These are still very much the early days in the college hoops season and we advise being careful about how much to read into some early results and how much to trust these early trends.
That said, our data has us watching out for a few prime plays this week. If these bets seem obscure and below-the-radar, you can expect more of that throughout the season, because we have learned that there is greater inefficiency with those types of teams. The smart player crunches the numbers to find advantages that aren’t in place for the higher-profile games.
Here are our top three plays heading into the week.
Norfolk State to Win the MEAC (-110 Bet365)
If you read our season preview pieces you know we espoused, in general, seeking futures plays that will return 2-3 times your money and pursuing value in that regard. But there are always exceptions to every rule, and having watched most of the MEAC teams play at least once – including all of the squads with any chance of reaching the Big Dance – we are very confident that Norfolk State is the best of the bunch, and it’s probably not that close. No way in hell you will still be able to get even money on this in a few more weeks, and especially not once conference play begins. In a conference full of manic play, turnover-prone backcourts and horrendous defense, this group is far above the norm. They lack some size for sure, but South Carolina State got killed in the portal and can’t go deep into its bench like a year ago. And while part of the reason we want plus-money returns in the futures market is how long we have to wait to get paid, in this case, in a small conference like this, the Spartans might be able to wrap up the regular season by mid-February.
Georgia Team Total Over 100 vs. Florida A&M (Monday)
Another home court spot for the Dogs and coming off a rivalry game against Georgia Tech on Friday, perhaps this is a letdown spot. But a bigger part of us believes it is the perfect opportunity to keep a torrid start going and continue to score the ball at a breakneck pace against a far inferior opponent that is particularly ill-equipped on the defensive end. Georgia this season has scored: 92, 120, 94 and 104. Could they hang another 120 here like they did on UMES? Um, yeah, they could. In their three games thus far, the Rattlers have allowed 97, 92 and 102. Teams topping 100 points is happening all over the place early in the season; everyone is playing for the analytics and keeping their offensive rating and point differential as high as possible for the rankings.
Towson/JMU Under (Tuesday)
If you asked me to rank the trend we are most in the tank for in mid-November, it’s probably the Towson Tigers to go under vs. nonconference foes. After watching them play an offensively-challenged game against more up-tempo Loyola MD and then sitting through a 51-41 rock fight with Norfolk State, this Towson team is as slowed-down as ever, with better size and rebounding than a year ago. They still are a shooter or two short, and they have gone under in 21 of their 27 games played outside the CAA since 2023. At this point you would have to set a total under 130 to scare us off. These teams met a year ago and produced 130 points in Towson and the Dukes barely cracked 70 vs. Longwood and struggled to score 70 vs. D-III Washington and Lee. Towson had the mighty Houston Cougars on the ropes at Houston in a race to 60 points, and their games this season have gone under by 18, 17, and 46.5 points.
Butler to Cover vs. South Carolina (Friday)
When it comes to covering against nonconference teams, Butler does it … over and over and over again. Butler is already 3-0 ATS this season, and while this is obviously a jump up in quality of opponent, the wise guys in Vegas continue to have a heck of a time pricing these Butler games correctly. Butler has covered by 7, 11 and 5.5 points this season, picking up where they have left off in nonconference games. They are a ridiculous 24-13-1 covering in out-of-conference spots since 2022. The Gamecocks did not look impressive in wins over NC A&T and Southern Miss and are just 7-9 ATS vs. nonconference teams since the start of last season, and they are winning those games by an average of 11 points. This will be a far bigger number than that to try to cover here at a neutral site in West Virginia.
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