Yesterday’s schedule was highlighted by the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden, but we’ve got another strong slate of games coming your way tonight. Are you ready to cash in?
The biggest games tonight are taking place in Storrs and Chicago. There will be more to come over the next few days as we crest our way into Thanksgiving week. Here are my picks against the spread for the top five games.
Middle Tennessee at Michigan
Seth’s Analysis
Michigan is off to a 3-0 start, but the Wolverines haven’t looked the part of a Final Four contender. They shot 4 for 25 from three and needed overtime to beat Wake Forest at home by a point. Last Friday, they committed 22 turnovers in a four-point win at TCU. Some of that is to be expected for a program that has once again brought in a lot of new players, most notably Yaxel Leneborg, the 6-foot-9 senior transfer from UAB who is averaging just 11.7 points. Middle Tennessee will have a hard time matching Michigan’s size, but the Blue Raiders will not be a pushover. They are also 3-0 and ranked No. 146 on KenPom. Five players are averaging double figure scoring, led by 6-foot-8 senior forward Kamari Lands’ career-best 17.7 points per game. Michigan should win, but this is too big of a spread given the way this team has played in the early going, especially since KenPom has Michigan favored by 21.
Arizona at UConn
Seth’s Analysis
To have a game of this caliber taking place inside a bandbox campus gym like Gampel Pavilion is a blessing beyond words. These teams have already played a tough schedule and come through unscathed. Arizona knocked off defending champ Florida in the opener in Las Vegas, and last Friday they squeaked by No. 19 UCLA in a quasi-road game in Inglewood. Wildcats freshman Koa Peat has garnered most of the early publicity on this team, but he only had seven points in the win over the Bruins while 6-foot-6 senior guard Anthony Dell’Orso (20 points off the bench) and 6-foot-3 senior point guard Jaden Bradley (15) led the way. UConn built up a 20-point second-half lead over BYU on Saturday in Boston before holding off A.J. Dybantsa’s scoring explosion to survive, 86-84. The Huskies are getting a terrific boost from Georgia transfer Silas Demary, the 6-foot-4 junior guard who had 21 points, 7 assists and 1 turnover in the win. Freshman guard Braylon Mullins is still out for UConn with an ankle injury, which means that Dan Hurley’s top seven players are all juniors and seniors. Their maturity plus the pitched homecourt environment should be a sufficient combination to cover the spread.
Dayton at Marquette
Seth’s Analysis
This is not an easy time at Marquette, which has lost two of its last three games, including Saturday at home to a rebuilding Maryland squad despite a career-high 31 points from 6-foot-5 senior guard Chase Ross. Yes, the Golden Eagles have played the last two games without Sean Jones due to a shoulder injury, but the Terrapins played the entire second half without their best player, 6-foot-9 senior forward Pharrell Payne, who suffered a devastating hip injury. The Golden Eagles have been pretty meh at both ends of the floor (No. 64 on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 62 in defensive efficiency), so there’s no easy fix, but clearly this team does not yet have the blue-collar identity that has characterized Shaka Smart’s best teams. Dayton has likewise shown deficiencies during a 3-1 start that includes a 74-62 loss at Cincinnati on Nov. 11. The Flyers shot a putrid 2 for 26 from three in that game. Both these teams need a resume-boosting nonconference win, but only one is a desperate home team.
Alabama vs. Illinois
Seth’s Analysis
These coaches have put together two of the toughest nonconference schedules in the country, so it’s only fitting that they should square off. Alabama hasn’t played since suffering an 87-80 home loss to Purdue on Nov. 13. Purdue owned a plus-25 rebound margin and pulled down 17 offensive boards. Illinois may be playing short-handed, but the Illini pulled off an impressive win over Texas Tech on Nov. 11. Senior guard Andrej Stojakovic missed much of the preseason and the opening game due to a knee sprain, but he went for 23 points in the win over the Red Raiders. And 6-foot-9 freshman forward David Mirkovic exploded for 27 points and 21 rebounds in Friday’s home win over Colgate. Alabama is good, but Illinois has too much firepower, and it’s the fourth-tallest team in the country, per KenPom. That’s not a good opponent for a team that is having trouble battling on the backboards. I also like that KenPom has Illinois by six.
South Florida at Oklahoma State
Seth’s Analysis
The Cowboys got good news on Sunday when their top transfer, 6-3 senior guard Anthony Roy, who averaged 25.7 points per game last season at Green Bay, made his season debut after missing the first three games with a groin injury. Roy scored a team-high 15 points in 16 minutes off the bench during the Cowboys’ 85-69 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Second-year coach Steve Lutz has the Pokes off to a 4-0 start, including an 87-63 home win over Texas A&M on Nov. 9. Oklahoma State is once again playing racehorse basketball (No. 6 on KenPom in tempo), so it will be critical for the Bulls to take care of the ball and manage pace. Conversely, Oklahoma State will need to show toughness against a squad that ranks 10th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. Both teams do a good job of getting to the free throw line, so I expect this to be a rock-em, sock-em affair. KenPom projects Oklahoma State to win by seven, and if that was the line I probably would have taken the underdog. With this spread, I expect Oklahoma State will cover with late free throws.
Last season: 88-76-3
Last week: 1-4
This season: 1-9
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