This is the first weekday version of my picks against the spread and that’s because we have a schedule that warrants it. If you thought the temperature around college hoops would cool off just because the Thanksgiving week tournaments are over, get ready to feel some more heat. I’ve been on a heater myself of late and I fully intend to keep it going. So here are my picks against the spread for the night’s best games. Stay toasty, my friends.
Baylor at UConn
Seth’s Analysis
It’s ridiculous that UConn was ranked No. 25 in this week’s AP poll despite going 0-3 at the Maui Invitational. I left the Huskies off my ballot and my fellow voters should have done the same. All five of UConn’s wins have come against teams ranked No. 311 and below on KenPom. Given that UConn’s leading scorer, 6-foot-8 junior forward Alex Karaban, will miss this game as he recovers from a concussion, it might come as a surprise that the Huskies are favored. But it makes sense to me. They are playing at home and they’ve had a few days for Dan Hurley and his staff to figure out a way to improve that woeful defense. And besides, Baylor hardly looks like a world beater. The Bears lost to Gonzaga and Tennessee by a total of 53 points and their best wins were over St. John’s (in double overtime) and against a pretty mediocre Arkansas team by five. I like the Huskies to bounce back.
Alabama at North Carolina
Seth’s Analysis
The Crimson Tide got the news on Monday they had feared but knew was coming: Senior guard Latrell Wrightsell will miss the rest of the season due to an Achilles injury he suffered during Saturday’s loss to Oregon. Wrightsell was the Crimson Tide’s third-leading scorer and best three-point shooter, not to mention one of its most experienced players. That will put additional pressure on 6-foot-4 freshman guard Labaron Philon to be more productive than he was in Las Vegas. North Carolina has been struggling with a lack of inside presence. Yes, the Tar Heels miss Armando Bacot, but I think they are missing Harrison Ingram even more, specifically his presence on the boards. Offensive rebounding used to be a staple of this program but this team ranks No. 279 on KenPom in offensive rebound percentage. Alabama has an elite rebounder in Mouhamed Dioubate, but aside from him the Tide is not the type to pound the paint. They’re also 51st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Alabama is the better team but it’s hard to pick against North Carolina in a big game at home, especially with a spread this small.
Marquette at Iowa State
Seth’s Analysis
These are two of the best defensive teams in the country, but the difference is that Marquette relies on creating steals. The Golden Eagles lead the nation in steals percentage, per KenPom. Iowa State, however, ranks fifth nationally in turnover percentage and has one of the most dependable perimeter trios in 6-foot-1 junior Tamin Lipsey, 6-foot-4 senior Curtis Jones and 6-foot-4 senior Keshon Gilbert. The Cyclones were within a whisker of knocking off Auburn in Maui, but they frittered away an 18-point lead and lost by two. As good as Marquette is, that’s a worst-case scenario. Iowa State proved how good it can be but couldn’t quite pull off the win. The Cyclones are not going to to let the same opportunity pass again, especially in Hilton Coliseum.
Kansas at Creighton
Seth’s Analysis
Creighton is one banged up basketball team. Between Stephen Ashworth’s ankle, Ryan Kalkbrenner’s lower body injury and Pop Isaacs’ flu bug – that’s their top three scorers, by the way – it’s a wonder Greg McDermott can even field a team. My guess is Ashworth and Isaacs will be ready to go, but Kalkbrenner is officially listed as a game-time decision. It’s hard to imagine him missing the chance to go up against Hunter Dickinson. The Jayhawks manged to knock off Duke even though Dickinson missed the last 10 minutes of the game following his ejection. They won because 6-foot-9 freshman forward Flory Bidunga did outstanding job replacing Dickinson down low (on both ends) and because 6-foot-7 senior forward K.J. Adams might be pound for pound the best defender in the country. No doubt the CHI Health Center will be packed and pitched for one of the biggest home games they’ve ever had there, but for the Jayhawks, that’s just another Wednesday on the job. I think Bill Self’s guys will be able to handle it.
Auburn at Duke
Seth’s Analysis
Should we believe Duke is really that good because their only losses to Kansas and Kentucky came down to the final possessions? Or have we learned that the Blue Devils are truly vulnerable because they’re unable to close out big games? Both can be true, but we’ll get another data point as the second-ranked Tigers roll into Cameron Indoor Stadium. Senior forward Johni Broome (20.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists per game) is the clear front runner for national player of the year. He’ll be the primary target for a Blue Devils squad that ranks No. 1 on KenPom in height and adjusted defensive efficiency. I voted the Tigers No. 1 in my Top 25 this week, but let’s also remember that they needed to come back from 18 points down to beat Iowa State by a bucket in Maui and their semi-road win at Houston on Nov. 9 looks a little worse after the Cougars lost to Alabama and San Diego State in Las Vegas last week. These are two really good teams, but the Blue Devils are at home and they have a lot to prove.
Seth’s Stats:
Last week: 3-2
Season: 13-6-1
