Bracketology 2026: Men’s Tournament Bubble Teams — Beware of the Bid-Stealer(s)!

One thing I wanted to touch on was how the selection committee determines which teams end up playing in the First Four in Dayton. There are two significant factors that a bubble team could have on their resume that sends them to Dayton. The first one is when a team has poor predictive metrics. These are the metrics specifically used to seed teams that have been included in the field. The teams that stand out right now with worse predictive metrics than the rest of the field are: Miami (OH), Missouri, UCF, Santa Clara and VCU.

The other item that could send a team to Dayton is when it has something significantly negative that stands out on its resume. It could be a really bad record away from home, a poor record against one of the quadrants, multiple bad losses or even just having no wins against at-large teams. The teams that fit this criteria are VCU (no wins over AL teams), Texas (10-14 Quad 1- Quad 3), SMU (9-13 Quad 1 and Quad 2), Auburn (16 losses), Miami OH (no Quad 1 games played), Oklahoma (10-14 Quad 1 and Quad 2) and Indiana (7-14 Quad 1 and Quad 2). We may not know the exact number of at-large bids until Sunday afternoon, so it’s going to be a sweat-filled couple of days for many of the bubble teams mentioned above.

Here are the bubble games that matter today:

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma (First 4 Out)

-Oklahoma has now won six games in a row and eight of its last 10 after defeating Texas A&M in the second round of the SEC tournament. The Sooners will face Arkansas in the quarterfinals in what will be a massive game for their chances to make the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma has wins at Vanderbilt, at Texas and at home against Georgia, Auburn and Missouri. The fact that it also has no bad losses definitely helps as well.

Saint Louis vs. George Washington

Every bubble team needs to be rooting for Saint Louis in this one. If the Billikens fail to win, that means the Atlantic-10 will end up being a multi-bid league and there will be one fewer at-large bid available.

VCU (Last 4 In) vs. Duquesne

VCU cannot afford a loss to Duquesne if it wants to stay in the hunt for an at-large bid. A win certainly doesn’t secure a bid for the Rams, but a loss could in effect, knock them out. Every bubble team will be rooting against VCU on Friday night.

Utah State vs. Nevada

While Utah State has all but wrapped up an at-large bid, a loss to Nevada would mean that the Mountain West will be a multi-bid league. It also means there would be another bid-stealer. Huge game for everyone on the bubble to watch. All these bubble teams should be rooting for the Aggies to come out victorious.

New Mexico (First 4 Out) vs. San Diego State

This is a must-win game for the Lobos. A win gives them a chance for an at-large bid, while a loss ends their chances. San Diego State is going to need to win the Mountain West tournament in order to get into the NCAA Tournament.

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“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do. 

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

• Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
• Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

• A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
• A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
• An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

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ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (6), Louisville (6), Miami (7), Clemson (7)

Invitations Printed: NC State (11)

On the List…for Now: SMU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Stanford (Next 4 Out), California (Next 4 Out), Virginia Tech (Next 4 Out)

SMU

The Good: No bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 12-11 Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 1-6 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: The Mustangs took care of business against Syracuse in the first round of the ACC Tournament yesterday. That’s a big win to stop the funk they’ve been in the last week or so. The big question is will BJ Edwards return for SMU? That could absolutely factor in to the selection committee’s decision. The Mustangs have not played well without him. They missed out on another opportunity against Louisville and will now have to sweat it out all the way through Selection Sunday. This team is in right now, but the possibility of bid-stealers still exists.

Stanford

The Good: 5-6 Quad 1, 9-8 Quad 1 and Quad 2, beat Louisville, UNC, SMU, Saint Louis (n), Won at NC State

The Bad: Four Quad 4 losses

The Outlook: Stanford seemingly came out of nowhere to enter the field after winning at NC State last weekend. It was one of a few bubble teams that came away with a big win. However, the Cardinal were unable to continue their momentum and lost a heartbreaker to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament. The loss was their fourth Quad 3 loss on the season and it’s probably going to be too much to overcome.

California

The Good: 4-6 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, SMU, UCLA (n)

The Bad: 6-9 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 70’s, 2-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 329, Quad 3 loss to Pitt

The Outlook: The Golden Bears lost their first game in the ACC tournament to Florida State likely ending their chances for an at-large bid.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 41

The Bad: 2-9 Quad 1, 2-7 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60

The Outlook: The Hokies lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament to Wake Forest. This was something they could not afford to do. The prospects of receiving an at-large bid now are very slim.

