It’s the middle of January, so it’s no longer early in the season. But it’s not all that late, either.
But as Yogi Berra would say, for some teams, it’s starting to get late early.
There is much to be decided in the next two months. Some teams have pretty much locked in their place in the NCAA Tournament, barring a major collapse. Some teams are pretty much eliminated from contention, barring a major miracle.
Then, there are those right in the middle whose fortunes can go either way. There’s still time for them to get signature wins, but opportunities are starting to get fewer. Here is a list of the 10 teams with the most pressure to win their key games over the next two weeks.
10. Pittsburgh Panthers – 12-4 (3-2 ACC)
Upcoming games: at FSU, Clemson, at Syracuse, UNC
The blowout at Duke and the home loss to Louisville last week hurt the metrics for the Panthers, which was their strongest selling point, so their margin of error has slipped. The next four games for them are all losable, including road games at a feisty FSU squad and the rivalry matchup with the Orange. This stretch will show if Pitt is a definite top-tier ACC team or one destined for the middle.
9. Indiana Hoosiers – 13-4 (4-2 Big Ten)
Upcoming games: Illinois, at Ohio State, at Northwestern, Maryland
The Hoosiers are currently 1-4 against Quad 1 opponents. The next four opponents are all in that range, giving them opportunities to shore up their most significant flaw. And if freshman star Kasparas Jakucionis doesn’t play for Illinois on Tuesday, then that becomes a “must-win” battle for Indiana.

8. Georgia Bulldogs – 14-2 (2-1 SEC)
Upcoming games: at Tennessee, Auburn, at Arkansas, at Florida
Last week, the wins over Kentucky and Oklahoma got Georgia on the right side of the at-large picture. But these next set of opponents are brutal, taking on a trio of top-5 teams. That road battle at Arkansas may be the most tricky as losing to them will force them to beat the other three or fall to 2-5 in league play.
7. Penn State Nittany Lions – 12-5 (2-4 Big Ten)
Upcoming games: at Michigan State, Rutgers, at Iowa, at Michigan
Penn State missed its big chance at beating Oregon without Ace Baldwin, and injuries are starting to stack up for them. They now have a trio of road contests, including the top teams in the Big Ten, and a home battle with Rutgers, who itself is banged up. This stretch will either have them back in the NCAAT mix or way out of the field altogether.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes – 12-4 (3-2 Big Ten)
Upcoming games: at USC, at UCLA, Minnesota, Penn State
Iowa has zero Quad 1 wins, and only one of the upcoming games (UCLA) fits in that category. That USC battle this week remains important, while Penn State and Minnesota will just be about trying to avoid a bad loss on their resume.
5. Oklahoma Sooners – 13-3 (0-3 SEC)
Upcoming games: Texas, South Carolina, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M
After losing at home to Texas A&M without Wade Taylor, there’s now some concern about the Sooners’ viability in the SEC. These next two home games are “must wins,” while a rematch with the Aggies looms. If Oklahoma doesn’t at least split these games, they could be in trouble with at-large bids.

4. VCU Rams – 12-4 (2-1 Atlantic 10)
Upcoming games: Saint Louis, at St. Joe’s, at Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure
The early mayhem in the A-10, which was just a few games in, may have doomed the conference to be a one-bid league unless Dayton turns it around and stops losing bad games. VCU quietly still doesn’t have a bad resume, but these next few games will determine if they have any at-large hopes. If they don’t go 3-1 against the top teams in the league, then we can dismiss the Rams from the at-large talks.
3. SMU Mustangs – 12-4 (3-2 ACC)
Upcoming games: at Virginia, at Miami, Louisville, at NC State
The Mustangs have either destroyed teams or been destroyed, leaving a question mark as to how good they are. These next two weeks will be a nice measuring stick, with three road games and at home against the second-best team (Louisville). With the road games being either Quad 2 or 3, there’s little to gain if you’re SMU but a lot to lose.
2. Cincinnati Bearcats – 10-5 (0-4 Big 12)
Upcoming games: at Colorado, Arizona State, Texas Tech, at BYU
Time is running out for the Bearcats and their current slim at-large hopes. All of these upcoming opponents are beatable, but based on how Cincy has played, all of these games are also loseable. They’re in danger of having too many league losses, so if they want to make the Big Dance this year, they must start racking up wins.

1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons – 12-4 (4-1 ACC)
Upcoming games: Stanford, at Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke
Wake has recently played its best basketball, winning its last three ACC games. But this stretch could singlehandedly determine whether they can make the Big Dance. The first two games are landmines they must avoid, while the in-state battles against the blue bloods are massive. That would be the signature win to bolster the Deacons into the at-large field if they can beat Duke. Otherwise, they’ll have plenty of work to do going forward.