On paper, the game between Duke and North Carolina on Saturday (6:30 pm ET on ESPN) lacks the luster of previous meetings. At 18-2 and 10-0 in the ACC, Duke is arguably the best team in the country, led by the frontrunner for national player of the year in Cooper Flagg. North Carolina, on the other hand, has been among the biggest disappointments this season, with conference losses to Louisville, Stanford, Wake Forest and Pitt. The Tar Heels (13-9, 6-4) are on bubble watch, while the Blue Devils are likely to earn a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. This is not the usual clash of titans. It is David vs. Goliath.
UNC does have the talent to compete with most teams. Hubert Davis’ roster is stacked with elite guards, including fifth-year senior RJ Davis, junior Seth Trimble, sophomore Elliot Cadeau and freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. While the Tar Heels are just 1-8 in Quad 1 games, they lost to No. 11 Kansas, No. 7 Michigan State and No. 5 Florida by a combined 12 points.
The problem is, this Duke squad is not only a juggernaut, it is a brutal matchup for UNC. The Tar Heels have been able to hang with superior opponents through sheer offensive firepower, averaging 81.7 points per game (34th in DI). But they have yet to face a defense like the one they will see Saturday. The Blue Devils are allowing just 59.5 points per game (fifth in DI) and rank third in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Beyond that, UNC lacks size and is still searching for consistency from its frontcourt, while Duke has the tallest roster in college basketball. With 7-foot-2 freshman center Khaman Maluach protecting the rim and length at every position on the floor, Jon Scheyer’s team is holding opponents to 41 percent shooting on two-point field goals, which ranks second in the nation.
Duke’s overall dominance is the major storyline of this year’s battle for Tobacco Road. Of course, that starts with Flagg, the freshman sensation projected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. The 18-year-old has somehow exceeded the hype, currently leading the Blue Devils in every major statistical category except steals. In January, he averaged 25.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, a block and a steal.
After Duke fell behind N.C. State on Tuesday, Flagg put on his cape and scored 23 points in the second half to lift his team to a 74-64 win. “I think he’s at his best when he’s having fun,” Scheyer said afterwards. “But he’s really at his best when there’s a chip [on his shoulder]. You definitely saw that. Twenty three [points] in the second half, but again, he’s passing, he’s rebounding, he’s blocking. That’s the thing to me that nobody else in the country does. You can look at stats up on a screen, but his blocks, rebounds, timely plays — to me, that’s what makes him the best.”

Containing Flagg is a massive challenge for any team, but it is even more daunting for UNC given its absence of size and struggles on defense all season (300th in points allowed per game). “There are not many people, especially in college, with his size that can not only create for himself, but so easily create for his teammates,” Hubert Davis said about Flagg on Thursday. “They just have a lot of moving parts on the offensive end that can hurt you.”
Indeed they do. Freshman wing Kon Knueppel, Duke’s second leading scorer, has shot the ball better of late, connecting on 12 of his last 25 attempts from behind the arc. Maluach is one of the premier lob threats in the country. The starting backcourt of junior Tyrese Proctor and senior Sion James controls the game and spreads the floor for Flagg. Sophomore guard Caleb Foster, freshman guard Isaiah Evans and senior forward Mason Gillis provide a spark off the bench. Duke is “complete on both ends of the floor,” as Davis put it, which is why this team is a top contender to cut down the nets in April.
But here’s the thing about rivalries: you can often throw all the numbers and analysis away. When these programs meet, the pressure is elevated, emotions run high and crazy stuff tends to happen. It was just three years ago that an unranked North Carolina team spoiled Coach K’s final home game, upsetting the fourth-ranked Blue Devils, 91-74, in front of a star-studded crowd. That win seemed to ignite the Tar Heels, who subsequently went on a run to the 2022 national title game (after besting Duke once again in the Final Four).
There have been plenty more shocking moments in the rivalry. In the semifinals of the 1984 ACC Tournament, Duke stunned No. 1 North Carolina — a team headlined by an All-American guard named Michael Jordan — with a 77-75 victory at Greensboro Coliseum. On Senior Day for Duke legend JJ Redick in 2006, a young UNC squad led by freshman forward Tyler Hansborough stole an 83-71 win, holding Redick to just 5 for 21 shooting. The Blue Devils were ranked No. 1 at the time. Overall, the Tar Heels lead the series 145-117 and have claimed seven of the last 12 matchups.
Given the history, Goliath is not taking David lightly this year. “The thing that I’ve learned is, it doesn’t matter the previous games, whether you’ve won or lost,” Scheyer said on Thursday. “It doesn’t matter what your record is, what your ranking is. I’ve been on both sides of it. They have a lot of talent. The respect level we have for them is as high as it can be… When this game happens, records are out the window. Both teams are going to be ready to go. I know that.”