Bracketology Bubble: Ohio State Struggles, Cal Earns a Bid

It hasn’t been a particularly good week for bubble teams. We saw many of them lose this week, which in turn, has made the bubble relatively weak. USC, New Mexico, Auburn, Indiana and Ohio State all lost this week, opening up the possibility for other teams to sneak back in the field with a big win.

Well, the two teams that came through were Cal and San Diego State. The Golden Bears defeated SMU on Wednesday night, which boosted them into the field for the time being. The selection committee loves it when teams are able to beat other at-large teams and Cal has done that with wins over SMU, North Carolina, UCLA and at Miami. The win over the Mustangs also gave it top-45 resume metrics, which is a big reason why it’s back in the field. The one thing holding the Golden Bears back was their poor record against Quad 1/Quad 2 opponents (which is now 6-8) and their poor nonconference strength of schedule (331). Right now, those deficiencies aren’t enough to keep them out of the field. San Diego State was also able to grab a key victory this week over Utah State. This win lifted the Aztecs into the First Four Out.

Ohio State, on the other hand, remains inconsistent. Actually, the only thing the Buckeyes have been consistent with is the inability to beat good teams. They fell to 1-10 against Quad 1 opponents and are my first team out of the field. Their failures can be remedied on Sunday as the Buckeyes will host Purdue. A win over the Boilermakers would put them back into the field.

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Byes

1.
Georgia Bulldogs
2.
SMU Mustangs
3.
Texas Longhorns
4.
Auburn Tigers

Last Four Teams In

1.
TCU Horned Frogs
2.
California Golden Bears
3.
Santa Clara Broncos
4.
USC Trojans

First Four Teams Out

1.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2.
Indiana Hoosiers
3.
San Diego State Aztecs
4.
Virginia Tech Hokies

Next Four Teams Out

1.
New Mexico Lobos
2.
VCU Rams
3.
Seton Hall Pirates
4.
Oklahoma State Cowboys

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (5), Louisville (6), NC State (8)

Invitations Printed: Miami (8), Clemson (8)

On the List…for Now: SMU (10), California (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Virginia Tech (First 4 Out)

Miami

The Good: SOR: 29, WAB: 28, 10-5 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, 7-4 r/n, beat UNC, Virginia Tech, won at NC State

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Florida St, 1-4 vs Quad 1A

The Outlook: The Hurricanes got revenge on Florida State on Tuesday night and are very close to locking up an at-large bid. They just need to avoid a bad loss to Boston College at home on Saturday and this team will be dancing.

SMU

The Good: No bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 13-9 versus Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 0-5 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: SMU handled its business at home last week against Louisville and Boston College, but followed that up with a loss at Cal to start its West Coast swing. SMU remains in the field at the moment, but it is getting closer and closer to the bubble. A win at Stanford on Saturday is much needed to ease the fears of being on the bubble.

California

The Good: 4-4 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, SMU, UCLA (n), no Quad 3 or Quad 4 L’s

The Bad: 6-8 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 60’s, 2-4 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 331

The Outlook: The Golden Bears added a huge victory over SMU on Wednesday to get them back into the field. Their resume metrics are now in a much better place (WAB: 43) and the improvement in their Quad 1 and Quad 2 record (6-8) is important as well. Cal faces Pitt at home on Saturday. This is a critical game, as a Quad 3 loss could end up costing it an at-large bid.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 41

The Bad: 2-8 Quad 1, WAB: 50, 2-6 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60

The Outlook: The Hokies held serve at home against Wake Forest on Saturday to remain one of the first four teams out. Now comes the hard part. The Hokies play at North Carolina and at Virginia and might need to win one of those in order to get back into the at-large field.

Big East

Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (6), Villanova (8)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out)

Seton Hall

The Good: Beat NC State (n), 7-5 r/n

The Bad: Only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 56, 1-4 Quad 1, 0-3 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 losses

The Outlook: The Pirates followed up a loss at home to DePaul by beating Georgetown on Saturday. Seton Hall has two Quad 3 losses and only one win over an at-large team. That’s just not going to cut it. Consider the Pirates on life support. The only positive is that they still get the opportunity to play at UConn and home against St. John’s. But is that really a positive?

