For the next six weeks — the three leading up to Selection Sunday and the three that comprise the NCAA Tournament — Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland and others can determine their March Madness destiny.
But, for one minute, let’s not focus on them. Instead, adjust your eyes downward and check out the logjam at the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
Washington, Penn State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers, USC and Nebraska are dealing with way more pressure than the teams listed above. With the new 15-team Big Ten tournament format forcing the bottom three finishers to stay home—killing those teams’ NCAA dreams once and for all—the second-division squads have been in fight-or-flight mode for weeks.
When fans wonder how short-handed Northwestern could possibly go on the road and smack Ohio State by 21 points…or how Minnesota pulled off improbable rallies to win at USC and UCLA for its first back-to-back road wins since 2021…or how Penn State suddenly shed a six-game losing streak by crushing Nebraska by 17 and then rallying to pound the Gophers on the road, realize that these guys are consumed by the idea of leaving it all on the court before the court gets taken away from them.
“For a stretch, I just thought we were playing with so much pressure on us,” Penn State coach Mike Rhoades said after Wednesday’s 89-72 over Nebraska. “You could see it when it doesn’t go well. And you’ve got to work through that. And some guys are better than others with it. They think their (reason for) being in life is being a basketball player. And when it’s not going well, ‘I’m a failure. I’m not doing it right.’ And it’s harder. It gets harder.”
To get a player’s perspective, Hoops HQ checked in with Iowa senior forward Payton Sandfort. He’s been riding a roller-coaster all season, but particularly of late. On Feb. 12 at Rutgers, the Hawkeyes erased a nine-point halftime deficit and won 84-73. They felt so good about their first road win this season, coach Fran McCaffery teared up during his Big Ten Network postgame interview.
Exactly one week later, Sandfort collapsed to the Carver-Hawkeye floor in dismay when Oregon’s Nate Bittle blocked Josh Dix’s game-winning three-point attempt at the buzzer. Then, when last-place Washington visited Iowa Saturday, Sandfort and company trailed most of the night before rallying for an 85-79 win. Had the Hawks not come through, they would have been locked in a three-way tie with Washington and Northwestern for 15th, 16th and 17th. Oh, and the Huskies would have owned the tiebreaker for the 15th and final spot heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
“There’s definitely a pressure to make the Big Ten Tournament, which there hasn’t been before,” Sandfort said. “That’s what makes games like (Saturday) so important. We’re still really good teams and they’re all-out wars and we’re still fighting for something big. There’s a lot of intensity and pressure in those games for sure.”
The 6-foot-7 Sandfort, it should be remembered, could have left Iowa last year. He was pegged as an early second-round NBA pick for his shooting prowess (league-high 94 threes and 37.9 percent success rate) and his quick release. But he hungered for team success and a chance at a third NCAA Tournament.
“It’s been tough,” Sandfort said. “I just really want to win and I’ve poured my heart and soul into it. I feel really rewarded when it works out and kind of defeated when it doesn’t.”
Iowa (15-12, 6-10 Big Ten) stands one game above the Big Ten Tournament cut line. But the Hawkeyes have a tough final stretch: Trips to Illinois, Northwestern and Nebraska along with an emotional Senior Night against Michigan State.
“We’ve had a lot of tough bounces this year,” Sandfort said. “The only thing you can do is keep fighting. It sucks not to be rewarded, but we think if we just keep fighting, maybe the bounces will start going our way and we can go on a run in the Big Ten tournament or down the stretch.”
Oregon Puts The “O” In Old
When you Google the phrase “get old, stay old,” the first non-AI hit is a story about Wisconsin hoops. If head coach Greg Gard had a nickel for each time he has uttered the phrase over the years, he’d have enough coins to fill the Kohl Center.
In addition to the Badgers’ remarkable changes to their offensive style, which Hoops HQ chronicled last month, being old is yet again one of their superpowers.
Wisconsin has devoted 50.6 percent of its minutes to its four fifth- and sixth-year seniors: All-America candidate John Tonje, Steven Crowl, Max Klesmit and Carter Gilmore. Throw in the minutes for “normal” seniors Kamari McGee and Marcus Ilver and the Badgers’ seniors are handling 61.2 percent of their minutes.
