Nebraska’s Fred Hoiberg was the early choice.
Then Michigan’s Dusty May was looking like the consensus pick.
But now the time has come to put Duke’s Jon Scheyer in the pole position to be the National Coach of the Year.
Scheyer has done a marvelous job with the Blue Devils this season, as evidenced by the 68-63 win over No. 1 Michigan Saturday in Washington D.C.
The fourth-year Duke head coach may be doing his best coaching job, and that’s saying something considering Scheyer coached the Blue Devils to a Final Four in his third season (also his second consecutive Elite Eight).
The Blue Devils are on pace to be the No. 1 overall seed and have a 13-2 record in quad one games entering the final week of February. Duke’s two losses were self-inflicted, losing a 17-point lead to Texas Tech in Madison Square Garden in December and a 13-point lead that led to a buzzer beater by Seth Trimble at North Carolina earlier this month.
Hold on to those games and the Blue Devils are undefeated.
And this Duke team is third in scoring defense at 63.2 points a game, only trailing traditional defensive powers Northern Iowa and Houston.
Duke has a chance to have a second straight freshman win the National Player of the Year award. Cooper Flagg won last year and Cameron Boozer is likely going to claim the hardware this season.
The Blue Devils aren’t as loaded as they were a year ago, when Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach both joined Flagg as first-round NBA Draft picks. Sion James and Tyrese Proctor went in the second round.
Among the 2025-26 roster, there is a chance Boozer is the only one that gets selected in the first round. Dame Sarr, a defensive specialist, and Isiaah Evans, who has blossomed into quite a two-way player, are intriguing prospects, but they are hardly the locks that last season’s players were next to Flagg.
Duke still has to play Virginia, travel to rival NC State and host North Carolina before going into the ACC Tournament as the favorite. The path to Indianapolis will go from Greenville, S.C., to Washington D.C.
But Scheyer’s management of this team, the defensive emphasis and the overall ability to navigate a difficult schedule (won at Michigan State, beat Arkansas in Chicago, Florida at home and Kansas in New York) make him a new favorite. Too often the nod for the award goes to a coach of a team that wasn’t supposed to challenge for a high seed. While it’s true that Duke has plenty of support and does usually get its pick of players in the offseason, putting it all together and building a selfless team around a star is not a walk. And getting them all to buy in defensively is never an easy task. Scheyer and his staff have done it all seamlessly.
And he continues to establish his own identity, even with Mike Krzyzewski still present at Cameron every once in a while and the Duke brotherhood around all the time. Scheyer has found his voice this season more than ever. This is his program now. And he’s got the Blue Devils in position to win a national championship — for the second year in a row, in just his fourth season leading the program.
The mock session and the top 16 reveal
I love that the NCAA men’s basketball selection brought back the mock bracket session. The process is done via computer, with some helpful automated programs that can show why teams can or cannot be on certain seed lines due to conference affiliation, previous matchups or geographic proximity.
I can’t help the conspiracy theorists. It’s just not true to say the committee manipulates the bracket. If you don’t believe it, then I can’t help you anymore. The existing automated process makes it impossible to force a team into a certain slot if it doesn’t work due to previous matchups or the balancing of the bracket. And CBS/TNT aren’t in the room to force matchups for ratings purposely.
The one change I would like to see is the deadline of 6 p.m. ET Selection Sunday. The committee does make contingency brackets based on Sunday championship games; they have done that every year in the modern selection process.
But I do worry about feeling rushed to get the bracket to the Selection Sunday show on CBS. If the show was at 7 or 8 p.m. or even 9 p.m., then maybe there could be a wee bit more time to deal with the finals on Sunday. They do matter if they could affect the top seed lines, let alone the back of the bracket. But keep in mind the championship games in these tournaments are still just one game, like every other game on a team’s resume.
The top-16 reveal is always a great inside look at where the committee sees the top four lines in mid-February. Arkansas and Alabama were the two schools, according to chair Keith Gill, that were just outside the top four lines. I’m still convinced if St. John’s were to win out, the Red Storm can get to a four line. And don’t sleep on UConn being a potential No. 1, either, after checking in as a No. 2 seed in the top 16. If there are three schools that could fall out of the top 16 in the coming weeks, they are Kansas (No. 3 seed, 10 overall), Texas Tech (No. 4 seed, 13 overall) and Vanderbilt (No. 4 seed, 15 overall).
BYU and Texas Tech
The committee did get a chance to see BYU and Texas Tech without major contributors. The Cougars beat Iowa State at home without Richie Saunders and the Red Raiders took care of Kansas State sans JT Toppin. If they continue to play well, they can be judged well and still receive nearly the same seeds they were going to get prior to the injuries.
Donovan Dent
The coast-to-coast Tyus Edney-style layup Donovan Dent converted to beat Illinois in overtime was the bucket UCLA and Dent desperately needed. Dent had a stellar career at New Mexico and was the Player of the Year in the Mountain West last season. And he was rightfully hyped to be an All-Big Ten player. Injuries and the Bruins’ erratic season took him out of contention, but he still has time to make this a memorable year in Westwood. Regardless, he now has a memory for life with that winning layup.
Meet your guide
