Here. We. Go.
March Madness is here and it’s time to dive into that beautiful bracket. You’ll find the reigning national champs in the South (Florida), as well as the team the Gators beat in last year’s title game (Houston).
The region features a ton of big-name players, juicy storylines and possible sleepers, as well as my choice to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. Let’s dig in.
Power Watch
Florida has arguably the best frontcourt in America in 6-foot-9 junior forward Thomas Haugh, 6-foot-11 junior forward Alex Condon and 6-foot-10 junior center Rueben Chinyelu. The Gators rank third nationally in rebounding and sixth in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That formula tends to breed success in March.
Houston returned three starters from last season’s team: 6-foot-4 senior guard Milos Uzan, 6-foot-3 senior guard Emanuel Sharp and 6-foot-8 junior forward JoJo Tugler. But the Cougars’ centerpiece is 6-foot-4 freshman guard Kingston Flemings, who is averaging 16.4 points, 5.3 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals. As always, coach Kelvin Sampson’s team has been stellar defensively.
Illinois has the No. 1 offense in the country per KenPom’s efficiency metrics, headlined by 6-foot-6 freshman guard Keaton Wagler. A former four-star prospect who was lightly recruited out of Shawnee Mission (Kan.) Northwest, Wagler has been one of college basketball’s best stories this year.
Nebraska is seeking the first NCAA Tournament win in its history, and with a top-10 defense, it has a great chance to make it happen.
On the flip side, Vanderbilt has a top-10 offense powered by 6-foot sophomore guard Tyler Tanner, a first-team All-SEC performer.
Unfortunately, North Carolina will be without its best player, as 6-foot-10 freshman forward Caleb Wilson, an All-America contender, broke his thumb in practice two weeks ago.
Some NBA prospects to keep an eye on (all projected to be first-round picks in Hoops HQ’s latest mock draft): Wagler, Flemings, Haugh, Tanner, 6-foot-11 freshman forward Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston) and 6-foot-4 senior guard Bennett Stirtz (Iowa).
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Under the Radar
No. 11 seed VCU finished tied atop the A-10, then won the conference tournament in coach Phil Martelli’s first season. The red-hot Rams enter March Madness having won 16 of their past 17 games.
Student manager Amir “Aura” Khan and beloved underdog McNeese are back after winning the Southland Conference Tournament. Will Wade may be at NC State, but the 12th-seeded Cowboys still have an excellent defense that’s averaging 10.5 steals per contest (second in Division I). As a result, they rank 13th in the country in fastbreak points.
No. 13 seed Troy has a balanced attack led by 6-foot-8 junior forward Thomas Dowd, a first-team All-Sun Belt selection who averages 14.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. Dowd has 17 double-doubles this season (10th nationally).
Welcome back to the Dance, Fran McCaffrey! The former Iowa coach guided Penn to an Ivy League Tournament title. In the championship game, 6-foot-9 junior forward TJ Power erupted for 44 points and 14 rebounds as the Quakers stunned top-seeded Yale in overtime.
We also had a stunner in the Big Sky. No. 15 seed Idaho went 9-9 in league play, then rolled through the conference tournament to punch its first Madness ticket in 26 years.
Matchups We Want To See
- Florida vs. Iowa in the Round of 32. The Gators would be heavily favored, but it’d be awesome to see Stirtz (20.0 points and 4.5 assists per game) try to put the Hawkeyes on his back to pull the upset.
- How about Houston vs. Illinois in the Sweet Sixteen? A defensive juggernaut against an offensive powerhouse, featuring two projected top-10 picks in Flemings and Wagler. Yes, please.
- And the matchup we’re all praying for … Florida vs. Houston in the Elite Eight. A rematch of the unforgettable 2025 national championship game. This one would be an all-out war in the paint.
Best Storyline
For the opening round, the best storyline is whether Nebraska can win its first NCAA Tournament game. The Huskers are 0-8 and making just their third appearance in the Dance since 1998.
And Illinois is one of the most fascinating — and polarizing — teams in the field. Their offense is explosive, but they’re one of only two top-3 seeds with a defense that ranks outside the top 25 (Purdue is the other). How far will the Illini advance in this stacked region?
Bracket Buster
I was tempted to take McNeese State, but Vanderbilt’s elite guards should be able to carry them past a feisty Cowboys team. I’m going with VCU to knock off North Carolina and make Illinois sweat in the Round of 32. The Rams have a ton of momentum after surging to the top of the A-10, and hot streaks often carry over to the NCAA Tournament.
The Pick
Florida over Houston in the Elite Eight. If we’re lucky enough to get this game, it likely comes down to the wire. I lean Florida mostly because of its dominance in the paint and on the glass. I’m confident Florida’s guards — 6-foot-4 senior Xaivian Lee and 6-foot-3 sophomore Boogie Fland — will step up, but the Gators have the ability to win even when they aren’t knocking down shots. As a result, I trust them more than any other team in the tournament.
Meet your guide
