Daily Best Bets for Friday, March 7: Purdue and Illinois face-off, New Mexico at The Pit and a Arch Madness Matinee

18 Purdue at Illinois, 8 p.m., Fox

Line: Illinois -4.5, Over/Under: 159.5

The Pick: $15 on Under 159.5 (-110)

The Purdue Boilermakers play a jump shooting game that ranks 352nd in the country at frequency attacking the rim, per ShotQuality metrics. They are also efficient defenders of opponents’ jump shots, rating third at defending three-point attempts and second at defending midrange shots in the Big Ten, though their defensive weakness has been their inability to defend the rim where they rate last in the conference. The Boilermakers head to Champaign to face Illinois, who is third in the nation at keeping opponents off the three-point line, allowing just a 30.2 percent rate. Illinois struggles to force turnovers but is a strong rebounding team, which could correlate to longer possessions and fewer chances for scoring. It’s also important to note that Illinois is expected to be the sixth best halfcourt defense in the nation (SQ), and with Purdue struggling to get into transition, Illinois should be able to slow what its conference foe is attempting to do. All in all, this total is probably a few points too high, making my best bet for this Big Ten clash the Under.

#8 Southern Illinois vs. #1 Drake, 1 p.m., ESPN+

Line: Drake -9, Over/Under: 129.5

The Pick: $15 on SIU +8.5 (-102)

The Salukis just won an exciting, dramatic game to open Missouri Valley Conference Tournament play with a one-point victory over Indiana State, who had just beaten them by 18 points four days earlier. Now Southern Illinois heads into a tougher matchup with top-seeded Drake but is being given an eight-and-a-half point line that is likely a bit too big. The Salukis are one of the best teams in transition in the conference and are able to effectively add to their total through a strong ability to rebound and force opponents into weaker shot selection. Drake is the team to beat in the Valley, but it is not infallible — the Bulldogs are 364th out of 364 teams in the country in tempo, so the easy SIU buckets in transition could be tough to equalize on the offensive end. Drake turns the ball over 18 percent of the time on offense, which is a recipe for disaster against an SIU team that has shown it will finish at the rim effectively. Drake also struggles to defend the three-point shot, which is another route that could lead to a competitive game. Take the points here at eight-and-a-half with SIU and expecting this to stay within three possessions.

UNLV at New Mexico, 10 p.m., CBSSN

Line: New Mexico -11.5 , Over/Under: 146.5

The Pick: $10 on UNLV +11.5 (-115)

There are fewer tougher places to play as a visiting team than The Pit. Tonight, however, we are betting on the visiting team to cover the number because New Mexico is one of the luckiest teams in the country and this spread is likely inflated as a result. The Lobos are expected to be allowing opponents to shoot four percent better at the rim and are expected to be shooting two percent worse from three-point range, per ShotQuality. This, combined with other factors, has led to a net differential between their actual and expected record of five wins. That is usually indicative of talented players and good coaching, but there is also most certainly a luck factor involved as well. New Mexico rates poorly in shot-making offensively and allows opponents to take good shots on defense, while UNLV’s potency at the rim and ability to shoot off the dribble will challenge the Lobos, even in the comfort of their home gym. With the season essentially wrapped up and the Lobos crowned the conference winners, there’s less reason to think they will push hard to finish this off, potentially allowing UNLV to tighten the score in the last minutes. I project this will stay within double digits.