We are just a few days from Selection Sunday. Some mid-majors have made their case for a tournament bid. Others have one last chance this week to prove they belong.
One of the great things about March Madness is that we can always count on some unknown school to bust our brackets and win our hearts. With that in mind, here is the final edition of Cinderella Watch. Which teams and players just might become famous next week?
TOP FIVE
1. Saint Mary’s (Last Week: 1)
After winning four of the last five games against Gonzaga, the Gaels had their worst offensive game of the season in a 58-51 loss to their rivals in the conference championship game. They finished 0-16 from distance, a frightening sign with the tournament upcoming. However, while this will likely hurt their seeding, Saint Mary’s remains in the top spot of the rankings. They will almost surely have the highest seed of any other team on this list, and were the only team ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 this week.
Hoops HQ’s Brad Wachtel had the Gaels as a No. 5 seed in his latest projections, which is where they have been seeded the last three seasons. They will likely fall to a six seed after the Gonzaga loss.
Coach Randy Bennett will have to regroup quickly, as an early exit from the NCAA Tournament would be a major disappointment with the season that the Gaels put together. Saint Mary’s finished 17-1 in the West Coast Conference regular season, its best conference mark in program history. They have six players averaging more than eight points per game and finished the season winning 18 of their last 20 games. But Tuesday’s performance was not promising.
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2. New Mexico (Last Week: 3rd)
After consecutive losses at the end of February, the Lobos finished the regular season with three consecutive victories. They followed up an impressive road victory over Nevada with an 81-67 win over UNLV on Friday, sealing their first outright Mountain West regular-season title since 2013. Nelly Junior Joseph, a 6-foot-10 senior center, was dominant in the paint, notching a double-double with 26 points and 16 rebounds. If Junior Joseph can be a consistent secondary option behind 6-foot-2 junior guard Donovan Dent, the Lobos become a far more dangerous team.
New Mexico remains on the No. 9 seed line in Wachtel’s projections alongside conference foe Utah State. Their Mountain West Tournament run begins Thursday night in the quarterfinal, and a win means a matchup against a desperate San Diego State or Boise State would await in the semis.
3. VCU (Last Week: 2nd)
Just when it looked as if Ryan Odom’s group was ready to lock up an at-large bid, it suffered a crushing 79-76 loss to Dayton in their regular-season finale Friday. It was their first loss at the Siegel Center this season after winning 15 in a row at home. The Flyers nearly blew a six-point lead with 23 seconds, but 6-foot-5 senior guard Max Shulga’s potential tying three at the buzzer hit back rim.
Last year, VCU went on a remarkable run to the A-10 title game before losing to Duquesne. This season, the circumstances are different but the stakes may be the same. The Rams are the clear favorites to win the A-10 Tournament as the No. 1 seed this time around, but they may have to win all three games in Brooklyn to make the Big Dance.
An at-large bid remains a possibility. The Rams are 25-6 and are 29th in theNET. They have lost just twice in 2025, winning 15 of their past 17. A loss before the conference tourney title game would make for a stressful Selection Sunday in Richmond.
Odom was the coach of UMBC when it pulled off its stunning upset of No. 1 seed Virginia in 2018. Does he have more March Magic in the next two weeks?
4. UC San Diego (Last Week: 4th)
UC San Diego avoided a disastrous loss in its final two regular-season games, holding on for a 70-63 home win over Long Beach State and earning a dominant road win over UC Davis on Saturday.
If the Tritons (28-4) do fall short in their conference tournament, they would be looking to become the first Big West team to earn an at-large bid since 2005. (This is the first season the program is eligible for postseason play in Division I.) The Tritons hold a respectable NET ranking of 35th, ahead of New Mexico and Utah State. UC San Diego has won 11 of its past 12 games by double-digits and hasn’t lost since mid-January.
As the No. 1 seed in the Big West Tournament, the Tritons get a pass to the semifinals Friday. They rely on a frenetic defense that leads the country in turnover margin (+7.5) and forces 16.2 turnovers a game. They allow just 62.0 points per game, eighth-best in the nation.
