Welcome back to Best Bets, where I give you my top plays in college basketball over the next couple of days. Each time I write this column, I will have a $100 budget to bet however I like.
Here is my third installment for Hoops HQ. We are 10-6 and +$48 so far after the first two weeks with another great set of games to break down. Betting lines are all assumed from KenPom projections.
Let’s get started.
THE MAIN EVENT
No. 9 St Johns (-3) at Villanova, Wednesday, 6 p.m., FS1
Line: SJU -3, Over/Under 139
St. John’s
Fresh off the biggest week in the last 25 years, not to mention the biggest win of their season over UConn in Storrs, the Red Storm are undoubtedly the hottest power five school in the nation. Only Akron holds a win streak longer than the 10 games in a row that Rick Pitino and the nation’s second best defense are currently on. They are a brutal force that turns even the most poised offenses into a sloppy looking free-for-all, with the potential to finish off their top-20 turnover rate with brilliant finishers at all five positions.
St. John’s is a force on the boards, has defensive length at wing in North Texas transfer Aaron Scott, floater mastery from all-around star Kadary Richmond, two-way impact from Big East Player of the Week RJ Luis Jr, and a defensive anchor who can guard one-to-five in potential All Big East center Zuby Ejiofor. They do everything … except shoot jumpshots. Defensively, they’ve been giving opposing three point shooters too much space, per ShotQuality.
If St. John’s either gets hot from deep or can figure out how to stop allowing the 346th best expected defense against their opponents’ three point shots, it has a chance to beat any team it faces and make a run to San Antonio come April.
Villanova
There were some alarm bells ringing amongst the Wildcat faithful early in the season, with losses like Columbia at home and Virginia on a neutral floor creating a reasonable cause for concern. Since then, however, Kyle Neptune and this Villanova team deserve credit, because they have largely righted the ship: They’ve suffered just two home losses in conference play, each by less than a full possession, and notched key wins against Xavier, Butler, UConn and Providence to keep from falling too far into oblivion.
That said, if the season were to end today, they would not be an NCAA Tournament team, but their top-20 offense, led by Eric Dixon, along with their tortoise-like tempo, can create problems for any team.
Schematically, the Wildcats keep opponents from the rim and allow the 12th fewest looks from within a few feet of the hoop. That should create a good defensive anchor upon which to build, but the issue is that they can’t seem to defend the midrange in exchange. Teams are shooting 43 percent (44 percent in conference) against Villanova on middies, which means that even late in the shot clock, teams are hitting seemingly tough buckets time and time again.
The Wildcats’ offensive capabilities with Eric Dixon down low and elite shooting surrounding him means that you cannot give Villanova extra chances and must capitalize when you can. They’re not the dilapidated unit from November and, if anything, they’re a threat to any team in the Big East on any night, especially at home.
The Matchup
The unmovable object against the unstoppable force. That’s how I’d title every possession when Villanova has the ball. It will be one of the best challenges for the St. John’s defensive unit that they have seen all season. Eric Dixon is probably 30 pounds heavier than Zuby Ejiofor and likely will be able to score at will while Pitino ensures his big man doesn’t foul out early. But that means the name of the game will be ball denial. There will be possessions where, if successful, Dixon won’t get a touch within 15 feet of the hoop, because if he does it will probably convert to points. His gravity and ability will either lead to open threes or easy finishes in the paint, the latter of which might be the lesser evil.
The counter tactic to Dixon’s dominance will come on the other side of the floor, in the battle of the two weaker units. The Johnnies’ struggling offense gets to go against a defense that is allowing nearly 34 percent shooting from deep in Big East play! That could be the perfect remedy for the Red Storm’s shooting woes, but more importantly, they need to target Dixon and get him in foul trouble. The Wildcats are 2-5 in games where Dixon has three or more fouls this season and both wins were at home against Seton and Xavier. Keep one of the best players in the country off the floor and you win the game. Simple.
The pick: $50 on St. John’s (-3). The anticipated -3 line from KenPom’s projections likely will be correct. There have been slight adjustments for home teams but the Red Storm’s popularity might balance that out. I do not expect this to be easy for either side, but from a very basic level the physical presence of St. John’s on the glass, at the rim and on the ball should suffocate the Villanova’s offense and lead to transition baskets. The X-factor of Dixon’s fouls should be one that the coaching staff at St. John’s picks up on. If they force the issue, the game could end quickly. Lay it with the best team in the Big East to keep rolling as they hunt for a regionally-protected March Madness seed.
Other Best Bets
No. 25 Maryland at Nebraska, Thursday, 8:30pm., Big Ten Network
This might be the nightmare matchup for Nebraska come Thursday night. The Cornhuskers are allowing one of the highest shooting percentages from behind the arc in the Big Ten. In conference play, 47 of every 100 shots have been from deep. That is not good, especially when considering that Maryland has shooters in Ja’Kobie Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel who can, and will, make Nebraska pay for their poor quality defense on catch-and-shoot threes.
Nebraska’s chances will depend on a strong rim attack and, hopefully, frequent trips to the free throw line. The Cornhuskers will need to convert against Maryland’s defensive rebounding rates, which have led to the Terps keeping good offenses like Illinois and Wisconsin below 75 points in the last couple of weeks.
This is one of the best teams I’ve seen behind Coach Willard. This won’t go down like the 2023 OT road melt. Maryland will get it done.
The pick: $15 on Maryland Moneyline at -110
UCLA at Indiana, Friday, 8:00pm., FOX
Betting on a team like Indiana, which is in the public doghouse due to a lackluster run and the decision of Coach Mike Woodson to retire at the end of the season, is an intriguing challenge. Folks will line up to bet against a side they think is in the dumps. If you held a Michigan -3.5 ticket on Saturday afternoon, you know it can turn out to be a brutal proposition.
The real thing to look at is that the Hoosiers are consistently underperforming at the rim on both sides of the ball in conference play. UCLA is going to prey on that.
I do not feel l need to go much further than rim dominance combined with turnover prowess on both sides of the court for the Bruins. Mick Cronin has his team in a spot to go into Assembly Hall and make a statement. I’ll take UCLA against the spread at almost any number, I think they win by at least two full possessions.
The pick: $20 on UCLA -3
No. 2 Alabama at No 1. Auburn, Saturday, 4:00pm., ESPN
This will likely go down as the game of the year in college basketball’s regular season. It is the first contest of the season to surpass an 89.0 on KenPom’s Thrill Score, achieving a whopping 91.7! Only when Florida visits Alabama will we get another game this good.
Auburn is impeccable on the ball and creates elite spacing around 6-foot-10 senior forward Johni Broome, who then finishes and rebounds better than every single other player in the country, especially on the offensive side. However, Alabama has the pure firepower to match the Tigers’ efficiency at the rim by firing from long range, at volume, with a blitz-like tempo.
My opinion on how to tackle a game with a championship air to it will always remain steadfast; play the Under. ShotQuality’s metrics indicate that these two teams have consistently created lower than expected point per shot averages this season. That trend should only continue in the biggest game of the year.
The pick: $15 on Under 175.5
