Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s college basketball games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 29-24-1 and +$56 on the season. Today, we’re betting on the Big Ten and the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Tournament, otherwise known as “Arch Madness” for its St. Louis location.
Let’s get to it.
WHAT’S YOUR BEST BET TONIGHT?
TELL US BELOW.
8 Michigan State at Iowa, 8 p.m., Fox Sports 1
Line: Michigan State -6.5, Over/Under: 151.5
The Pick: $15 on Michigan St. -6.5 (-110)
Michigan State faces off against Iowa on the road in a matchup where the six-and-a-half point spread likely won’t be enough to keep the Spartans from covering. Coach Tom Izzo’s model of consistency in March routinely has his players performing well as the regular season concludes, and this year appears to be no different. Judging by the Spartans’ play quality over their last five games, including wins over Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue (all verified by ShotQuality expected scores), there’s ample evidence this team is as good as they look. The Spartans excel at the free throw line, rebound effectively, pass well, and attack the rim with efficiency, while defensively limiting opponents’ rim attempts and forcing Big Ten foes into the second-fewest transition possessions. Their rim dominance will likely overwhelm an Iowa team that, despite efficient scoring ability, has been utterly incapable of defending the half court against Big Ten opponents, surrendering a troubling 63% field goal rate at the rim in conference play. Michigan State should continue showcasing their dominance even on the road as they solidify their near certain position on the two-seed line come Selection Sunday.
#9 Indiana State vs. #8 Southern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Line: SIU -1 , Over/Under: 156.5
The Pick: $15 on Indiana St. ML (-105)
The Missouri Valley Conference tournament tips off with a battle between Southern Illinois and Indiana State, a Sycamores team that takes the seventh-most three-point shots nationally while operating at the 20th-fastest tempo. In his first year as Indiana State’s head coach, Matthew Graves ironically takes the Sycamores from Terre Haute to St. Louis, where former coach Josh Schertz (who was left at the altar for his chance to dance last season) now resides. The Sycamores’ shooting talent and tempo creates tough-to-defend spacing, although their three-point defense and turnover rate remain concerning weaknesses. Indiana State will face a Southern Illinois squad with a formidable transition attack and rim efficiency, but one that struggles defending the half court and ranks an abysmal 363rd per ShotQuality metrics in defending opponent three point attempts. These teams just played four days ago with Indiana State dominating at home by nearly 20 points in what the shot profiles projected to be a close contest. The Salukis have been lucky from three-point range but unlucky finishing at the rim this season and they take quality shots with poor shot makers rather than the other way around. Though the line favors Southern Illinois slightly for this day game, Indiana State should have the edge, as SIU has underperformed lately, dropping five of their last six games while the data favor the team that, despite a worse overall season record, appears to be finding form at the right moment.
#5 Illinois State vs. #12 Missouri State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+
Line: Illinois St -5.5 , Over/Under: 132.5
The Pick: $10 on SGP: ISU ML // Mo. St. TT U64.5 (+101*)
Illinois State enters as the clearly superior team in this matchup, with shot quality metrics highlighting their edge in three point shooting—a strength they frequently leverage—while pinpointing Missouri State’s troubling tendency to defend catch-and-shoot attempts poorly while also allowing many of them. On the other side, Missouri State’s half court offense lacks exceptional qualities, and while they finish effectively at the rim when they get there, they simply don’t generate enough such opportunities to make their desired impact, further hampered by their shooting struggles. The Bears’ shot selection pales in comparison to Illinois State’s, who complement their superior shot profile with high-level shot makers, creating a scenario where Illinois State should secure the victory. While covering the spread raises some concerns, historical evidence and analytical reasoning suggest that if Illinois State wins, Missouri State should struggle to reach their team total, making this same-game parlay requiring an Illinois State win and Missouri State staying under 64.5 points a compelling option for a solid return.
*Edit: I made a mistake placing my own parlay and clicked the other Illinois team instead of the correlated one. I’ve changed my mistake but it was wildly off, I apologize. The play still stands and will be tracked properly.
