For the first time in the 2025-26 college basketball season, we can rank teams based not on projections, but results. It’s time to put some real meat on this bone.
There was plenty for me to chew on from the first week, including four games featuring ranked teams playing each other. I accounted for those results on my AP ballot, but as the season goes on, it will be impossible to keep all the head-to-head results in proper order. There are too many games, which means lots of wonderful disorder to arrange properly.
Once again, I’m relying on metrics to help me make these decisions — though as I always say, metrics are useful, not gospel. The NCAA’s NET (which is predictive-based) and Kevin Pauga’s KPI Ratings (results-based) are not yet available, so for the first few weeks of the season I will rely primarily on three metrics: KenPom (which takes into account data from last season), BartTorvik (adjusted to include only games from the season) and BartTovik’s Wins Above Bubble (WAB). Those rankings are listed in order beside each team below. The number in parentheses indicates where the team was ranked on my ballot last week.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s basketball, as filed to the Associated Press on Sunday night:
DROPPED OUT: Auburn (25)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Vanderbilt (15-13-9), Wisconsin (18-41-52), Baylor (20-120-96), NC State (25-27-31), Creighton (44-109-124), Ohio State (35-74-77), Oregon (52-135-22), Washington (48-90-117), Virginia Tech (65-78-13), Clemson (24-9-126)
NOTES ON THE VOTES
- Frequent visitors to this space know that I put significant weight on where a game is played, so a team like North Carolina beating a team like Kansas at home won’t always correlate to a change in their order on my ballot. But in this case, the Tar Heels looked like the better team regardless of where the game was played. The metrics reflect that. The Heels got bad news on Sunday when senior forward Seth Trimble, the team’s lone returning player from last season, broke his left arm during a team workout. Trimble will have surgery this week and there is no timetable yet on his return. I do take injuries into account when I’m voting, but it’s too early to tell what impact this will have. The Heels have a relatively easy stretch in their schedule and then have a tough gauntlet at the end of the month that will have them playing Michigan State, Kentucky and Georgetown in succession.
- Alabama vaulted into my top five following the win over St. John’s in Madison Square Garden. The Tide certainly passed the eye test in that one. They will continue to be tested as Nate Oats has again put together a ridiculous nonconference slate. Next up for Alabama is Purdue at home Thursday night, with Illinois and Gonzaga up next. Sheesh!
- Gonzaga also turned in an impressive performance on Saturday night, dominating Oklahoma 83-68 in Spokane Arena. The Sooners aren’t ranked, but I think they’re an NCAA Tournament caliber team. The Zags’ metrics are as strong as almost any team in the country. I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.
- Texas didn’t make the first AP poll, but the Longhorns squeezed onto the end of my ballot last week. They looked like a top-25 team in the first half against Duke in Charlotte last Tuesday, but ended up losing, 75-60. Obviously I’m not going to drop a team for losing a de facto road game to a top-10 team. We’ll know more about the Horns after their sneaky tough home game against Virginia on Dec. 3.
- UCLA won its first two games, but in unimpressive fashion, beating Eastern Washington by six and Pepperdine by 11. Both games were in Pauley Pavilion. Those results, plus the Bruins’ terrible metrics, led me to drop them 12 spots despite starting off 2-0. The Bruins will have a chance to reverse that plunge completely against Arizona Friday night in Inglewood.
- Indiana jumped onto my ballot by virtue of its dominant 100-77 win over Marquette on Sunday in the United Center. I figured the Hoosiers would be good, but that result plus their very strong metrics convinced me to rank them at No. 20. The Hoosiers’ next six games are very winnable, so don’t be surprised if they continue to climb up my ballot. We’ll see if the rubber hits the road on Dec. 6 when they play Louisville in Indianapolis.
- Auburn didn’t lose last week but the Tigers needed overtime to beat Bethune-Cookman at home in their opener. Their metrics (36-105-063) indicate they are not a top-25 team.
- Every season a few teams emerge early on which I like to call “metrics darlings.” Those are teams whose metrics bely their rankings, and conventional wisdom. My experience is that the conventional wisdom eventually catches up with the metrics, rather than the other way around. So keep your eye on Vanderbilt, which beat Lipscomb and UCF last week and have a metrics profile that would otherwise warrant a top-20 ranking. I’m not going to blindly follow the numbers, but I am watching them. You should too.
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