What has two thumbs and went 5-0 against the spread on Wednesday?
THIS GUY!
I’ve been telling y’all that I was due for a bounce back, and back I bounced. Perhaps it was just the law of averages kicking in, but I believe my hand is still hot. And I’m ready for college hoops to continue feeding me the rock.
Fortunately, we have yet another amazing slate of games coming our way. So settle in, enjoy the action, and hopefully you can make a little lettuce along the way.
Here are my picks for today’s top games.
Duke at Michigan State
Seth’s Analysis
The good news for Duke is that freshman forward Cameron Boozer is playing like a National Player of the Year. The bad news is he is not getting enough help from his friends. The Blue Devils managed to get by Arkansas with only three players scoring in the second half, and they eked out a one-point home win over struggling Florida despite limited contributions from 6-foot-6 sophomore guard Isaiah Evans (1 for 8 from three) and 6-foot-5 junior point guard Caleb Foster (6 points, 2 assists, 1 turnover). That probably won’t cut it in the Breslin Center against a Michigan State team that thrives on defense and rebounding and has one of the top point guards in the country in 6-foot-2 sophomore Jeremy Fears, who leads the nation in assists at 9.4 per game (to just 2.3 turnovers). The Spartans only take about a third of their shots from three-point range, so if this gets into an up-and-down shootout it will favor the more “talented” Blue Devils. But Fears, Tom Izzo and the gang won’t let that happen.
Iowa State at Purdue
Seth’s Analysis
The big question is whether Cyclones senior point guard Tamin Lipsey is going to play. He sustained a leg injury late in the win over St. John’s at the Players Era Festival and has missed the last three games. He is listed as day-to-day. The Cyclones are one of just two teams ranked in the top 10 on KenPom in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Duke is the other), but it’s hard to imagine them pulling off a win in Mackey Arena without their heart-and-soul leader. The real intrigue here is watching T.J. Otzelberger’s vaunted defense going up the No.1-ranked offensive team in America and its incandescent point guard Braden Smith, who has 71 assists to 18 turnovers this season while averaging 13.4 points on 41.0 percent three-point shooting. Smith’s running mates Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufmann-Renn have played in lots of big games, but this will be a new challenge for the team’s burgeoning star at center, 7-foot-4 sophomore Daniel Jacobsen. He had 24 points, 9 rebounds and 6 blocks in a Nov. 28 blowout of Eastern Illinois. The competition will be much steeper here, obviously, but the line would have to be a lot bigger for me to go against the Boilermakers at home.
Louisville vs. Indiana
Seth’s Analysis
Yes, I know this isn’t the biggest game happening for Indiana University in Indianapolis on Saturday, but the hooping Hoosiers could really use a win after losing 73-64 on the road to a Minnesota squad that is ranked No. 100 on KenPom and had lost its previous three straight. That was Indiana’s first true road game of the season and it showed as the Hoosiers shot 8 of 27 from three (Tucker DeVries was 3 of 10) and got out-rebounded 40-25. Louisville also had its issues in its loss at Arkansas, shooting 22 percent from three and getting outscored from the foul line 27-14. It will be fun watching DeVries go shot for shot with Louisville’s superfrosh guard Mikel Brown Jr. I’ll ride with the Cardinals because I think they’re the better team, but this is gonna be a fun one.
Illinois vs. Tennessee
Seth’s Analysis
Over the years, Rick Barnes’ teams have had a tendency to be elite when it comes to defense and rebounding, and mediocre-to-pretty-good when it comes to scoring. This team fits that profile. It’s also coming in on a two-game losing streak, most recently a 62-60 loss at Syracuse on Tuesday night. The Vols committed 17 turnovers in the loss, and their forward tandem of 6-foot-11 senior center Felix Okpara and 6-foot-9 junior forward Cade Phillips combined for just 2 points on 1 of 7 shooting. Illinois has looked a little jagged as the Illini have struggled with injury issues, which hurt their chemistry and rhythmm. It has been eight days since Illinois’ 74-61 loss to UConn in Madison Square Garden, and while I’m guessing the Illini benefited from the practice time, I can’t resist a desperate home team.
Auburn at Arizona
Seth’s Analysis
For all the attention rightfully heaped on Arizona freshman forward Koa Peat, Jaden Bradley has actually been this team’s best player. The 6-foot-3 senior point guard had 27 points, 5 assists and 2 steals in the season opening win over Florida, and he had 21 points, 2 assists and 2 steals in the big win at UConn. Peat is a superstar, but when the Wildcats need a bucket late in the game, Tommy Lloyd puts the ball in Bradley’s hands. It will be a lot of fun watching Bradley do battle with Auburn sophomore guard Tahaad Pettiford, who strangely tends to play much better away from home, and I think the Wildcats’ front line (they rank No. 7 on KenPom in height) matches up favorably with Auburn senior forward Keyshawn Hall, who leads the Tigers in points (20.9 per game) and rebounds (9.0) and ranks second in assists (2.1). I am loathe to pick against Arizona at home and I think the Cats will win the game, but Auburn is a good team that has fared well against a rigorous schedule. I think the Tigers will be prepared to compete.
Last time: 5-0
This season: 8-12
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