohio Red Hawks
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VCU Rams
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Texas Longhorns
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SMU Mustangs
First Four Teams Out
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Oklahoma Sooners
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New Mexico Lobos
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Auburn Tigers
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Indiana Hoosiers
Next Four Teams Out
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Oklahoma State Cowboys
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California Golden Bears
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Virginia Tech Hokies
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Stanford Cardinal
ACC
Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (6), Louisville (6), Miami (7), Clemson (7)
Invitations Printed: NC State (11)
On the List…for Now: SMU (Last 4 In)
The Uninvited: Stanford (Next 4 Out), California (Next 4 Out), Virginia Tech (Next 4 Out)
SMU
The Good: No bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 14-13 Quad 1-Quad 3
The Bad: 0-6 against Quad 1A opponents
The Outlook: The Mustangs are right on the cut-line. The problem with their resume is the fact that they don’t have any stand out wins on the road. Also, the injury to BJ Edwards. The team released a statement that he will be ready to play for the NCAA Tournament, but does that really mean anything?
Stanford
The Good: 5-6 Quad 1, 9-8 Quad 1 and Quad 2, beat Louisville, UNC, SMU, Saint Louis (n), Won at NC State
The Bad: Four Quad 4 losses
The Outlook: Stanford seemingly came out of nowhere to enter the field after winning at NC State last weekend. It was one of a few bubble teams that came away with a big win. However, the Cardinal were unable to continue their momentum and lost a heartbreaker to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament. The loss was their fourth Quad 3 loss on the season and it’s probably going to be too much to overcome.
California
The Good: 4-6 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, SMU, UCLA (n)
The Bad: 6-9 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 70’s, 2-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 329, Quad 3 loss to Pitt
The Outlook: The Golden Bears lost their first game in the ACC tournament to Florida State likely ending their chances for an at-large bid.
Virginia Tech
The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 41
The Bad: 2-10 Quad 1, 2-8 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60
The Outlook: The Hokies lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament to Wake Forest. This was something they could not afford to do. The prospects of receiving an at-large bid now are very slim.
Big East
Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (5), Villanova (9)
Invitations Printed: None
On the List…for Now: None
The Uninvited: Seton Hall
Seton Hall
The Good: Beat NC State (n), 8-7 r/n
The Bad: Only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 55, 2-6 Quad 1, 0-5 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 losses
The Outlook: The Pirates lost to St. John’s in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. An at-large bid is out of reach.
Big Ten
Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Michigan State (2), Illinois (3), Purdue (3), Nebraska (3), Wisconsin (5), UCLA (7), Ohio State (9)
Invitations Printed: Iowa (10)
On the List…for Now: None
The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out)
Indiana
The Good: Beat Purdue, Wisconsin, won at UCLA, no bad losses
The Bad: 3-11 Quad 1, 6-13 Quad 1/Quad 2
The Outlook: The Hoosiers are another bubble team that was unable to take advantage of just winning a basketball game. The loss puts Indiana on the outside of the field looking in and probably end its chances for an at-large bid. I won’t say the Hoosiers are definitely done just yet, but more likely than not they are.
Big 12
Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas (4), Texas Tech (5), BYU (6), TCU (8)
Invitations Printed: UCF (9)
On the List…for Now: None
The Uninvited: Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), Cincinnati (Next 4 Out)
Oklahoma State
The Good: No bad losses, beat BYU, Texas A&M and UCF, won at UCF
The Bad: T-Rank: 81, NET: 79, 2-11 Quad 1, 9-14 Quad 1 and Quad 2, NCSOS: 257, 4-9 R/N
The Outlook: The Cowboys lost to TCU in the Big 12 tournament which likely ends their chances for an at-large bid.
Cincinnati
The Good: beat Iowa State, UCF, BYU, won at Kansas, T-Rank: 30
The Bad: WAB: 62, 3-11 Quad 1, 2-12 R/N, 7-13 Quad 1 and Quad 2, Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan
The Outlook: Unfortunately, Cincinnati was unable to beat UCF which in all likelihood ends its chances for an at-large bid. The Bearcats would have needed to beat Houston in the next round as well. Despite a strong finish to the season, their metrics just are not in a good place.
