The three-point shot has long been called the “great equalizer,” but a more appropriate title would be the “great variable.” Yes, when you’re down 15 points with just five minutes left on the clock, taking three-point shots is the fastest way to get back into the game. However, there’s a tradeoff. The national average three-point conversion rate is 33.3 percent, which means that two thirds of the time a team is most likely going to miss the shot and give its opponent a very good chance to drain precious final seconds off the clock — or worse, extend its lead.

With over three months of the college basketball season in the books, we can now use expected value data to compare how teams are shooting to the quality of their shots. To do this type of analysis, we will use information from ShotQuality (a.k.a. SQ), which uses computer vision to analyze video feeds, track player movement, calculate spacing close out speeds and then calculate the probability of those shots being made.

ShotQuality is highly accurate, just 18 of 364 teams are expected to differ from their actual three-point shooting rate by more than three percent. Relying on this unique, location based data to lead the way, we can identify teams whose three-point percentages should rise over the next several weeks, and which ones should fall.

Note: All betting lines are implied based on KenPom projections. Actual betting lines may vary and are subject to change. 


FIVE EXPECTED RISERS:

Louisville

The Cardinals have established themselves as the clear second-best team in the ACC, but Terrence Edwards is 34 of 120 from deep and Noah Waterman is 22 of 86. That is a combined 54 of 206 (26.2 percent) from a duo that shot 102 for 282, combined (36.2 percent) last season. It’s not a stretch to think that these players should be expected to shoot at rates closer to 35 percent than 25 percent moving forward. That means there’s real reason to believe Pat Kelsey, Chucky Hepburn and company are just getting started. 

Next Games: Wednesday at Boston College. Saturday vs Miami.

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet on Louisville -13 against BC, skip Miami.

Michigan State

Coach Tom Izzo and his Spartans are also just getting started, per the SQ data. Sparty is officially back to playing classic Izzo-branded basketball; a top-15 transition attack rate that pummels the rim and is fueled by good rebounding, passing and finishing ability. Now what if they were hitting their threes at a better rate, too? They might very well have an extra win or two on their record. The ShotQuality data says that Michigan State has effectively seen its bad luck on threes buoyed by its good fortune at the free throw line, where the Spartans are shooting 80 percent on the season. They also take the third fewest threes in the conference at around 20 percent, so the impact from Michigan’s State’s expected regression on those shots is less. Nonetheless, if Michigan State’s success from the charity stripe and the rim continues, its shooting should be expected to improve and the ceiling should build higher.

Upcoming Game: Saturday vs Oregon.

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet on Michigan State -7 against Oregon.

Tennessee

Down in Knoxville, Rick Barnes has his Volunteers ranked in the top five of KenPom’s net efficiency rankings and he’s done so with a largely pedestrian shooting effort from beyond the arc. As a whole, Tennessee is shooting just 33.2 percent from deep, but ShotQuality expects them to be shooting over 37 percent on the season. Zakai Zeigler, who had to miss the most recent contest against Florida, has hit just 35 of his 126 attempts from three (27.8 percent), which is nearly five percent below his career make rate of 32.4 percent (202 for 624) across his 122 games with the team since 2022. Igor Milicic has also seen a drop from over 35 percent in his career before this year, to 28.5 percent this season. It’s easy to see how a good run from either, or both, of these star caliber players could lead to flirting with a championship. That said, the Vols are an example of where the bad luck is evening out. Opponents shooting 28 percent against them in conference play is also not likely to last. 

Upcoming Games: Wednesday vs Missouri. Saturday at Oklahoma.

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet on Tenn -4 vs OU, skip if Zeigler remains out.

Zakai Zeigler #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers drives to the basket against Roy Clarke #4
Zakai Zeigler takes on St Peters with a mean dribble move.
Getty Images

Kansas

The Jayhawks are fresh off a big win over Iowa State, where they finally started to see some positive three-point regression. They shot 9 of 18 from behind the line in Monday’s contest, which brought their yearly average to 33 percent in Big 12 play. But the ShotQuality data still thinks KU should be at 38 percent, which would make them the 16th most efficient team from three in the country, rather than 131st, where the Jayhawks rank now. Zeke Mayo is doing his job, but a combined 66 for 209 from the next five core contributors is beneath what’s expected. Kansas has been more lucky on defense than unlucky on offense, so while its three-point shooting should improve, the defense might slip enough for there not to be any noticeable net change.

