Seth Davis’s Preseason Top 25: Everyone Is Chasing Purdue and Houston

1. Purdue

The Boilermakers get the top nod for bringing back two first team All-America candidates in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn from the squad that lost to Houston in the Sweet Sixteen on a last-second BLOB. Matt Painter is also bringing in one of the nation’s top international prospects in Omar Mayer, a combo guard from Israel, and one of the top domestic transfers in Oscar Cluff, a center from South Dakota State. I’m especially intrigued to see what 7-foot-4 freshman center Daniel Jacobsen will contribute after missing all but one game last season due to a broken leg.

2. Houston

The Cougars were one possession away from winning the national championship, but they have a chance to surpass that this season after bringing back a trio of starters. Point guard Milos Uzan came close to leaving for the NBA, but he will team up with fellow returnee Emanuel Sharp to form the best backcourt tandem in the Big 12. Kelvin Sampson has no peer when it comes to player development, and he has one of best-ever recruiting classes, which features three players ranked in the top 20 nationally by 247Sports.

3. St. John’s

Rick Pitino spared no expense in filling his roster with highly coveted transfers like Bryce Hopkins (Providence), Ian Jackson (North Carolina) and Dillon Mitchell (Texas). Now we’ll see if he can take all these parts and forge them into a cohesive unit. It will help if the Johnnies’ lone returning starter, 6-foot-9 senior center Zuby Ejiofor, can have a Big East POY-caliber season. 

4. Florida

When the Gators’ frontcourt trio of Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Reuben Chinyelu decided to bypass the NBA Draft, that gave Florida a legitimate chance to repeat as national champs. Coach Todd Golden has firmly established himself as one of the true rising stars in the sport, and he will have much to work with in the backcourt in transfers Boogie Fland (Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (Princeton). 

5. Michigan

Dusty May made a very good impression during his first season in Ann Arbor, leading the Wolverines to a second-place finish in the Big Ten and a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, arguably the most prized player in the portal, made May sweat things out right up until the NBA Draft deadline, but Lendeborg turned down a chance to be a first-round pick to play for Michigan. May also signed Morez Johnson (Illinois), Elliot Cadeau (North Carolina) and Aday Mara (UCLA) out of the portal, all of whom should see big minutes.

6. Duke

Very few coaches are still relying heavily on high school recruits, but then again very few coaches are recruiting as well as Jon Scheyer. Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel may be gone, but the Boozer twins (Cam and Cayden) and French import Dame Sarr could very well help vault the Blue Devils back to the Final Four. Duke was also one of the few programs not to lose any players to the transfer portal, so look for sophomores Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba to make a significant jump.

7. UCLA

Mick Cronin has decided to stay away from high school recruiting in exchange for bringing in older transfers. We’ll see how well that strategy plays out after he signed Donovan Dent, the former New Mexico point guard and Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, and forwared Xavier Booker, who failed to live up to his high school hype during his two seasons at Michigan State. The Bruins also retained three starters who transferred in last year in Skyy Clark (Illinois) and Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State) and Eric Dailey (Oklahoma State). 

8. UConn

The Huskies had a bit of down year last season, but that’s inevitable when you’re coming off back-to-back NCAA championships. Dan Hurley has reloaded with a top-ranked three-man freshman class as well as a pair of big-time transfer guards in Silas Demary (Georgia) and Malachi Smith (Dayton). Senior forward Alex Karaban did not quite live up to the preseason hype last season, but if he can take another step forward he will team up with 6-foot-11 senior Tarris Reed to form one of the top frontcourt tandems in the country.

9. BYU

Heading into his second season in Provo, Kevin Young deployed his ample war chest to build a roster teeming with NBA talent. That begins, of course, with freshman phenom A.J. Dybantsa, who will glide alongside point guard Robert Wright, the $3.5 million transfer from Baylor. And yet, as far as college players go, the best on this roster this season could turn out to be Richie Saunders, the 6-foot-5 senior guard who averaged 16.5 points on 43.2 percent three-point shooting as a junior.

