When word spread on April 7 that John Calipari was leaving the Kentucky Wildcats and was heading to Arkansas, it shook the college basketball world to its core. Cal and Big Blue Nation were the ideal fit when he was hired in 2009, but the relationship had grown stale. Most Cats fans weren’t shedding tears when Calipari departed Lexington following four seasons with just a single NCAA Tournament victory.
In Fayetteville, meanwhile, Arkansas fans rejoiced at the addition of arguably the game’s best recruiter, a coach best-known for assembling talent.
Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek won the press conference.
But Calipari hasn’t won enough games.
Now, with the Razorbacks sitting in last place in the SEC with a 0-5 record, there are plenty wondering whether Calipari was the right hire after all. There are only four high-major programs still searching for a league win: South Carolina, Miami, Colorado and the Razorbacks. That’s not the kind of company Arkansas fans thought they were joining.
Calipari was supposed to make Arkansas fans forget about Eric Musselman, who put the program back on the national map with a pair of Elite Eight appearances and a Sweet 16 in his five seasons in Fayetteville before leaving for USC. Instead, Arkansas fans aren’t the only ones wondering whether time has passed the 65-year-old Calipari by as this version of college sports isn’t dominated by freshmen, as was the case with his best Kentucky teams, but rather experienced transfers.
Calipari’s NIL resources stack up with those of any coach in the country. Multiple coaches estimate that Arkansas’ payroll is in excess of $7 million. That was a big reason Calipari was willing to take the job in the first place. With that kind of money, he could have brought in pretty much whomever he wanted. He opted to bring three players with him from Kentucky: Adou Thiero, D.J. Wagner and Zvonimir Ivisic. Thiero (16.4 points, 6.0 rebounds per game) has been terrific, but Wagner (10.1 points per game) and Ivisic (7.3 points per game) have both been disappointing.
Calipari also took three freshmen from his six-man Kentucky signing class: Boogie Fland (15.1 points, 5.7 assists per game), Karter Knox (6.3 points per game) and Billy Richmond (4.8 points per game). All three were ranked in the Top 30 of their class nationally, but for the most part they haven’t panned out.
Then Calipari went out and hit the transfer portal, landing one of the most coveted players in FAU transfer Johnell Davis (8.3 points per game), who led the Owls to the Final Four two years ago and averaged 18.2 points per game last season. He also added former Tennessee big man Jonas Aidoo (6.4 ppg) and retained Trevon Brazile.
Good players, all. And yet, as a team, they’ve been mediocre at best, and oftentimes worse than that. “They have a ton of individual talent,” one SEC coach told Hoops HQ. “But none of their pieces fit. None of them.”
There were 16 high-major coaching changes this past offseason. Calipari is the only one still searching for a league victory. Even DePaul’s Chris Holtmann snapped the program’s 39-game Big East regular-season losing skid last week. To make things worse for Calipari, his replacement, Mark Pope, has the Kentucky Wildcats at 14-4 (3-2 in the SEC) and ranked in the Top 10. Pat Kelsey, who took over a Louisville program that was the biggest laughing stock in the country, has the Cardinals 14-5 and 7-1 in the ACC.
“I don’t think Calipari and his staff can adapt,” another SEC coach told Hoops HQ.
When Calipari could always count on out-talenting everyone else, whether it was in the Atlantic-10 at UMass, in Conference USA while at Memphis and much of his tenure in Lexington, his X’s and O’s shortcomings could be masked. But now that he is on a similar playing field as many others in the SEC talent wise, he and his staff are being exposed.
Speaking of the staff, it’s a group that thrived in the pre-NIL Era, when relationships mattered. Kenny Payne, Ronald “Chin” Coleman and Chucky Martin are all veterans, but “they all do the same thing,” one SEC assistant told me.
Calipari lost former NBA development guy John Welch after one season to Fresno State and basically replaced him with his son, 28-year-old Brad Calipari. “They don’t have anyone innovative, they are outdated in how they do things,” the assistant said.
NIL helps, but it’s clear that money doesn’t always buy a winner. Arkansas, Kansas State and Indiana have three of the highest-priced rosters in college basketball, yet all three would be on the outside looking in if the NCAA Tournament started today.
Why? None of their pieces fit.
Calipari and his staff have put together yet another team that struggles to shoot. That was a constant issue for the majority of his time at Kentucky. This group ranks 202nd in the country in three-point percentage (33.6 percent) and 216th in made threes per game (7.4 makes).
Davis looks completely lost under Calipari and it makes no sense. This was a guy who scored 35 points in a win over Arizona last season, one of three times he scored 30 or more in a game a year ago. He shot 48 percent from the field, 41 percent from three and was an All-American candidate. At Arkansas, Davis has virtually no role in the offense and can often be found standing at the three-point line. He’s averaging 8.3 points per game and shooting a career-low 41 percent from the field.
“He doesn’t play freely at all under Calipari,” said an opposing coach. “He doesn’t know where his shots are, so he looks skittish and lost.”
Yurachek handed Calipari a five-year deal worth about $7 million per year as well as the deep NIL pool. Thus far, all that money has been wasted. “How do I keep this team in a mindset that they understand it’s the team that beat Michigan, it’s a team that’s won tough games,” Calipari said following an 18-point loss at Missouri on Saturday.
Won tough games? Against whom?
Besides that comeback win against Michigan, Arkansas’ resume is as underwhelming as just about any high-major in the entire country. The Hogs are 1-7 in Quad 1 contests. The second-most impressive win came in the season opener at home against Lipscomb. Yes, Lipscomb.
Calipari has had success in the past spinning events in a positive fashion. The difference was that he had a track record to buy some patience from the fans. That’s not yet the case in Fayetteville. When Calipari first got to Kentucky, he went out and shook hands and kissed babies. And he won. He has yet to connect in the same fashion with the Arkansas fan base.
All of this begs an important question: Has Cal lost his fastball?
Calipari did land one of the top players in the country for next season, Darius Acuff Jr., but he wasn’t able to bring in other five-star targets like A.J. Dybantsa (who committed to BYU), Cameron Boozer (Duke), Darryn Peterson (Kansas) or skilled forward Nate Ament (uncommitted). Maybe Acuff Jr., will be the next great freshman point guard under Calipari and he’ll flip the roster next season and turn the naysayers into backers. Other than that, there’s not much reason for optimism.
One source who worked with Calipari at Kentucky told me that Cal’s work ethic and hunger hasn’t been the same since prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. The source suspects that Calipari doesn’t have the same juice as a recruiter and while his ability to motivate, get talent to buy into roles and prepare young players for the NBA remain his biggest strengths, Calipari’s ability to put together a team that fits and implement a modern-day offense remains a potentially fatal concern.
“There’s just no fear now when I see him on the other sideline,” one SEC head coach told Hoops HQ. “The game has changed and he is becoming archaic.” It may be early in Calipari’s tenure at Arkansas, but it’s already feeling like he’s running out of time.