Caesars Sportsbook says Tennessee is favored by 4.5 points to beat Kentucky in the first Midwest Region semifinal Friday night in Indianapolis.
KenPom’s hyper-realistic algorithms have calculated that, presuming a neutral atmosphere inside Lucas Oil Stadium, the Vols should beat the Wildcats by 6.26 points.
So why did Kentucky beat Tennessee both times they met during the regular season — 78-73 in Knoxville and 75-64 in Lexington?
Perhaps this factoid provides the answer. Here are the teams that shot at least 50 percent from 3-point range against Tennessee this season:
1. Kentucky (12-of-24 on Jan. 28).
2. Kentucky (12-of-24 on Feb. 11).
There is no third. Only one other opponent (Vanderbilt) cracked the 40 percent barrier.
Considering the Volunteers rank third nationally in three-point defense (28.3 percent) and third nationally in KenPom defensive efficiency (89.3 points allowed per 100 possessions), it certainly feels like Kentucky has cracked Tennessee’s defensive code.
Kentucky 6-foot-7 senior sharpshooter Koby Brea — who was 6-of-9 from three-point range in those games — certainly didn’t try Thursday to dissuade anybody who might hold that opinion.
“I think the coaches do a really good job of scouting the way they guard,” Brea said. “They’ve been a really good defensive team, but I feel we’ve seen their defense a couple times this year (and) teams that do similar things. So we kind of just do what we do every game and just scout them and work on the things that they’re good at and how we’re able to use that against them.
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“I’m sure that they’ll probably try to change things up a little bit since the first two times didn’t work out too well. But we’re going to continue to do what we do. We work on every type of defense guarding us. Just gotta continue to do us.”
Tennessee coach Rick Barnes all but suggested Kentucky’s coaches outfoxed the Vols in the first two games.
“When they’re open, do I think their shots are going to go in? Absolutely,” Barnes said. “But you also have to think that might be part of their schemes that we weren’t ready for. You have to give them all the credit. But we’ve got to be better, we know that.”
Kentucky coach Mark Pope, as he always does, waxed enthusiastic with the media Thursday. He loves his team and how much his players and staff enjoy being around each other. He even loves being back in Indianapolis, where he spent the first two years of his NBA career with the Indiana Pacers until, as he joked, “Coach (Larry) Bird fired me.”
But when asked for what type of advantage his Wildcats might hold over the Vols because they won the first two meetings, he wasn’t nearly as direct.
“If we really parse details,” Pope said, “there’s certainly maybe the emotional advantage of winning two that you feel like you know you can (win a third time). There’s the strategic side of coming to know to consider you might have a better idea of, if you’re going to make changes, a better idea of how and why.”
Allow us to translate: Pope expects Barnes to counter with some different defenses, so he’ll be ready to counter those counters.
“But I think that’s like the .1 percent,” Pope said. “I think mostly this is a free-standing game. This is a great Tennessee team. It’s one of the top teams in the country. It’s the best defensive team in the country. They have one of the best offensive teams in the country.”
For the record, Kentucky wasn’t quite the same team in each of its regular-season wins over Tennessee. In the five-point win Jan. 28 at Tennessee, 6-foot-2 senior point guard Lamont Butler wasn’t available — but Jaxson Robinson produced 17 points in 34 minutes.
For the rematch Feb. 11 at Kentucky, Robinson was out with a wrist injury that has since ended his season. Butler, though, contributed six points and four assists in 22 minutes.
Despite his painful left shoulder he tries to protect with a brace, Butler has decided he’s going to go full-throttle the rest of the season. In Sunday’s second-round win over Illinois, Butler played 33 minutes — his longest outing since Jan. 11 — and delivered 14 points, 5 assists and 3 steals while shackling projected lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis.
Trying to slow down Tennessee 5-foot-9 All-American guard Zakai Zeigler (13.7 points per game, 7.4 assists per game) will be a whole ’nother challenge — but Pope knows Butler won’t back down.
“As a parent,” Pope said, “when you see your children doing things better than you ever did them and being smarter than you ever were and doing things that are so brave and so bold, we all know what that feels like. That’s how I feel about Lamont Butler. He’s doing things that you just shouldn’t have to ask a player to do.”