But guess what happened when Wisconsin ran into a team devoting more minutes to super seniors? Oregon came to the Kohl Center Saturday, fought back from a 17-point deficit and earned a 77-73 overtime win that gave the Ducks their Big Ten-best ninth Quad 1 victory.
Auburn is the only school in the country with more Quad 1 wins, while Tennessee and Alabama (which Oregon defeated in November) also have nine.
Oregon’s nine-man rotation features four-year senior Nate Bittle and six guys who’ve been in school for at least five years: TJ Bamba, Keeshawn Barthelemy, Brandon Angel, Jadrian Tracey, Supreme Cook and Ra’Heim Moss.
These fifth- and sixth-year seniors are soaking up 59.8 percent of the Ducks’ minutes—the most in the Big Ten—and their seniors overall are playing 73.2 percent of the team’s minutes. Only Minnesota (79.7 percent) ranks higher.
Not only did the Ducks match the Badgers in terms of experience, their best players turned out to be a good match for Wisconsin. Bamba is a shutdown wing who equals Tonje’s size and athleticism. While the Big Ten’s scoring leader posted 22 points against Oregon, more than half came either in transition or with Bamba on the bench in foul trouble. Down the stretch, though, Bamba harassed Tonje into two tough three-point tries that weren’t close. He finished 9 of 20 from the floor.
Around the Rim
• Indiana coach Mike Woodson trotted out a secret weapon for Sunday’s home game versus Purdue: He sat in the red chair that Bob Knight flung across the Assembly Hall floor 40 years ago to the day—also during a heated Indiana-Purdue game.
Woodson, who had a massive cushion placed on the chair’s unforgiving plastic seat, declared after the game that he possesses documentation that it’s the real chair. “I wasn’t going to throw the chair, but I did want to sit in it,” Woodson said.
More important to the Hoosiers, they played as if they had been motivated by Knight. Trailing by 12 at halftime, Indiana opened the second half with an absurd 28-3 run that turned into a 73-58 victory. Woodson let his perimeter guys—Trey Galloway, Myles Rice, Anthony Leal and Luke Goode —play all 20 second-half minutes. “I kind of rolled (with) the seniors,” Woodson said. “Tonight they refused to lose.”
The Hoosiers improved to 4-11 in Quad 1 games, which might be enough to be on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. An equally big story? Purdue’s on its first four-game losing streak since the same time of year in 2020.
Point guard Braden Smith entered the day as KenPom’s No. 3 choice for national Player of the Year (behind Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Auburn’s Johni Broome), but the Hoosiers limited him to one point and one assist after halftime while forcing him into five turnovers. Rice hounded Smith everywhere with frequent aid from Leal and Galloway.
“I thought Myles’ defense tonight was the best he’s played since he’s been here,” Woodson said. “You can’t just play (Smith) with one guy. He’s really that good.”
If there’s any doubt how important Smith is to the Boilers, check out the difference in his stats between wins and losses.
In Purdue’s 19 wins: 36.7 minutes per game, 47.8 FG%, 3.3 free-throw attempts per game, 9.3 assists per game, 2.8 turnovers per game, 2.8 steals per game, 17.6 points per game.
In Purdue’s nine losses: 36.0 mpg, 36.4 FG%, 1.3 FTA, 7.3 apg, 3.3 tpg, 1.2 spg, 11.9 ppg.
• So much good happened to Michigan State in the last week—a nine-point home win over Purdue and a 13-point road win over Michigan—that it seems like forever since Tom Izzo set the Big Ten record with his 354th conference win Feb. 15 at Illinois.
Bob Knight, who’s now second with 353 wins, broke Piggy Lambert’s record of 228 during the 1988-89 season, so he owned the mark for 36 years.
Curious how long the 70-year-old Izzo might keep the record? It might not be nearly as long as Knight. Purdue’s Matt Painter, who turns 55 in August, owns 235 Big Ten wins. He has averaged roughly 12 conference wins during his 20-year run in West Lafayette, Ind.
