It has been an amazing start to the college basketball season, arguably the best I have seen in my three-plus decades covering this sport. Between the quality of play, the prestige of the matchups and the electricity of the environments, most every night has given us reason to be excited about the state of the game.
That will be exponentially more true this week during Feast Week. I am guessing there will be a whole lotta shakin’ going on in my AP Top 25 ballot seven days hence. What makes this week’s exercise so palatable is that we have yet another interesting debate over who should be No. 1. Let’s embrace debate!
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the Top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed Sunday night to the Associated Press. The numbers in parentheses reflect where the team was on last week’s ballot. The other three numbers are that team’s rankings in KenPom, BartTorvik (sorted to include this season’s games only) and Wins Above Bubble.
DROPPED OUT: Texas Tech (18), San Diego State (24)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Auburn (22-24-75), Wisconsin (23-51-81), USC (26-41-32), NC State (19-23-33), Georgetown (75-67-10), Nebraska (40-32-5), Baylor (21-66-38), Clemson (29-26-65)
NOTES ON THE VOTES
• After Arizona won at UConn 71-67 on Wednesday night, many of my media colleagues took to social media to argue that the Wildcats should be ranked No. 1. And there’s a case to be made given that they have defeated the teams ranked No. 3 (UConn), 10 (Florida) and 19 (UCLA) on my ballot this week, none of which came at home.
As you can see, not only did I not put Arizona No. 1, but I’ve got the Wildcats at No. 4 behind three teams whom they were ranked behind the last three weeks.
A voter’s criteria is subjective, but here is my thinking. First of all, I have long distinguished between my Top-25 ballot and a projected NCAA Tournament bracket. It’s quite possible that if the tourney were going to be selected today, Arizona would be the No. 1 overall seed. But that’s not what I’m trying to do here. I certainly consider overall resume when I do my rankings, but I also build in plenty of recency bias as well. You’ll see that become even more relevant late in the season. Some other voters see it otherwise, and that’s okay, too. It’s just not my bag.
Second, believe it or not, I actually do put a lot of time and thought into my ballots. I voted Purdue No. 1 in the preseason, and while the Boilermakers have looked a little wobbly at times, they are still undefeated. It’s not unprecedented for a team to be moved off the top spot without losing, but in my opinion it should be rare.
Finally, Purdue has a very strong case of its own to be No. 1. In the first place, the Boilermakers have arguably the best win of the season at Alabama, who in turn further validated that by beating Illinois in Chicago last week. Purdue also totally embarrassed my then-No. 18 team Texas Tech by 30 (!!!!) points in The Bahamas. I don’t mean to take away what Arizona has accomplished, but Florida has not exactly looked dominant (the Gators were fortunate to beat Florida State at home), UCLA is just okay (look at those metrics — yuck), and UConn was playing without two starters and still had a chance to win the game.
Like I said, where you stand depends on where you sit, but this one was an easy choice for me. Until someone knocks off Purdue, the Boilermakers will almost certainly remain my No. 1-ranked team.
• Just as Alabama made Purdue’s win even better by beating Illinois, Purdue’s disembowelment of the Red Raiders strengthened the Tide’s case to be top-five. It’s also worth noting that Alabama did not have sophomore forward Keitenn Bristow against the Boilermakers due to an ankle injury. That’s a huge reason why Bama got dominated on the boards. Bristow made his season debut against Illinois and had 10 points and 8 rebounds in 20 minutes during Alabama’s 90-86 win. The Tide will be in Vegas this week and will have one of the Players Era’s marquee games Monday night against Gonzaga.
• The Zags, you’ll notice, have the best metric profile of any team in the country besides Duke. But they have yet to face a top-50 KenPom team, so I couldn’t move them higher than No. 8. Keep your eye on their dynamic freshman point guard Mario Saint-Supery from Spain. Mark Few inserted him into the starting lineup for last Monday’s win over Southern Utah.
• Louisville had a sneaky good quasi-road win over a good Cincinnati team at Heritage Bank Center in Cincinnati. The Cardinals also aren’t in an MTE this week but have a brutal gauntlet coming up against Arkansas, Indiana, Memphis and Tennessee.
• Michigan State moved up eight spots following its win over Kentucky at the Champions Classic. I thought I might move the Wildcats down further (that WAB ranking is a canary in the coal mine), but I didn’t have as much room as I expected. Kentucky is not in a tournament this week but it does play North Carolina at home and Gonzaga in Nashville during the first week of December.
• It’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but if a team is ranked higher than another in all three metrics, it’s probably going to be reflected on my ballot. That’s why St. John’s dropped a few spots. The Red Storm haven’t beaten a KenPom top-150 team yet, but they’ll have their chances in Las Vegas, where they open up against Iowa State and Baylor. They also play Kentucky in Atlanta on Dec. 20.
• Kansas is a tricky team to rank because it lost to Duke without star freshman point guard Darryn Peterson, who will be out again this week due to a hamstring injury. I thought the Jayhawks acquitted themselves well against the Blue Devils. Peterson should be back relatively soon, so if the Jayhawks drop a game or two without him in Vegas, I don’t expect them to fall too far on my ballot.
• I usually don’t drop a team for losing to my No. 1, but between the Red Raiders’ performance against Purdue, their one-point escape over Wake Forest the night before, and their plummeting metrics, I figured I needed to put this team in time out. The Red Raiders don’t play another ranked team until they face Arkansas on Dec. 13 in Dallas. They also have a huge date with Duke on Dec. 20 in Madison Square Garden.
• San Diego State also dropped out following its double overtime home loss to Troy on Tuesday. The Aztecs’ 7-foot sophomore center Magoon Gwath made his season debut after missing the first two games because he was still recovering from knee surgery last April. Gwath had 20 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals, but it wasn’t enough. San Diego State will need to play much better this week at the Players Era, where it opens with Michigan and Oregon.
• Wisconsin was creeping its way into the Top 25 and would have gotten there if it could have knocked off BYU in Salt Lake City, or at least been competitive. Instead, the Badgers got dominated, 98-70. They will play Providence on Thursday and then TCU or Florida in a two-day tournament in San Diego.
• With Texas Tech and San Diego State gone, I had two spots to give. I went with a combination of metrics and sentimentality and installed mid-majors Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara. The Gaels have long been a top program, but this could be Herb Sendek’s best team during his 10-year tenure with the Broncos.
• Arkansas came very close to falling off my ballot after barely squeaking by Winthrop at home. The Razorbacks’ metrics are a flashing red warning sign. We’ll see how they do on Thanksgiving when they face Duke in Chicago.
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