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Purdue (2), Nebraska (3), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (6)

Invitations Printed: Iowa (8)

On the List…for Now: UCLA (9), USC (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out), Ohio State (First 4 Out)

UCLA

The Good: BPI: 32, WAB: 33, SOR: 35, beat Purdue, Illinois and USC

The Bad: KPI: 49, 2-7 Quad 1A

The Outlook: UCLA followed up a huge win over the weekend against Illinois with a victory over crosstown rival — and fellow bubble team — USC. The Bruins are in a much better spot now as they head to Minnesota on Saturday. It’ll be important for the Bruins to beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, regardless of location.

USC

The Good: Won at Wisconsin, beat Indiana, 9-9 Quad 1/Quad 2, 9-5 r/n

The Bad: 2-7 Quad 1, Ken Pom: 59, Quad 3 loss to Oregon, one win over at-large team

The Outlook: USC lost at home to Oregon over the weekend, which puts the Trojans’ at-large hopes in serious danger. Then, while not a bad loss, USC dropped a road contest against rival UCLA. It doesn’t get easier down the stretch either as USC hosts Nebraska and UCLA and plays Washington on the road. The Trojans are going to need to finish up strong to stay on the right side of the bubble.

Indiana

The Good: Beat Purdue, Wisconsin, won at UCLA

The Bad: 2-10 Quad 1, 4-11 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers lost at home to Northwestern on Tuesday night, which knocked them out of the field for now. Indiana has a chance to pick up a quality win on Sunday against Michigan State. It likely now needs this win to put itself back in play for a bid.

Ohio State

The Good: NET: 38, beat Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, no bad losses

The Bad: 1-10 Quad 1, 7-11 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 61

The Outlook: Ohio State is 1-10 against Quad 1 opponents after losing at Iowa on Wednesday. Another missed opportunity for the Buckeyes, whose only Quad 1 win was against Northwestern. One way for Ohio State to get back into the field? Beat Purdue on Sunday. It’s time for a big win.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Iowa State (2), Houston (3), Kansas (3), Texas Tech (4), BYU (6), UCF (7)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: TCU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), West Virginia

TCU

The Good: 4-7 Quad 1, beat Iowa State and Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, KPI: 51

The Outlook: The two bad losses on the Horned Frogs’ resume stick out like a sore thumb. Especially the Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. However, TCU improved its overall resume by knocking off Iowa State and then by winning at Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs, winners of five of their last six games, also beat Arizona State on Tuesday night and remain in the field for now.

Oklahoma State

The Good: No bad losses, beat BYU, Texas A&M and UCF

The Bad: T-Rank: 82, NET: 80, 1-8 Quad 1, 8-11 Quad 1 and Quad 2, NCSOS: 271

The Outlook: The only thing on the Cowboys’ resume keeping them alive right now is the fact that they are top 55 across the board in their resume metrics. Oklahoma State has some solid wins, but all of them have come at home. The schedule to end the regular season isn’t easy. The Cowboys head to Cincinnati and UCF before heading home to face Houston. They likely need to win all three.

West Virginia

The Good: Beat Kansas, won at UCF, BPI: 45

The Bad: Only two wins over at-large teams, NCSOS: 297

The Outlook: West Virginia has lost three in a row and pretty much has zero margin for error. The Mountaineers finish the season with BYU, at Kansas State and UCF. They’re obviously going to need to win all three of these games and do damage in the Big 12 Tournament.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (2), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (5), Arkansas (5)

Invitations Printed: Kentucky (7), Texas A&M (9), Georgia (10), Missouri (10)

On the List…for Now: Texas (10), Auburn (11)

The Uninvited: None

Georgia

The Good: SOR: 33, beat Arkansas, Auburn, won at Missouri, at Kentucky, 10-8 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss, NCSOS: 301, 1-4 Quad 1A

The Outlook: Georgia lost at Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, but this is a team that is still in pretty good shape to receive an at-large bid. The only thing that can really put the Bulldogs’ at-large hopes into question is if they lose at home to South Carolina on Saturday.