10. Louisville

Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer may be more heralded, but it’s possible that Cardinals point guard Mikel Brown will turn out to be the best freshman in the country. If that’s the case, Louisville will play deep into March because Pat Kelsey returns four starters from the squad that went 18-2 in the ACC. Brown’s arrival should open up lots of clean looks for Isaac McNeely, who was the league’s top three-point shooter (42.1 percent) last season at Virginia. Louisville will also benefit from a return to health for Kasean Pryor, the 6-foot-10 senior forward who suffered a season-ending knee injury at the Battle 4 Atlantis.

11. Kansas

At one point Bill Self reeled off 14 straight Big 12 regular season titles. Now it has been a whopping three years since the Jayhawks finished atop the league standings. They have a great chance to break that schneid thanks to the arrival of Peterson, the 6-foot-5 point guard from Canton, Ohio, who has a chance to be not only the best freshman in college basketball this season, but also the best player. Big seasons from Louisville transfer Tre White and sophomore forwward Flory Bidunga would also help make up for the loss of four starters.

12. Kentucky

Mark Pope brought in so many highly-rated transfers that a major off-season concern in Lexington has been whether he has too many good players. That’s a first-class problem, but it’s one Pope will take after losing four starters from the team that won 24 games and reached the Sweet Sixteen. Jaland Lowe (Pittsburgh) and Denzel Aberdeen (Florida) will likely comprise the starting backcourt, but much will hinge on how soon Arizona State transfer Jayden Quantaince, a 6-foot-9 sophomore forward who is a dominant post defender, can return after tearing his ACL in February.

13. Arizona

During a time when most power conferences are looking to get old and stay old, Tommy Lloyd has revamped Arizona by signing seven players straight outta high school. That’s a viable strategy as long as those players are good enough, and prospects like Koa Peat and Brayden Burries fit that bill. Lloyd will also rely on returnees Jaden Bradley, Anthony Dell’Orso and Tobe Awaka to improve on last year’s Sweet Sixteen finish. 

14. Tennessee

Rick Barnes may have his deepest team in Knoxville, thanks partly to the influx of transfers like Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Maryland) and Jaylen Carey (Vanderbilt). Barnes also signed a consensus top-five freshman in Nate Ament, a 6-foot-10 wing from Virginia. Those newcomers will help replenish a program that lost four starters from the team that lost to Houston in the Elite Eight. Will any of the newcomers turn out to be this season’s Dalton Knecht or Chaz Lanier?

15. Texas Tech

J.T. Toppin’s decision to turn down a near-certain fate as a first-round draft pick (thanks largely to NIL money ponied up by billionaire booster Cody Campbell) put the Red Raiders back in the chase for a Big 12 title. The 6-foot-9 junior forward will be a preaseason All-American candidate and the lone returning starter from last season’s Elite Eight squad. Grant McCasland brought in five transfers but he could use a big season from point guard Christian Anderson, who was a Big 12 All-Freshman selection last year.

16. Illinois

You’ve heard of the Fab Five? This team will be powered by the Balkan Five, a quintet of talented hoopsters who hail from Eastern Europe. The group includes a pair of big, highly-skilled twins in Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic, as well as Mihalio Petrovic, a dynamic 22-year-old point guard from Serbia. Their presence should help make up for losing a pair of first-round daft picks in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley), plus three other transfers from last season’s squad that lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. 

17. Arkansas

The Razorbacks’ surprising run to the Sweet Sixteen (which included an especially sugary second-round upset of St. John’s) made it easy to forget they were once 0-5 in the SEC. John Calipari did a remarkable job righting the ship, and he’ll have to offer another steady hand after losing three starters and two key reserves. He brought in a classic Coach Cal recruiting class headlined by a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans in guards Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas, but it’s the anticipated improvement of returnees like D.J. Wagner and Karter Knox that have Razorbacks fans really excited.