5. Drake (Last Week: Unranked)
While some wins had been unconvincing recently, the Bulldogs left no doubt in their 63-48 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship game victory over Bradley. Drake has won 18 of its past 19. The defense that allows just 58.4 points per game, the second-best scoring unit in the nation, held the Braves to just two points in the first 8:41 of the second half.
The conference title is their third in a row and by far the most impressive. Ben McCollum, who won four national championships at D-II Northwest Missouri State, has translated his success right away to the mid-major level. He brought Bennett Stirtz with him, a 6-foot-4 junior who has been one of the best players in the country this season. Stirtz is only the second player in conference history to record at least 600 points, 180 assists and 70 steals, joining Larry Bird. That’s impressive company.
Drake is the type of team that could make life miserable and ugly for a high-scoring power-conference team. The matchup will be crucial in determining their potential for a Cinderella run.
RISING
1. High Point
The 28-5 Panthers were in serious trouble in the Big South Conference Tournament title game Sunday, trailing 48-33 with 15 minutes to go. They proceeded to outscore Winthrop 48-21 the rest of the way, earning their first-ever tournament bid after falling short as the Big South’s No. 1 seed last season. Look out for High Point next week.
2. Colorado State
As other Mountain West teams get more attention, the Rams have won eight of their past nine games, including victories over San Diego State, Utah State and, most recently, Boise State on the road Saturday. Colorado State is the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West Tournament and is a serious candidate to run the table and earn an automatic bid.
3. Dayton
The Flyers took down VCU on Friday in a building where the Rams hadn’t lost since last March, earning their fourth straight win heading into the A-10 Tournament and receiving some at-large attention. With momentum on its side, Dayton feels like a serious candidate to be a bid thief. And the Flyers did beat UConn earlier this year.
FALLING
1. Boise State
After winning four in a row and putting themselves in great position, the Broncos could not hold a double-digit second-half lead against Colorado State at home. They now are on the outside of the tournament picture and need a deep conference tournament run to have any at-large chance.
2. San Diego State
A trip to UNLV on the final day of the regular season felt like a trap game, and it proved to be just that for the Aztecs. Now a toss-up for an at-large bid, a possible March Madness play-in game awaits Thursday against Boise State in the Mountain West Tournament.
3. Jacksonville State
After being the Conference USA frontrunners for much of the season, a home loss to Kennesaw State on Saturday doomed their regular-season title hopes. Now they face a more difficult path to the automatic bid this week.
THIS YEAR’S JACK GOHLKE
1. Donovan Dent, 6-foot-2 junior guard, New Mexico
Dent is an electrifying three-level scorer; he’s averaging 20.4 points per game and will be making his second consecutive tournament appearance. His array of moves around the basket make him nearly impossible to guard, and he shoots nearly 50 percent from the field as the primary playmaker.
2. John Poulakidas, 6-foot-6 senior guard, Yale
Poulakidas lit up Auburn for 28 points in the NCAA Tournament last season, and he’s a much better player this season. He is averaging 19.3 per game, up from 13.4 last year, and makes over three triples a night at a 40.5 percent clip.
3. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, 6-foot-6 senior guard, UC San Diego
The New Zealander has been at the center of the Tritons’ rise in their introduction to D-1 tournament eligibility. He’s 26th nationally in scoring (19.7 points per game) while shooting 58.0 percent from the field.
4. Jacob Ognacevic, 6-foot-8 senior forward, Lipscomb
Ognacevic just helped the Bison punch their ticket to the Big Dance on Sunday. He has been a prolific scorer with tremendous efficiency, averaging 20.1 points per game (18th in D-1), while shooting 41.2 percent from three and grabbing 8.1 boards per game.
5. Bennett Stirtz, 6-foot-4 junior guard, Drake
Stirtz followed Ben McCollum from D-II Northwest Missouri St and he has helped his coach look like an absolute genius, hitting five triples in the MVC title game. He’s done it all for the 30-3 Bulldogs, scoring 19.1 points per game, dishing out 5.7 assists and grabbing 4.4 rebounds.
