Welcome back to Best Bets, where I give you my top plays in college basketball over the next couple of days. Each time I write this column, I will have a $100 budget to bet however I like.
We are 12-8 and +$14 so far after the first three weeks with an exciting group of marquee contests to break down. Betting lines are all assumed from KenPom projections.
Let’s get started.
THE MAIN EVENT
No. 4 Alabama at No. 15 Missouri, Wednesday, 9 p.m., SEC Network
Line: Missouri -1, Over/Under: 171.5
Missouri
Few teams have surged up the ranks like Missouri. Starting the calendar year outside KenPom’s top 50, the Tigers now sit 15th nationally in adjusted efficiency, fueled by an 8-3 SEC run with road wins over Florida, Mississippi State and Georgia. Their identity? Relentless transition play, disruptive defense (SEC-leading steal rate), and efficient offense (37.6 percent from three). Mizzou gets to the free throw line frequently and forces opponents into mid-range purgatory (top-10 mid-range defense nationally). Weaknesses? Three-point defense and occasional overreliance on rim attempts (59th-most pick-and-roll usage). But advanced metrics suggest the strong play is supported by good process.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide remain college basketball’s most explosive offense: first in tempo, 46.5 percent of shots from deep and elite spacing that drives good looks. They crash the glass, draw fouls and suffocate opponents’ three-point attempts. But Alabama does have flaws: It doesn’t force turnovers (328th nationally), struggles to contain transition attacks and has the signs of defensive overperformance (ShotQuality expects a 34 percent opponent three-point rate, up from 30.6 they are currently allowing). If the Tide’s perimeter defense regresses, Missouri’s high-octane transition game could thrive.
The Matchup
A firefight, indeed. Missouri’s athletic offense versus Alabama’s flame-throwing tempo is the headline. The Tigers’ ability to force steals and push pace aligns perfectly with Alabama’s tendency to play fast and loose. Mizzou’s defense will try to funnel the Tide into contested jumpers, but Alabama’s three-point volume could negate that. The X-factor? Three-point variance (as with most Alabama games). If Missouri’s shooters capitalize on Alabama’s potentially overrated perimeter defense, the Tigers will stay in the game, maybe even control it. Meanwhile, Alabama must stay vigilant on the boards and avoid turnovers to keep Mizzou’s transition in check, especially on the Tigers’ home floor.
The pick: $30 on Missouri -1.5 (-110).
Other Best Bets
No. 14 Michigan State at No. 12 Michigan, Friday, 8 p.m., FOX
Line: Michigan -2, Over/Under: 150
The Spartans’ identity is defense. They own the Big Ten’s second-best halfcourt unit, stifle isolations (first in defending iso attempts) and swatting shots (14.6 percent block rate, top-20 nationally). Opponents shoot just 28 percent from deep against them in conference play, a testament to disciplined closeouts. Offensively, they attack the rim frequently (41 percent of shots) and dominate the offensive glass but suffer from cold three-point shooting (28 percent in Big Ten play). Regression looms defensively, but if their shooting warms up, they’re a nightmare.
The Wolverines’ twin-tower duo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin creates matchup chaos, but their turnover woes (bottom-50 nationally) undermine their elite half-court defense (third in Big Ten). ShotQuality expects a 3-4 point defensive regression, yet Michigan’s ability to “overperform” metrics—locking down shooters and contesting late-clock looks—keeps them in title conversations.
A rock fight with bursts of transition. Michigan State’s defense will force Michigan into mid-range jumpers, which they’re happy to take, while the Wolverines’ size could wear down the Spartans inside. Turnovers will be critical: Michigan’s giveaway tendencies fuel MSU’s transition game, but if it protects the ball, its half-court offense (third in efficiency) could dominate. Both defenses are elite but due for regression—expect offensive breakthroughs in this battle for Michigan basketball bragging rights.
The Pick: $35 on Over 150
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 10 Illinois (Sentinel One Classic), Saturday, 8 p.m., FOX
Line: Duke -8, Over/Under: 154
A rare nonconference matchup in the middle of February has all the makings of a late-March preview. The Blue Devils are a juggernaut, they rank top-15 in defensive rebounding, rim protection and three-point efficiency. Cooper Flagg’s rim dominance (ninth-fewest opponent rim attempts allowed) forces teams into tough mid-range looks (21 percent of shots against), where Duke still defends well. Offensively, they space the floor (fourth-best nationally), rarely turn it over and shoot 77 percent from the free throw line. Flagg’s two-way impact makes them a title favorite, but jump-shooting teams can occasionally poke holes.
The Illini counter with their own elite defense (second in half-court efficiency) and physicality. They limit threes (30 percent opponent three-point attempt rate) and crash the glass. Offensively, they’re reliant on threes but expected to see solid positive regression from behind the three-point line. The Illini must avoid settling for threes and test Flagg at the rim—easier said than done.
These teams have both been expected to see a handful of their games be higher scoring than what’s actually happening due to defensive prowess. With this game not carrying conference weight and both teams comfortably in the Field of 68, this game has more value to go over the expected opener than under.
The Pick: $35 on Over 154