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If Izzo quit tomorrow, which ain’t gonna happen per Seth Davis’ recent Hoops HQ exclusive interview, Painter would need roughly 10 years to catch Izzo.
How about a new guy like Ohio State’s Jake Diebler? The 38-year-old took over last February and has 12 Big Ten wins. If Izzo quit before next season, Diebler would need to average roughly 12 conference wins until 2053-54 to catch him.
• Izzo was one of four Big Ten coaches named Friday to the 15-man Naismith Coach of the Year watch list. Painter, Michigan’s Dusty May and Wisconsin’s Greg Gard also made the cut.
Coincidentally, a few hours after Naismith announced its list, Michigan announced a contract extension for May that runs through 2030. The Detroit Free Press reported that May’s annual salary jumps from $3.75 million to $4.65 million. The new deal also snuffs out any lingering speculation that May might want to be Woodson’s successor at Indiana.
• For years, Illinois coach Brad Underwood has operated under the impression that three is more than two. But he’s slowly but surely realizing that two is more than zero.
During Illinois’ 110-67 defeat to No. 3 Duke Saturday night, which became the biggest loss in the program’s 120-year history, the Illini missed their first 17 3-pointers and finished 2 of 26 for the game. It was not a new phenomenon for Underwood’s bunch.
During their last 13 games, in which they went 5-8, the Illini have canned 97 of 371 3-pointers. That’s a 26.1 percent success rate, which has dragged them down to 30.5 percent for the year. So why does Illinois still rank among the nation’s top 10 in 3-point attempts with 30.1 per game?
“We light it up in practice,” Underwood said. “I am the biggest pro-three-point guy in America. Probably me and (Alabama’s) Nate Oats. Shoot ’em. But we make ’em (in practice). And I just keep waiting … but I’m at the farthest reaches of my wit. I never expected that. I thought we’d be a mid-to-high 30s team. I still believe in these guys, but we’ve got to find a way.”
Games to Watch
Feb. 26: Michigan State at Maryland (6:30 p.m. ET, BTN): The Terrapins boast the Big Ten’s best starting five, but the Spartans boast the league’s best 10-man rotation. That makes for a compelling showdown that will help determine the regular-season champ. Maryland has a great home-court advantage—its only home loss was Nov. 15 to Marquette—but Michigan hadn’t lost at home until Michigan State showed up Friday night.
March 2: Wisconsin at Michigan State (1:30 p.m. ET, CBS): This one would be bigger if the Badgers hadn’t blown their 17-point lead Saturday against Oregon, but it’s still crucial for both teams. The Badgers struggled against Oregon’s full-court pressure, so it’ll be interesting to see how much pressure Tom Izzo applies to John Blackwell and Max Klesmit. Bonus angle: Is MSU’s Coen Carr the right-sized athlete to slow down John Tonje?
March 5: Maryland at Michigan (6:30 p.m. ET; BTN): This is the matchup everyone has been waiting for: Michigan’s Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin versus Maryland’s Derik Queen and Julian Reese. While Wolf has earned all his plaudits as a playmaker, Queen boasts a great handle and nice passing skills as well. Bonus showdown: Point guards Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Tre Donaldson are sneaky killers, particularly down the stretch of a game.
March 9: Michigan at Michigan State (Noon ET; CBS): The Wolverines are the only Big Ten team playing five games in the final 14 days of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Spartans will enter this one with one fewer day of rest than U-M. But don’t worry: Both sides will empty the tank, especially if the regular-season crown is on the line. The Spartans’ guards outplayed the Wolverines in MSU’s 75-62 win Feb. 21 in Ann Arbor. Will that happen again in this one? Bonus for bettors: Since 2000, Michigan and MSU have closed the regular season six times. Each time, the home team has won (MSU 5-1).
• Maybe Michigan didn’t get a win Friday night against Michigan State, but Wolverines center Vlad Goldin sure did:
Congratulations to Vlad and Camryn. When you set the date, send an invite to Hoops HQ. We’ll politely decline to attend your wedding, but we’ll still get you a gift.
