There are many reasons to label a team a “surprise”, chief among them that they’ve overachieved compared to preseason expectations. For this exercise, I’ll be looking at the top 10 early-season surprises. Note: The list below only includes teams that were picked in the bottom half of their conferences’ preseason polls.
10. Rice
Preseason pick in AAC: 13th
Record: 9-4 (No. 143 NET)
It’s admittedly poor timing to include the Owls since they suffered a loss to a non-DI school on December 19, but considering they were picked dead last in the American, they’ve been one of the biggest overachievers. They also beat Arkansas State, something preseason favorites UAB and Memphis couldn’t do.
9. Missouri
Preseason pick in SEC: 13th
Record: 10-2 (No. 45 NET)
The Tigers have had one of the softer non-con schedules, but they do have a massive win over then-No. 1 Kansas. Duke transfer Mark Mitchell (13.8 ppg) has been a standout newcomer, while sophomore Anthony Robinson is having a breakout campaign.
8. Rhode Island
Preseason pick in A-10: 11th
Record: 11-1 (No. 71 NET)
Wins over Temple, Providence and Charleston aren’t the greatest resume builders, but Coach Archie Miller’s squad is potent enough to beat anyone in the A-10. Albany transfer Sebastian Thomas (17.6 ppg and 7.0 apg) has been the most impactful newcomer, one of five double-digit scorers on a team that ranks in the top 20 in offense.
7. SMU
Preseason pick in ACC: 13th
Record: 10-2 (No. 30 NET)
The Mustangs are already 2-0 in league play, boasting one of the best offenses in the country. Six players are averaging 10 or more ppg, led by Wake Forest transfer Boopie Miller. In an ACC that’s not collectively strong, SMU has a great opportunity to have a big introductory campaign.
6. Oregon State
Preseason pick in WCC: 7th
Record: 10-3 (No. 51 NET)
The former (for now) Pac-12 school lost all of its key pieces from last season except forward Michael Rataj, who leads the team in scoring (15.5 ppg) and rebounding (8.7 rpg). The Beavers have a win over UC Irvine and nearly beat rival Oregon. Look for them to be a genuine thorn in the sides of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s in WCC play.
5. Penn State
Preseason pick in Big Ten: 17th
Record: 10-2 (No. 32 NET)
Penn State’s offense has been one of the season’s biggest storylines, averaging nearly 90 ppg. Ace Baldwin Jr. (14.2 ppg and 8.5 apg) is one of six players averaging at least 10 ppg, with NIU transfer Yanic Konan Niederhauser being one of the more important newcomers in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions’ home win over Purdue gives them a big resume builder as they look to be a contender in league play.
4. Wisconsin
Preseason pick in Big Ten: Tied for 12th
Record: 10-3 (No. 37 NET)
The Badgers were one of the nation’s biggest surprises early on, beating Arizona and Pittsburgh to be ranked as high as 11th in the AP poll. Three straight losses have dented the praise a bit, but they’re still an NCAA Tournament team led by star transfer John Tonje (19.2 ppg).
3. West Virginia
Preseason pick in Big 12: 13th
Record: 9-2 (No. 33 NET)
The Mountaineers entered the Battle 4 Atlantis with little hype but came out of the MTE with wins over Gonzaga and Arizona. Oklahoma State transfer Javon Small (19.7 ppg and 4.8 apg) is playing at an all-league level, but the health of forward Tucker DeVries will be something to monitor the rest of the way.
2. Maryland
Preseason pick in Big Ten: 10th
Record: 10-2 (No. 7 NET)
Coach Kevin Willard did a great job building his roster in the offseason, bringing in a lot of impactful players. Five-star freshman Derik Queen (16.8 ppg and 8.3 rpg) has been one of the best players in the Big Ten. The Terrapins have wins over Villanova, Syracuse and Ohio State and currently have a top 10 offense in the country.
1. Oklahoma
Preseason pick in SEC: 15th
Record: 12-0 (No. 41 NET)
The Sooners are not only one of four remaining unbeaten teams, they also have six high-major wins. Freshman Jeremiah Fears (18.0 ppg and 4.7 apg) has been one of the biggest individual surprises, while senior Jalon Moore (17.3 ppg) has been a breakout contributor. In an SEC that’s historically good, Oklahoma has managed to carve its own spot in the top-tier.
