Feast Week is behind us, and believe it or not, a sprinkling of major conference rivalry games are just ahead.
There are few things we enjoy handicapping more at wannabetwithus.com than conference basketball. There is so much data available when we get to that stage and so many common opponents and historical trends to draw from. And it’s actually here, now. Kinda. We’ve got a legit Big Ten game this week, which means we are nearing the meat and potatoes of gambling season.
The Monday slate didn’t do much for us, but we’ve got a play a day for you after that to get us to next weekend, when we will, as always, take a deeper dive into the Saturday and Sunday slate.
Tuesday: Iowa at Michigan State – Under
Here it is, in all of its glory. The Hawkeyes at Sparty. BIG TEN HOOPS! And there is nothing we’ve seen at all from Tom Izzo’s bunch that has us wavering on how we almost blindly bet Michigan State: How low can you go? Unless they set this well under 140, we are diving in right away. These two teams have both allowed under 63 points per game this season. Sparty is 5-2 to the under and get everyone to play at their pace at home. The last three meetings between these teams at East Lansing have produced 150, 124 and 146 points. Iowa has been an over team this season, but tends to shoot far less efficiently away from their barn, and they haven’t faced a rebounding force like this yet. Sparty is 26-12 to the under at home since the start of the 2023-24 season and 45-24 to the under in that span when getting two-to-four days off between games. Yeah, we’re in on the under.
Wednesday: Marshall at UNC Wilmington – UNCW to cover
The Seahawks look like the best team in the CAA and it might not be all that close. They have fortified their bench and they are mauling people on the boards and in the paint with their array of 6-foot-10 kids and a backcourt that boasts ample size, too. Vegas has yet to adjust. We capped them as 25.5-point favorites over Gardner Webb on Saturday and featured the game on “Wanna Bet?” The spread was 19.5. They won by 26. The Seahawks are now 19-10 as a home favorite since the start of the 2023 season, and seven of their eight wins thus far are of the blowout variety. UNCW has covered five straight; four of them by multiple possessions. As for Marshall, the Herd is 6-13-1 ATS as a road dog since 2023 and 12-17-1 ATS in that span out of conference. Seahawks should flirt with 90 points again here.
Thursday: The Citadel at Davidson – Davidson to cover
Not sure how many points it would take to get us not to fade The Citadel on an opening line, but it’s a friggin’ lot. Peep their KenPom profile – bottom 275 or worse in pretty much any metric you choose. They are getting way too much time off between games and seem to be constantly struggling for consistency. They are 0-5 ATS this season and 3-9 ATS out of conference since the start of 2024-25 and 8-20 ATS as a dog in that span. Western Georgia just became the latest outfit to hang 100 on them. Davidson is 4-2 ATS to start the season and is way too efficient for The Citadel to be able to keep this remotely close.
Bubble Watch: Miami Makes Its Return To The Field
Welcome to Bubble Watch, where we monitor who’s on the guest list and who’s on the curb ahead of the NCAA Tournament
Friday: NJIT at High Point – High Point team total over
This spread will probably be pretty ridiculous and understandably so. High Point cracked 90 points again over the weekend and covered an 18.5-point spread with ease. They aren’t playing at the break-neck pace of some years past, but they are lighting up the scoreboard anyway. The Panthers are averaging 94 points per game and shooting 53 percent from the floor and averaging 18 assists and 13 steals a game. NJIT has allowed 86-plus in three of its last four games. The Highlanders are averaging 63 a game and giving up 79. Maybe you just want to play the over, but we will be projecting High Point to score 95-plus here and doubt the total opens that high.
Saturday: Boise State at Butler – Butler to cover
We loved backing the Bulldogs against some larger opponents like Virginia and South Carolina, and that worked out just fine for us — on the moneyline, no less. Michael Ajayi is beasting out for Butler and he will be able to have his way with Boise State. Butler has home wins of 25, 32, 32 and 30 points already this season. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS, covering every game by at least 3.5 points and covering six of them by 5.5 points or more. Incredibly impressive. Boise State is 8-11 ATS out of conference since the start of the 2023-24 season, losing on average by 10.6 points. Could see them losing by twice as much in a very tough spot here.
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