The final week of February is here, and there’s not much time left for teams to separate from the pack or prove that they are worth the risk when it comes to placing futures. 

Today, as always with this column, I have $50 to play with so I can vary my bets by conviction. The minimum bet is $5.

Keep checking back to Hoops HQ for continued betting content as The Big Dance approaches! 

Arizona

The Wildcats have lost two of their last three games, but prior to those (a reasonable loss to Houston, and a road loss to red-hot Kansas State), Arizona had only taken one loss since the middle of December, and maybe quietly so. Their pricing at +750 to make the Final Four is in a similar range as teams like Wisconsin, Missouri, and Texas A&M, all of whom have only just recently put together a hot run or shown ample signs of weakness. Arizona, meanwhile, has been consistently winning in one of the toughest conferences in the country and their blemish loss to Kansas State came while Jerome Tang’s squad was playing as though they were the best team in the nation. 

Coach Tommy Lloyd has created a team that features formidable passing, rebounding, rim defense and efficient shooting. They move quickly and if they tighten down their three point defense, they will only see their winning margins grow— it’s truly their only weak point. Their talent runs deep with Caleb Love and Trey Townsend, the latter of whom helped beat Kentucky as a part of Oakland’s Cinderella win last season.

Arizona’s defense might be more impressive than what they’re doing scoring the basketball right now. Only a few teams look better clamping opponents down than the Wildcats and defense translates. It might be a bold take given the struggles this program has faced in the recent past surviving in March, but I think this should be priced a bit closer to +500, making it a great value with a real chance to get home to San Antonio. 

The Bet: Arizona Final Four +750 for $25 at DraftKings

St. Mary’s

It can be tough to gauge how a team from the WCC is going to translate into March play, but what the Gaels are doing deserves attention. They are a fortress on defense that also has the shot making and passing prowess to win games against opponents that have been forced to play through molasses. 

Per ShotQuality, St. Mary’s moves at the 356th fastest pace and allows the 13th fewest three point attempts when defending (32.3 percent attempt rate). They make it nearly impossible for opposing teams to go on runs while possessing the strength to rebound on both sides of the ball. Their sharp passing has them in the top 20 lowest turnover rates nationally. 

For the teams that the Gaels are bundled with by current price, they are the best defensively and also performing the best in the last few weeks. A season defining game with Gonzaga looms, but one game does not make or break their case when it comes to March. They are worth the investment.

The Bet: St. Mary’s Final Four 21-1 at FanDuel for $15.

Ole Miss

The Rebels lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate on offense (ShotQuality) and, defensively, force the 25th most turnovers, generating an elite number of extra possessions while playing against some of the toughest competition in Division I. They use sharp passing skills to generate high-level spacing and open looks from deep that enable an efficient shooting attack. 

Their issues are that they allow opponents to take too many attempts from deep and do not gain extra possessions on the offensive boards, but their turnover prowess replicates that impact well enough.​​ Three of their last four losses, to Mississippi State, Auburn and Texas A&M, were all expected to be wins per ShotQuality’s expected game scores. 

If they have the potential to win those games based on the process of their shots taken and allowed, on top of the strong performance in the SEC that we have seen, this 28-1 price to make it to San Antonio might not take long to be viewed as a smart bet come tournament time.

The Pick: Ole Miss Final Four 28-1 at DraftKings for $10