For NBA draft prospects projected to be picked outside the lottery, the decision to stay in college or turn pro never has been more difficult. Top players potentially can earn more in NIL than they would in the NBA next season. Rookie contracts are predetermined, based on the spot where the player is drafted; the higher the pick, the greater the salary.
Consider Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, a 6-foot-9 sophomore forward and the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year. Toppin was viewed as a late first- or early second-round pick, and he decided to return to the Red Raiders for an NIL deal reportedly worth $4 million. Late first-round picks can sign four-year guaranteed NBA contracts valued at between $2.3 million and $2.5 million in the first year. The rookie scale does not apply to players selected in the second round, so contracts are far less favorable for guys who fall past No. 30.
Here are 10 prospects who presumably are grappling with whether to stay or go. Several have declared for the draft while maintaining their NCAA eligibility. A few also have entered their names in the transfer portal.
The NBA Draft Combine is scheduled for May 11-18 in Chicago. The deadline for college-eligible players to withdraw from the draft is May 29.
1. Alex Condon, Florida, 6-foot-11 sophomore forward
Condon played a pivotal role for the national champions this season. He was Florida’s most productive big, averaging 10.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.3 blocks and shooting 49.3 percent from the field. While Condon, a 20-year-old Aussie, had some bright moments in the NCAA Tournament, he also struggled immensely at times, decreasing his stock a bit. In the Gators’ 79-73 national semifinal win over Auburn, for instance, he was 0-of-5 from the field and committed three turnovers before fouling out.
Still, Condon’s versatility and motor make him an intriguing prospect. He moves well for his size, possessing the lateral quickness to switch onto guards on defense. His rebounding on both ends was a huge piece of Florida’s success. He flashed impressive passing ability as well, registering at least four assists in nine games. His shooting was inconsistent — 32.8 percent from behind the arc and 60.4 percent from the free throw line — but he clearly has the potential to become a floor spacer at the next level.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. Condon is testing the draft waters, but it is unlikely he will emerge as a surefire first-round pick. After contributing to a national title-winning team, the big man should be rewarded with a big NIL deal by the Gators. Another year under coach Todd Golden and competing in the rugged SEC will be beneficial for Condon’s development.
2. Thomas Haugh, Florida, 6-foot-9 sophomore forward
Unlike Condon, Haugh improved his stock tremendously during the NCAA Tournament — perhaps more than any player outside of teammate Walter Clayton Jr. In six games, the hybrid forward averaged 11.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.2 blocks. He was named to the West All-Region Team after putting up 20 points (on 6-of-11 shooting from the field and 4-of-6 from behind the arc) and 11 rebounds against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight, sinking two clutch three-pointers in crunch time.
A former three-star prospect out of the Perkiomen School in Pennsburg, Pa. (where he was teammates with Princeton star Xaivian Lee, who is in the portal), Haugh, 21, has a similar skill set to Condon but is perhaps a tad more polished. He shot the ball better from three (34 percent) on more attempts per game (2.6). Despite climbing draft boards in March, he still is projected to be a second-round pick.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. As one NBA scout told Hoops HQ, it is hard for players like Haugh and Condon — dynamic bigs — to significantly hurt their stock by staying another year in college. “I don’t think going back is going to hurt them the way it might a shooter who shot 45 percent from three and risks going back and having a down year,” the scout said. “I don’t know how much risk there is for those two — like that archetype — in going back.”
3. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn, 6-foot-1 freshman guard
Pettiford, an electrifying sixth man for the Tigers who averaged 11.6 points and shot 36.6 percent from three, announced that he would be going through the draft process but also left the door open for a return to Auburn.
