We are ready to turn for the final stretch of this regular season, and we have another change at the top of my top-25 ballot. That’s an altogether fitting development for what has been an incredibly riveting regular season. If the past three-and-a-half months are a harbinger for what’s to come, then we are headed for a fantastic March Madness indeed.
Once again, I have used a cross section of metrics to guide my selections: the NET, which is the NCAA’s official organizing tool and takes into account efficiency and margin of victory; KPI, which is a non-linear results metric that gives added weight to good wins and bad losses; and Wins Above Bubble, which is a purely results-based metric. Each team’s ranks in those categories are listed in order. The number in parentheses reflects where they were ranked on last week’s ballot.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday evening.
DROPPED OUT: Kentucky (22)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Utah State (24-21-28), Iowa (25-40-37), Saint Mary’s (26-30-33), SMU (30-29-38), Villanova (31-28-25), Auburn (32-33-36), Santa Clara (40-43-40)
Notes on the votes
• During the selection committee’s bracket reveal show on CBS on Saturday, the chairman, Keith Gill, revealed that there was significant separation between the top three No. 1 seeds (Michigan, Duke, Arizona) and the three teams competing for the fourth spot (Iowa State, Houston, UConn). You could make a case for any of them to be the No. 1 overall seed as well as the No. 1 team on a top-25 ballot. The difference is we have a head-to-head result, and on a neutral court no less. So Duke’s 68-63 win over Michigan in Washington, D.C. should at least move the Blue Devils ahead of the Wolverines on both measures.
The question then becomes whether Duke or Arizona should be the new No. 1. They both have two losses, and the only difference is that Duke has two more Quad 1 wins. Duke also has two more Quad 1-A wins including Michigan and Kansas on neutral courts, a win over Florida at home, and a road win at Michigan State. The metric comparison is basically a wash.
To me, the final differentiator should be based on the order of the teams last week. If I had Arizona ahead of Duke, I would have put the Wildcats at No. 1. But I had Duke in front, so I went with the Blue Devils. Ditto for my order between Michigan and Arizona, especially given that the Wolverines are No. 1 in all three metrics.
Duke’s win aside, these three teams are evenly matched, and we’d all be very pleased if the trio ended up in Indianapolis for the Final Four.
• It’s pretty unusual to have three of my top six coming off losses. Illinois lost by a single point in overtime on the road, and even though it was against unranked UCLA, I didn’t think that warranted moving the Illini behind two teams that also suffered road losses. Houston shouldn’t get dinged for losing to a team ranked ahead in Arizona, even if it was at home. I would have moved the Cougars behind Iowa State because they lost in Ames, but then the Cyclones turned around and lost at BYU on Saturday. Houston remains ahead of the Cyclones in all three metrics, so they remain ahead on my ballot as well.
• I would like my Hoops HQ readers to note that not only have I been ranking St. John’s ahead of their metrics for weeks, I am also ranking them well ahead of my fellow voters, who installed the Red Storm at 17 last week. Because the metrics take into account the entire season, they are not picking up the rapid improvement the Johnnies have shown during their 13-game win streak. I would not be surprised if St. John’s loses at UConn on Wednesday, and it would not change my opinion if they did, unless it’s by a huge margin. I predict that the rest of the world will catch up to this team soon. When it does, you’ll remember who was way ahead of the curve – again.
• Nebraska got back on the winning track with an 87-64 home win over Penn State on Saturday, but the Cornhuskers had lost four of their previous six games following a 20-0 start. While the first three losses came against top-ranked teams in Michigan, Illinois and Purdue, the fourth one came at Iowa by four points. (It was amazing to see an opponent storm the court for a win over Nebraska, even if it did produce an unfortunate moment between Fred Hoiberg and a cell phone-wielding fan.) There’s no shame in that loss, but the accumulation did mean the Huskers needed to move out of my top 10. They play Maryland (home) and USC (away) this week, so even if they win both they probably won’t move up much.
• Texas Tech needed to be moved down after losing at Arizona State, but this is a hard team to assess given that it will be playing the rest of the way without junior forward J.T. Toppin, who tore an ACL in the closing minutes of that loss. The Red Raiders dominated Kansas State by 28 points on Saturday, but we’ll know more about the state of this team this week when they play a resurgent Cincinnati squad at home on Tuesday and then travel to Iowa State on Saturday.
• Gonzaga is flying under the radar, but the Zags continue to win games and post strong metrics. They’ve lost just two games all season to Michigan and Portland and seem to have adjusted to life without Braden Huff. They close the regular season this week with a home game against Portland on Wednesday and then a road rematch with Saint Mary’s open Saturday. Those will be Gonzaga’s final two games in the West Coast Conference before it moves on to the reinvented Pac-12 next season.
• I honestly don’t know what to make of Kansas and this whole Darryn Peterson saga anymore. Peterson asked to check out early in the second half of Wednesday’s win at Oklahoma State, and though he played the whole game against Cincinnati at home on Saturday, he looked like he was laboring and finished with 17 points on 7 of 17 shooting (1 of 7 from three) in an 84-68 loss. When Peterson is playing at his best, Kansas is Final Four good, but the uncertainty surrounding his health and availability is obviously hurting the team. It’s a tough situation all around, and certainly not something a team wants to be going through this late in the season. That’s especially concerning given that the Jayhawks have an epic week with Houston coming to town o Monday and then a road game at Arizona on Saturday.
I might have ranked Utah State if the Aggies had not lost 80-77 at Nevada on Saturday. Still, this team has had strong metrics all season and remains in first place of the Mountain West with a one-game lead over New Mexico and San Diego State. Things won’t get easier as Utah State plays at San Diego State on Wednesday and then hosts fourth-place Grand Canyon on Saturday.
Plenty of other teams at the bottom of my ballot lost last week. North Carolina got throttled at NC State, but given that the Tar Heels were down starters Caleb Wilson and Henry Veesaar, I gave them some latitude. With Veesaar back in the lineup they won at Syracuse on Saturday. Saint Louis lost a tough one at Rhode Island and then had an impressive comeback win at home over VCU. The Billikens only have two losses, and their metrics indicate they are still a top-25 program.
Kentucky got bumped for losing at home to Georgia and then at Auburn. I’ve been writing all season about how the Tigers are my on-again, off-again team, but this week the lone empty slot went to BYU for its 79-69 home win over Iowa State on Saturday. The Cougars have now won three out of four, and all three of their metrics are in the top 25. They have UCF at home Tuesday and then travel to West Virginia Saturday, so I expect them to keep it rolling.
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