Upcoming Game: Saturday at Kansas St.

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet KSU +6.

Florida

The Gators are 18-3 yet they are shooting a meager 33.3 percent from deep. That’s quite identical to how Kansas looks. The Gators are developing great shots and a high rate of open threes from good shooters, but they’re just not going down. Like the Jayhawks, though, the 10th overall rated Gators defense is expected to be allowing 100 points per 100 possessions rather than the 93.3 points they currently are allowing. If anything, Florida is likely expected to be performing worse as a whole even though its shooting is cold.

Upcoming Games: Saturday, Feb. 8th at Auburn.

Justin’s Recommendation: Fade Florida. Auburn -8.

Sam Alexis of the Florida Gators men's basketball team looks fired up against Tennessee
Florida has excelled in scoring more than expected with hot shooting.
Getty Images

FIVE EXPECTED FALLERS:

San Jose State

The Spartans’ shooting efficiency has been off the charts. Only one player on the entire team is shooting below 34 percent from deep and they are within the top 50 teams at a 37 percent make rate. SQ expects them to be at 33 percent which would make them close to the bottom 100 teams. A vast difference.

Upcoming Games: Friday at Boise St.

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet Boise -13.

Yale

The Bulldogs are currently the fourth-best three-point shooting team in the nation at 39.7 percent, but ShotQuality data expects a much more average 36 percent. The fiery run in conference play, especially, has led to big wins over Penn and Princeton that would have been expected to be losses based on SQ data. Yale hit 9 of 16 shots from deep to beat Princeton by just three points. It’s easy to see how that likely should have been a loss, if not a sizable one, as Princeton went 0 for 7 from midrange in the contest as well.

Upcoming Games: Saturday at Cornell. 

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet on Cornell +4 and trust Yale to cool off. 

SMU

The Mustangs have been shooting lights out from deep. Their top four long-range shooters by volume are a combined 137 for 339, which is 40.4 percent! Chuck Harris leads the way 48 makes on just 106 attempts, which is the 45th best percent in the nation amongst qualified players on KenPom. This hot shooting has directly led to big, unexpected wins against Boston College and N.C. State. This is not to say the Mustangs aren’t expected to be a good shooting team, but SQ projects their efficiency to rank 72nd rather than the current 13th best in the nation.

Upcoming Games: Wednesday at Virginia Tech.

Justin’s Recommendation: Bet on Virginia Tech +7, SMU should regress. 

Ohio State

The Buckeyes recently won a huge, come-from-behind game against Purdue on the road that was fueled by a 9 for 14 shooting performance from three while guarded. Ohio State develops a 42nd percentile rate of Open Threes nationally and is expected to score 1.02 points per attempt, but it’s getting 1.11 instead. Eventually that will cool off and the Buckeyes’ defense will likely dip as well. With a tough stretch of Big Ten play coming up, there’s good reason to this this could be the high point of the Buckeye’s season. 

Upcoming Games: Thursday vs Maryland, Sunday at Nebraska.

Justin’s Recommendation: Trust Maryland +2 and Nebraska +1. 

Aaron Bradshaw with the basketball against Texas A&M
Aaron Bradshaw makes a tough cut to the hoop against Texas A&M.
Getty

Pittsburgh

We just saw the Panthers’ regression come home a bit with an absolute stinker of a performance at home against Virginia, but that was mostly a defensive letdown. There’s still room for the Panthers to continue to trend downwards offensively. Their 35 percent rate is expected to be 2.5 percent lower and it has led to big wins over Virginia Tech and California. ShotQuality would tell you to evaluate the Panthers as though they were shooting regularly and had lost those games. 

Upcoming Games: Saturday at North Carolina.

Justin’s Recommendation: It won’t get better for the Panthers. Tar Heels -4 to cover.