Pettiford, 19, was a five-star recruit out of Jersey City (N.J.) Hudson Catholic. He is a highly skilled, lightning-quick lefty. In spite of his size, he is fearless with the ball in his hands, putting constant pressure on the basket. Few freshmen have the green light that Pettiford enjoyed this season; then again, few freshmen possess Pettiford’s level of shot-making. There is no question about his elite scoring ability, but NBA teams would like to see him bring more to the table as a playmaker and defender.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. Multiple scouts said they couldn’t envision Pettiford climbing into the top 25, which means it probably makes more sense for him to return to college. He will play a larger role for the Tigers and could make a case to be a lottery pick in 2026.
4. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown, 6-foot-10 freshman center
It has been a while since NBA front offices have been able to evaluate Sorber, who was ruled out for the season in late February with a foot injury. Sorber, 19, captured a lot of attention before that, averaging 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals for the Hoyas through 24 games.
Sorber presumably will be limited in pre-draft workouts, but he has shown enough to put himself in the lottery conversation. His low-post game is extremely advanced for his age and there is optimism that he will develop as a shooter — he shot 72.4 percent from the free throw line on 4.4 attempts per contest. With his massive frame and long arms, Sorber can be disruptive on defense as well.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Sorber was not originally expected to be a one-and-done player out of Philadelphia Archbishop Ryan, but he is high enough on draft boards now to justify leaving Georgetown. Assuming there aren’t major concerns about his injury during pre-draft medical reviews, Sorber seems like a lock to be picked somewhere in the first round.
5. Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan, 6-foot-9 senior forward
Everyone in Ann Arbor is eagerly awaiting Lendeborg’s NBA decision, as he already has announced that he will be heading to Michigan if he doesn’t enter the draft. Lendeborg, a two-time AAC Defensive Player of the Year, did a little bit of everything for UAB in 2024-25: 17.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.7 steals, while shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from deep. In a 94-77 win over East Carolina in mid-March, Lendeborg put up 30 points, 20 rebounds, 8 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks.
As Hoops HQ draft expert Jonathan Wasserman outlined in his latest mock, Lendeborg will draw consideration from teams picking in the 20s because of how his skill set has expanded. “Lendeborg is a Swiss Army knife who finishes, passes and makes plays defensively,” Wasserman wrote. “But his improving face-up game and shot have made Lendeborg a more believable and enticing pro prospect.”
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Lendeborg has said that he would prefer to play at Michigan if he is going to be on a two-way contract, bouncing between the NBA and the G League. But if he ends up getting picked where he is projected in Hoops HQ’s mock (26th), that won’t be the case.
6. RJ Luis Jr., St. John’s, 6-foot-7 junior wing
The season ended on a rough note for Luis — he went 3-of-17 from the field and was benched down the stretch by coach Rick Pitino in the Red Storm’s 75-66 loss to Arkansas in the Round of 32 — but he had an exceptional junior year. With Luis, 22, leading the way, St. John’s far exceeded expectations, winning the Big East regular-season and tournament titles. Luis was the conference’s player of the year and a consensus All-American, averaging 18.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.4 steals.
Pitino advocated for Luis, a Miami native, to be a first-round pick all season long. “He is going to be an even better pro than he is a college player,” Pitino told Hoops HQ in November, “because he’s your best defensive player. He rebounds, runs well, good athlete, scores the basketball, passes the basketball. He’s going to be terrific at the next level where the lanes aren’t as congested.” Still, NBA teams are understandably hesitant about Luis because of his streaky shooting. He connected on just 33.6 percent of his threes this year and scored a lot of his buckets in transition.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. Luis declared for the draft and simultaneously entered the portal to explore all his options. Unless he pops in a major way during the pre-draft process, he is not expected to be picked higher than late in the second round. If he stays in college, there is a clear path to Luis boosting his stock (while receiving a large sum of NIL): increasing his efficiency from behind the arc. One NBA scout also would “like to see a little bit more pick-and-roll polish and a little bit more isolation” from him in 2025-26.