Missouri

The Good: SOR: 34, BPI: 42, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: KPI: 47, Ken Pom: 51

The Outlook: The Tigers added a very important win over Tennessee on Tuesday to improve their overall projected seed. Missouri has the quality of wins to receive an at-large bid and just need to not go winless the rest of the way.

Texas

The Good: WAB: 44, SOR: 42, Ken Pom: 31, 5-8 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama and at Missouri

The Bad: KPI: 58, 7-10 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Longhorns lost at home to Florida on Wednesday night. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not a big deal, but their next two games are on the road at Texas A&M and Arkansas. If Texas goes 0-2 in these two games, it is going to be facing an absolute must-win game in the regular season finale against Oklahoma.

Auburn

The Good: Won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky

The Bad: 15-13 overall, 9-13 Quad 1-Quad 3

The Outlook: Auburn has the necessary wins to be an at-large team. The problem is its overall record. Only two teams have ever received an at-large bid while being only to games over .500. And that’s where the Tigers are right now. The Tigers better win their next two home games against Ole Miss and LSU.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3)

Invitations Printed: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (7)

On the List…for Now: Saint Mary’s (9), Santa Clara (Last 4 In), Miami OH (auto)

The Uninvited: San Diego State (First 4 Out), New Mexico (Next 4 Out), VCU (Next 4 Out)

Saint Mary’s

The Good: Top 30 result-based metrics, Top 30 predictive metrics, 8-4 Quad 1/Quad 2, 10-4 r/n, beat Virginia Tech (n), beat Santa Clara

The Bad: 0-3 Quad 1

The Outlook: Saint Mary’s defeated Santa Clara on Wednesday, which moves the Gaels closer to shoring up an at-large bid. They finish up the regular season at home against Gonzaga on Saturday. A win over the Zags and the Gaels will lock up a bid.

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, 9-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 46, T-Rank: 46

The Bad: Maybe just one win over an at-large team, Quad 3 loss at New Mexico State, SOR: 53, BPI: 54

The Outlook: New Mexico missed out on an opportunity to pick up a Quad 1 win on Tuesday as it fell on the road at Nevada. The Lobos still get to face San Diego State at home and Utah State on the road and probably need to go at least 1-1. A lot will also depend on the success of other bubble teams, but New Mexico really still is in control of its destiny.

Miami (OH)

The Good: 25-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 22, WAB: 35, 1-0 Quad 2, 13-0 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 84, zero Quad 1 games played, 24 of 25 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the Red Hawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. Two regular season games remain, and if they are able to avoid a loss in either, I don’t see how this team can be left out of the tourney.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 41, SOR: 43, T-Rank: 32, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 1-5 Quad 1, BPI: 50

The Outlook: The Broncos missed out on another opportunity to pick up a quality win as they lost at Saint Mary’s on Wednesday. Santa Clara is hanging in the field by the skin of its teeth thanks to having relatively strong resume metrics compared to the rest of the bubble. It finishes WCC play at home against Oregon State on Saturday in what is an absolute must-win game.

San Diego State

The Good: Beat New Mexico and Utah State, 5-3 Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs came up clutch on Wednesday as they defeated Utah State in what was a game they really needed to have. San Diego State heads on the road on Saturday at New Mexico. A win over the Lobos has the ability to propel the Aztecs into the field.

VCU

The Good: KPI: 36, BPI: 45, 3-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 51

The Outlook: VCU had a chance to make a statement at Saint Louis last Friday, but failed to come up with the win. Unfortunately, the Rams probably needed this win in order to get an at-large bid. That being said, the bubble isn’t particularly strong, so if VCU can win out and make a run to the A-10 championship game, the possibility of an at-large bid could exist.

Meet your guide

Brad Wachtel

Brad Wachtel, Hoops HQ's lead Bracketologist, has two decades of experience projecting NCAA Tournament brackets. He has appeared on countless outlets, including the Field of 68, SiriusXM College Sports, the Sports Grid, the Asbury Park Press and the Newark Star-Ledger. He is a former men's basketball administrator at Rutgers and director of operations for The Hoop Group.

Bracketology 2026: Men’s Tournament Bubble Teams — Ohio State Struggles, Cal Earns a Bid