SEC
Invitations Sent: Florida (1), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (4), Arkansas (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8)
Invitations Printed: Texas A&M (10), Missouri (11)
On the List…for Now: Texas (Last 4 In)
The Uninvited: Oklahoma (First 4 Out), Auburn (First 4 Out)
Missouri
The Good: SOR: 37, BPI: 42, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses
The Bad: NET: 60, 5-9 R/N
The Outlook: Missouri lost to Kentucky in its first game of the SEC tournament, but should still see its name called on Selection Sunday. The possibility does exist of the Tigers getting sent to Dayton due to having poor predictive metrics.
Texas
The Good: SOR: 43, Ken Pom: 33, 7-9 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama, at Missouri and at Texas A&M
The Bad: KPI: 60, 7-13 Quad 1/Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Mississippi State
The Outlook: Texas finished the season losing four of its last five games after losing to Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. The Longhorns were so close to being a lock two weeks ago, but now their chances of receiving an at-large bid are up in the air. Likely in for now, but if we see a ton of bid-stealers, you never know. If Texas is fortunate enough to get in, there’s a really good chance it ends up in Dayton.
Auburn
The Good: Won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky
The Bad: 17-16 overall, 4-13 Quad 1, 7-15 Quad 1-Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss
The Outlook: Auburn is going up against history. It would be the first team ever to receive an at-large bid while having 16 losses. The Tigers are still alive, but probably on the wrong side of the bubble. They are going to need some help to find their way into the field.
Oklahoma
The Good: won at Vanderbilt, at Texas, beat Georgia, Auburn, Missouri, no bad losses
The Bad: KPI: 68, 4-10 Quad 1, 10-15 Quad 1 and Quad 2
The Outlook: Oklahoma missed out on a huge opportunity against Arkansas in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. I won’t totally rule out the Sooners just yet, but their poor quadrant numbers will be a key reason why they may get left out of the field. They have a very similar resume to Texas, but two fewer Quad 1 wins and not as many key road wins. Other than that, these two teams have almost identical resumes.
Other Candidates
Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary’s (8)
Invitations Printed: Utah State (8), Saint Louis (9), Santa Clara (10), Miami OH (Last 4 In)
On the List…for Now: VCU (Last 4 In)
The Uninvited: New Mexico (First 4 Out), San Diego State (Next 4 Out)
Miami (OH)
The Good: 28-1 against D-I teams, SOR: 21, WAB: 32, 2-0 Quad 2, 15-1 r/n
The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 86, zero Quad 1 games played, 26 of 28 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4
The Outlook: The RedHawks lost their first game of the season to UMass on Thursday in the MAC tournament and will now likely become an at-large team. That means there will be one fewer at-large bid available for the rest of the field. Is it possible they don’t receive an at-large bid? Sure. But that would go down as one of the biggest embarrassments in selection committee history. Put Miami (OH) in the field. Put them in Dayton. Let’s see what it can do.
Santa Clara
The Good: WAB: 36, SOR: 39, T-Rank: 28, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s twice
The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 2-5 Quad 1, BPI: 49
The Outlook: The Broncos did what they needed to do and reached the championship game of the WCC Tournament. This should be enough for an at-large bid. I won’t call them a lock just yet, due to the possibilities of a bevvy of bid-stealers.
VCU
The Good: KPI: 31, 3-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n), South Florida (n)
The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 56
The Outlook: VCU advanced to the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament after defeating Duquesne on Friday. The bubble isn’t particularly strong, so if the Rams can reach the A-10 championship, an at-large bid will certainly be within reach. While I do have VCU in the field if the season ended today, it needs to be weary of the possibility of bid-stealers.
New Mexico
The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, San Diego State, 8-7 Quad 1/Quad 2
The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Colorado State and at New Mexico State, BPI: 56
The Outlook: New Mexico is likely going to need to reach the Mountain West Tournament finals in order to be in play for an at-large bid. One positive is that its wins against VCU on the road and against Santa Clara are now two wins against teams currently in the field.
San Diego State
The Good: Beat New Mexico and Utah State, 5-2 Quad 2
The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Troy
The Outlook: The Aztecs are probably going to need to win the MWC Tourney in order to get into the NCAA Tournament.
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