Big East

Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (5), Villanova (8)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall

Seton Hall

The Good: Beat NC State (n), 8-6 r/n

The Bad: Only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 55, 2-5 Quad 1, 0-4 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 losses

The Outlook: The Pirates lost to St. John’s on Friday night which, in effect, ends their chances to receive an at-large bid. Seton Hall is going to need to win the Big East tournament in order to be part of the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Michigan State (2), Purdue (3), Nebraska (3), Wisconsin (6), UCLA (8), Iowa (9)

Invitations Printed: Ohio State (10)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out)

Indiana

The Good: Beat Purdue, Wisconsin, won at UCLA, no bad losses

The Bad: 3-11 Quad 1, 6-13 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers are another bubble team that was unable to take advantage of just winning a basketball game. The loss puts Indiana on the outside of the field looking in and probably end its chances for an at-large bid. I won’t say the Hoosiers are definitely done just yet, but more likely than not they are.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (3), Kansas (4), Texas Tech (5), BYU (6), TCU (9)

Invitations Printed: UCF (10)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), Cincinnati (Next 4 Out)

Oklahoma State

The Good: No bad losses, beat BYU, Texas A&M and UCF, won at UCF

The Bad: T-Rank: 81, NET: 79, 2-11 Quad 1, 9-14 Quad 1 and Quad 2, NCSOS: 257, 4-9 R/N

The Outlook: The Cowboys lost to TCU which likely ends their chances for an at-large bid.

Cincinnati

The Good: beat Iowa State, UCF, BYU, won at Kansas, T-Rank: 30

The Bad: WAB: 62, 3-11 Quad 1, 2-12 R/N, 7-13 Quad 1 and Quad 2, Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan

The Outlook: Unfortunately, Cincinnati was unable to beat UCF which in all likelihood ends its chances for an at-large bid. The Bearcats would have needed to beat Houston in the next round as well. Despite a strong finish to the season, their metrics just are not in a good place.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (1), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (5), Arkansas (5), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8)

Invitations Printed: Texas A&M (10), Missouri (10)

On the List…for Now: Texas (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Auburn (First 4 Out), Oklahoma (First 4 Out)

Missouri 

The Good: SOR: 37, BPI: 42, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: NET: 60, 5-9 R/N

The Outlook: I think Missouri will be an at-large bid regardless of how it performs in the SEC Tournament, but I would avoid losing to LSU if the Tigers end up beating Kentucky.

Texas

The Good: SOR: 43, Ken Pom: 33, 7-9 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama, at Missouri and at Texas A&M

The Bad: KPI: 60, 7-13 Quad 1/Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Mississippi State

The Outlook: Texas finished the season losing four of its last five games after losing to Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. The Longhorns were so close to being a lock two weeks ago, but now their chances of receiving an at-large bid are up in the air. Likely in for now, but if we see a ton of bid-stealers, you never know. Good chance Texas ends up in Dayton.

Auburn

The Good: Won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky

The Bad: 17-16 overall, 4-13 Quad 1, 7-15 Quad 1-Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss

The Outlook: Auburn is going up against history. It would be the first team ever to receive an at-large bid while having 16 losses. The Tigers are still alive, but probably on the wrong side of the bubble. They are going to need some help to find their way into the field.

Oklahoma

The Good: won at Vanderbilt, at Texas, beat Georgia, Auburn, Missouri, no bad losses

The Bad: KPI: 70, 3-9 Quad 1, 9-14 Quad 1 and Quad 2

The Outlook: Oklahoma is the only bubble team that seems interested in winning. The Sooners face Arkansas on Friday in what could very well be a game that gets them into the field.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary’s (7)

Invitations Printed: Utah State (8), Saint Louis (9), Santa Clara (10), Miami OH (Last 4 In)

On the List…for Now: VCU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: New Mexico (First 4 Out), San Diego State

Miami (OH)

The Good: 28-1 against D-I teams, SOR: 21, WAB: 32, 2-0 Quad 2, 15-1 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 86, zero Quad 1 games played, 26 of 28 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: The RedHawks lost their first game of the season to UMass on Thursday in the MAC tournament and will now likely become an at-large team. That means there will be one fewer at-large bid available for the rest of the field. Is it possible they don’t receive an at-large bid? Sure. But that would go down as one of the biggest embarrassments in selection committee history. Put Miami (OH) in the field. Put them in Dayton. Let’s see what it can do.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 36, SOR: 39, T-Rank: 28, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s twice

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 2-5 Quad 1, BPI: 49

The Outlook: The Broncos did what they needed to do and reached the championship game of the WCC Tournament. This should be enough for an at-large bid. I won’t call them a lock just yet, due to the possibilities of a bevvy of bid-stealers.

VCU 

The Good: KPI: 31, 3-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n), South Florida (n)

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 56

The Outlook: VCU came away with a big win on the road at Dayton on Friday to improve its case for an at-large bid. The bubble isn’t particularly strong, so if the Rams can make a run to the A-10 championship, an at-large bid will certainly be within reach. While I do have VCU in the field if the season ended today, it needs to be weary of the possibility of bid-stealers.

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, San Diego State, 8-7 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Colorado State and at New Mexico State, BPI: 56

The Outlook: New Mexico is likely going to need to reach the Mountain West Tournament finals in order to be in play for an at-large bid. One positive is that its wins against VCU on the road and against Santa Clara are now two wins against teams currently in the field.

San Diego State

The Good: Beat New Mexico and Utah State, 5-2 Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs are probably going to need to win the MWC Tourney in order to get into the NCAA Tournament.

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