This my next-to-last AP Top 25 ballot of the regular season. After that, the next time I perform this exercise will be after the NCAA Tournament is over. March is here, but March will race by in a blur. How do we slow this thing down?
If you’ve been tracking my ballots all season, you know my policy about metrics: They’re useful, but not gospel. But when you get this late in the season, the metrics become more useful, because they include more data. So I’ve leaned more heavily into the numbers this week than at any point.
As usual, I deployed a cross section of metrics to help me set my order: the NET, which is a predictive metric and the NCAA’s primary organizing tool; KPI, which is a results metric that gives added weight to big wins and bad losses; and Wins Above Bubble, which is a purely results-based metric. As I scrubbed my ballot, my general rule was that if a team is ranked ahead of another in all three rankings, it is almost certainly ranked ahead on my ballot. If it’s close, then I went with the team that had the higher ranking in two of the three.
Each team’s rank in those metrics is listed in order beside it. The number in parentheses reflects where it was ranked on my ballot last week.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday night.
DROPPED OUT: Wisconsin (18) 32-29-29, Louisville (19) 17-31-23, BYU (23) 23-26-21
ALMOST FAMOUS: Kentucky (27-32-26), Iowa (28-42-30), NC State (29-27-34), Georgia (30-37-37), Miami (31-33-28), Villanova (33-28-24), Clemson (34-30-38), SMU (35-34-39), Texas (36-48-44), Santa Clara (41-43-41), UCF (46-25-25), Missouri (54-39-35), Belmont (53-36-51)
Notes on the votes
• The Florida Gators have been on a steady rise and now occupy their highest spot on my ballot since I ranked them fourth in the preseason. Their rank might have been even higher if not for the hiccup at home against Auburn on Jan. 24. (That win is also Auburn’s best hope of making it into the NCAA Tournament.) The Gators’ 44-point shellacking of Arkansas re-established them as a bona fide championship favorite and gave them an inside track at a No. 1 seed if they can claim the SEC Tournament title.
• My big riser this week is Texas Tech. When the NCAA men’s basketball committee revealed its top 16 seeds a week ago, chairman Keith Gill said the Red Raiders were moved down a seed line due to the season-ending ACL injury to J.T. Toppin. When they won their first two games over Toppin, it came against subpar competition in Kansas State and Cincinnati. But their 82-73 win at Iowa State on Saturday proved that they can be just as good without their All-American. That win vaulted the Red Raiders ahead of Iowa State, but since they split their regular season series with Houston, and since the Cougars are ranked ahead in two metrics, I ranked Texas Tech one spot behind. The Red Raiders have TCU at home on Tuesday and travel to BYU on Saturday.
• Kansas had a mixed week with a home win over Houston and a 23-point loss at Arizona. The Jayhawks did not play Houston on the road this season. They should have two relatively easy wins over Arizona State and Kansas State this week before heading to Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament.
• You might be surprised that I only dropped Purdue four spots following losses to Michigan State at home and on the road at Ohio State. First of all, the Boilermakers’ metrics have been strong all season. I’ve consistently ranked them behind their numbers and did so again with this ballot. But I don’t know that those two losses are any worse than Virginia’s 26-point drubbing at Duke. Yes, the Blue Devils are looking like the best team in the country, but Virginia’s best win is on the road against a Louisville squad that was playing without freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. I broke my rule about metrics and ranked Purdue behind Alabama, even though the Boilermakers are ranked ahead of the Tide in all three.
• Gonzaga took a tough loss at Saint Mary’s on Saturday, but that wasn’t any worse than Vanderbilt’s 14-point loss at Kentucky. The Commodores have now dropped three of their last four and play at Ole Miss and Tennessee this week. They’ve been metrics darlings all season but their numbers have come back to earth the last few weeks.
• Speaking of metrics, Arkansas’ rankings are holding steady despite the drubbing in Gainesville. I’ve been leaving the Hogs off my ballot because their last really good win was Jan. 3 at home over Tennessee. But there’s much to be said for winning, and as I said at the top, the numbers are the numbers, and the metrics say the Hogs are a top-20 team heading into the postseason.
• I’ve been ranking St. John’s way ahead of their metrics over the last month, but that strategy got it comeuppance with their 32-point loss at UConn last Wednesday. They responded with a 32-point win of their own over Villanova on Saturday. They play Georgetown at home on Tuesday and then have a tricky trap game on Saturday at Seton Hall, which desperately needs a win to preserve its bubble hopes.
• We’ve got two mid-majors who played their way back onto my ballot. The first is perennially Almost Famous Saint Mary’s, which finally crossed the Rubicon with its win at home over Gonzaga on Saturday. Those teams split their regular season meetings, and there’s a good chance they will meet again in the West Coast Conference Tournament final. The other newcomer is Utah State, which makes its first appearance in my top 25. I didn’t like that the Aggies lost by 17 points at San Diego State last week, but they’re in the top 25 of two of my three metrics, and no one else in Almost Famous group can say that.
• Three teams dropped out this week. I’ve been ranking Wisconsin ahead of its metrics since its wins over Illinois and Michigan State, but the Badgers fell last week at Oregon, so they’re out. Louisville has lost three of its last four (including at North Carolina and Clemson last week). The Cardinals’ best win of the season is at home against Kentucky on Nov. 11. That’s not enough anymore. And BYU has lost three out of four, including twice last week to UCF and at West Virginia.
• I’ve got a longer than usual Almost Famous list this week. You could make a case for several of these teams to be ranked, but they are all looking very good as bubble teams. UCF is in the top 25 for two results metrics, but that No. 46 NET rank was too low to overcome. Missouri moved into the top 40 on the results side thanks to wins over Tennessee (home) and Mississippi State (road). And though I don’t think Belmont can play its way into an at-large bid, the Bruins won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title by three games and will be the heavy favorites at Arch Madness. This is the type of team that can pull an upset or two in the NCAA Tournament.
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