18. Iowa State

T.J. Otzelberger has done an amazing job building a winning culture during his four seasons in Ames. That should continue thanks to the return of the Cyclones’ four-man nucleus of Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momciolovic, Joshua Jefferson and Nate Heise. Ultimately, Iowa State’s fate will depend largely on how much production Otzelberger gets from his transfers. The class already took a hit when Mason Williams, a 6-foot-5 junior transfer from Eastern Washington, had season-ending hip surgery over the summer.

19. Michigan State

The Spartans would be worth watching if only to bear witness to another season of Coen Carr’s viral dunks. The 6-foot-6 junior forward is one of four core returnees from the squad that lost to Auburn in the Elite Eight. The key question will be who steps up as the team’s go-to scorer after it lost Jace Richardson, who was a surprising one-and-done player. Tom Izzo, who surpassed Bob Knight last season as the Big Ten’s all-time winningest coach, clearly has not lost his fast ball at the age of 70, but his five-man recruiting class (three transfers and two freshmen) does not appear to include any high-impact players.

20. Gonzaga

Gonzaga is being ranked under the assumption that Tyon Grant-Foster, the 25-year-old transfer from Grand Canyon, gets a waiver from the NCAA to compete this season. Grant-Foster played two years in junior college and this is his fourth Division I school. He has had multiple injuries and health issues and already has a waiver to practice. His availability is critical for a program that lost four starters and multiple transfers. Senior forward Graham Ike should be one of the top post scorers in the country.

21. San Diego State

The Aztecs were expecting big things last season from Reese Waters, but the sixth-year senior guard missed the entire season with a stress fracture in his right foot. Now he’s healthy and will join a roster that returns six of its top nine players. Junior wing Myles Byrd flirted with the NBA Draft but decided to come back, and 7-foot redshirt sophomore Magoon Gwath was the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year. This is SDSU’s final season in the Mountain West before it moves to the reinvented Pac-12 next season. 

22. North Carolina

This is a big season for Hubert Davis after the Tar Heels were the last team invited to the NCAA Tournament last season. Graduation and transfers shredded the roster, but Davis recruited one of the nation’s top freshmen in Caleb Wilson and brought in a top-tier transfer in Henri Veesaar, a 7-foot forward from Arizona. It will be interesting to see how senior guard Seth Trimble, the leading returning scorer, fares as the team’s primary offensive option.

23. Texas

Sean Miller has some nice pieces for his first season in Austin. That starts with the returning backcourt of Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark, as well as prized Glue Guy Chendall Weaver, a 6-foot-3 senior guard. Miller also added a five-man transfer class led by 6-foot-7 junior wing Cam Heide (Purdue) and 7-foot sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis (FAU).

24. Alabama

The Tide lost four starters from last season’s Elite Eight team, but Nate Oats has done well to maintain a competitive roster. That starts with the return of sophomore guard Labaron Philon, who waited until the very last minute to withdraw from the NBA Draft. He will be part of a formidable perimeter trio alongside Aden Holloway and Miami transfer Jalil Bethea. Nate Oats needs sophomore center Aiden Sherrell, a former McDonald’s All-American, to take a big leap.

25. Auburn

It won’t be easy for newly minted head coach Steven Pearl to lead this program forward after the Tigers lost their entire starting lineup from last season’s Final Four squad, but there is still enough talent on the roster to be competitive in the SEC. The players were allowed to transfer after Bruce Pearl announced his retirement, but all of them elected to stay. Most prominent among them is sophomore point guard Tahaad Pettiford, who previously tested the NBA Draft waters and elected to return. Along with the usual arrival of intriguing transfers (Johni Broome, anyone?) Auburn is also bringing in a strong five-man recruiting class that includes two of the top junior college prospects in Abdul Rashir and Emeka Opurum.