7. Will Riley, Illinois, 6-foot-8 freshman wing
Riley, a five-star recruit from The Phelps School in the Philadelphia suburbs, won Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year honors after averaging 12.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists. His three-point shooting was inconsistent (32.6 percent), but he clearly has the tools — and the confidence — to become an elite marksman in the NBA. With his size and high-level offensive game, scouts see tremendous upside in Riley, 19.
Illinois coach Brad Underwood called Riley “one of the most gifted offensive talents” he has coached. Underwood said Riley also possesses an “unparalleled” work ethic, as he gained more than 20 pounds before the start of the season because of his dedication to the weight room. Riley is focused on adding more muscle ahead of the draft process and will continue to refine his outside shot, which is what will entice NBA teams the most.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Riley seems more likely to be in the lottery mix than to fall out of the first round. He is currently projected to be the No. 23 pick in Hoops HQ’s mock. “I would be very surprised if he fell (to the second round),” one scout said. “I think he’s a guy who might rise.”
8. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech, 6-foot-6 junior forward
In his second season with the Red Raiders, Williams took another major step forward, averaging 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.3 steals, while shooting 43.9 percent from the field and 34 percent from three. The do-it-all forward was named first-team All-Big 12 and made the West All-Region Team in the NCAA Tournament, where he had three consecutive 20-point outings.
Williams declared for the draft and entered the portal at the beginning of April. He is older than most of the prospects on this list, turning 22 on April 23, and lacks explosive athleticism. But he is among the most versatile players in the draft pool. He contributes to winning in several ways, easily slotting into different roles. “The IQ and competitiveness just makes me feel like he’s going to figure it out (in the NBA),” one scout said.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. Williams could very well become a solid role player in the NBA, but he likely would go in the second round if he doesn’t withdraw from this year’s draft. Coming off a sensational season at Texas Tech, he will have plenty of suitors in the portal and receive seven figures in NIL wherever he lands. It is hard to imagine Williams’ stock changing dramatically one way or the other should he remain in college for his senior season.
9. Tyrese Proctor, Duke, 6-foot-6 junior guard
Many expected Proctor to be one-and-done at Duke, but the Australian guard needed a bit longer to develop. He is coming off a season in which he shot a blistering 40.5 percent from deep and averaged a career-high 12.4 points per contest. He opened the NCAA Tournament by hitting 13 of his first 16 attempts from three, showcasing his impressive growth as a perimeter threat.
Proctor has great positional size and was a huge piece of Duke’s standout defense. At 21 and with three seasons at Duke (and 97 starts) under his belt, he is more experienced and polished than a majority of the guards in the draft. Most mocks project him to be taken in the second round.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Could Proctor return to Duke and improve his stock? It’s possible. But it’s also a significant risk given how well he shot the ball this season. If his efficiency dips, he could wind up falling on 2026 draft boards. One factor that may work to Proctor’s advantage should he enter the draft: Younger prospects ahead of him ultimately may decide to stay in college, clearing the way for him to ascend in the rankings.
10. Drake Powell, North Carolina, 6-foot-6 freshman wing
Powell seems to be a polarizing prospect, with some mock drafts projecting him to be a late first-round pick and others leaving him off entirely. NBA teams are intrigued by Powell’s 3-and-D potential — he shot 37.9 percent from deep and showed a lot of promise as a lockdown defender at UNC — but he didn’t make quite the splash that some anticipated as a five-star prospect and McDonald’s All-American out of Pittsboro (N.C.) Northwood.
Playing alongside several ball-dominant guards, Powell often was silent offensively. He didn’t showcase much of an offensive game outside of his perimeter shooting (95 of his 211 shot attempts came from behind the arc).
HHQ Prediction: Stays. The way it looks now, Powell would be taking a serious gamble entering the draft. That could change if he makes a strong impression at the combine, which is definitely possible given his athleticism and precision from three. But with RJ Davis graduating and Elliot Cadeau transferring to Michigan, Powell would have a much bigger role for the Tar Heels next season.
