As if all the holiday tournaments and marquee matchups weren’t enough, we now have night two of the ACC-SEC Challenge to look forward to — and for some of us, to turn a tidy profit.
The best thing about these challenges is they take place in true home environments. College basketball is best played on campus. We saw that on Tuesday night, not only with the challenge games but also the titanic clash between UConn and Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.
College hoops has started with a bang, but let’s be honest — your preferred prognosticator has started with a whimper. I made up a little bit of ground with my picks a couple of weeks ago, but now that the calendar has turned to December, I’m ready to bring the winter heat.
That starts with yet another high-octane slate tonight. Play me or fade me — so long as you enjoy the games.
Louisville at Arkansas
Seth’s Analysis
The Razorbacks remain ranked at No. 25 in the AP poll, but as I noted once again in my rankings column this week (where I dropped them for the first time this season), this team has really bad metrics. They’re No. 45 in the first NET ranking, No. 32 in BartTorvik, and No. 63 in Wins Above Bubble. Will the magic of Bud Walton Arena be enough? Perhaps, but the more salient reason to like the Hogs is that the Cardinals don’t have the frontcourt scoring prowess that Michigan State and Duke had, which was in evidence when the Hogs lost to each squad. Louisville does have a dynamic backcourt duo in 6-foot-5 freshman Mikel Brown and 6-foot-4 senior Ryan Conwell, but Arkansas has plenty of length, speed and athleticism on the perimeter to match up favorably. I also think 6-foot-6 sophomore wing Karter Knox is due to bounce back from his woeful two-point outing in the loss to Duke. Most of all, Arkansas is badly in need of a get-right game, and you all know how much I love desperate home teams —especially when they’re the underdog.
Clemson at Alabama
Seth’s Analysis
Alabama is one banged-up basketball team. Senior guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Keitenn Barstow are both out with ankle injuries, and it doesn’t look like either will play against the Tigers. That’s a problem considering Clemson is once again playing blue-collar, methodical, tried-and-true Brad Brownell basketball. The Tigers rank No. 301 on KePom in tempo, No. 12 in turnover percentage, No. 13 in defensive rebound percentage and No. 19 in three-point percentage. You’ll recall that before Bristow got healthy for the win over Illinois, the Crimson Tide was out-rebounded 48-23 in a home loss to Purdue. Clemson doesn’t have nearly the experience or offensive firepower that the Boilermakers have, and I’d be surprised if they can pull off the upset. But they’re the kind of team that can put a scare in the Tide, especially when they are not at full strength. Also, KenPom had this spread at Alabama -8 so that’s even more reason to take the extra cushion.
NC State at Auburn
Seth’s Analysis
N.C. State had a rather forgettable experience at the Maui Invitational, going 1-2 with losses to Seton Hall and Texas. The problem is not hard to diagnose. The Pack is No. 8 on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency but No. 94 in adjusted defensive efficiency. A huge reason for that is their propensity to foul. N.C. State is No. 337 in defensive free throw rate, and its best offensive player, 6-foot-6 senior forward Darrion Williams, committed 14 fouls in three games in Maui. That’s a bad formula to take into a road game against a team that is deep and athletic and loves to attack the rim. Auburn is No. 10 on KenPom in offensive efficiency, No. 7 in turnover percentage, and No. 13 in offensive rebound percentage. Plus, its lone returning player, sophomore guard Tahaad Pettiford, broke out of his early slump and played extremely well in Vegas, averaging 22.3 points on 48.9 percent shooting (42.1 percent from three) over the three games. If anything, I’m surprised the spread is this small. I anticipate a long and difficult night for the Wolfpack.
SMU at Vanderbilt
Seth’s Analysis
There aren’t many hotter teams in America than the Commodores, especially at the offensive end. As I’ve noted in my Top 25 columns, the metrics have loved this team from the start of the season. They looked the part in The Bahamas last week, when they routed Saint Mary’s 96-71. That’s the most points the Gaels have given up in 25 years and only the second time a team hung 90 or more on them in regulation since Randy Bennett has been coaching there. Senior guard Duke Miles leads the way with 18.8 points per game, but the Commodores have six players who are averaging 9 or more, and per KenPom they are the eighth-oldest team in the country. SMU is no slouch either as the Mustangs are coming in undefeated, but two of those wins were squeakers over Butler at home and at Mississippi State in overtime. The Mustangs also take just 32 percent of their shots from three, which ranks 323rd nationally per KenPom. Given the way Vandy plays — and scores — covering a spread this size at home shouldn’t be all that difficult.
UCLA at Washington
Seth’s Analysis
You might think Seattle is best known for coffee and grunge music, but Huskies coach Danny Sprinkle calls it the “sprained ankle capital of the world.” His team has been hit by a slew of injuries, and while the guys are starting to get healthier, this team is a long way from whole. Senior guard Desmond Claude returned three games ago after sitting the first four, but the team’s best player, 7-foot-1 freshman Hannes Steinbach, is still working his way back. Steinbach is a game-time decision, but if he does play, he won’t be at 100 percent. UCLA is also without its best frontcourt player, 6-foot-9 senior forward Tyler Bilodeau, who missed the last two games due to a knee sprain, including the 80-72 loss to California. Senior guard Donovan Dent tweaked his lower leg in that game, but he’s expected to play. Washington’s health woes combined with UCLA’s need to bounce back from the Cal loss makes the Bruins the smart pick, but given this team’s low rankings in the metrics, let the buyer beware.
Last season: 88-76-3
Last time: 2-3
This season: 3-12
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