Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 48-40-1 and +$77 on the season as the second weekend of the tournament approaches. In today’s article I’ll break down my favorite two plays for the first day of the Sweet Sixteen.
Let’s get to it.
6 BYU vs 2 Alabama, 7:09 p.m., CBS
Line: Alabama -5.5, Over/Under: 175.5
The Picks: $20 on BYU Moneyline (+190)
The Sweet Sixteen clash between BYU and Alabama represents the perfect March storm where statistical profiles create a classic tournament upset opportunity that the market hasn’t fully priced. BYU’s offensive arsenal — fourth in rim attacking efficiency and 22nd in three-point shooting frequency — matches up well against an Alabama defense that ranks an abysmal 348th defending quality three-pointers and 352nd in forcing turnovers, essentially allowing the Cougars to dictate their preferred offensive style without disruption. While Alabama’s nation-leading tempo and rim attacking tendencies have overwhelmed opponents all season, BYU counters with the 13th-best defense at preventing rim attacks, forcing the Tide into lower-percentage opportunities outside their comfort zone. The statistical contrast creates a perfect storm: Alabama’s defensive weakness perfectly aligns with BYU’s offensive strength, while the Cougars’ defensive profile provides a good antidote to slow down the Crimson Tide’s normally deadly efficiency. When March drama unfolds in the final minutes, BYU’s superior passing should create better shot quality against Alabama’s porous perimeter defense, making this +190 moneyline an opportunity to capitalize on a matchup where the stats tell a different story than the pricing suggests.
4 Maryland vs 1 Florida, 7:39 p.m., TBS
Line: Florida -6, Over/Under: 157.5
The Pick: $20 on Florida -6 (-110)
The Sweet Sixteen spotlight shifts to San Francisco, where the offensive juggernaut Gators look to continue their tournament march against a Maryland squad that’s living dangerously after Queen’s heroics in the second round. Florida’s fourth-ranked offensive rebounding attack should create significant second-chance opportunities against a Terrapins team that’s vulnerable on the interior, while their rim efficiency and three-point shooting form a pick-your-poison predicament that Maryland’s defense hasn’t faced in Big Ten play. The Terps counter with comparable three-point efficiency and similar rim-attacking prowess, but Florida’s superior spacing (17th vs Maryland’s 34th) and quicker tempo (52nd vs 62nd) suggest the Gators will dictate the game flow and force Maryland’s limited depth into uncomfortable defensive rotations. When these statistical profiles collide, the separation comes from Florida’s elite offensive rebounding against a Maryland team that, despite forcing turnovers at a high rate, won’t find enough extra possessions to overcome the Gators’ multifaceted attack. Expect Walter Clayton Jr. to continue his tournament tear while Florida’s nine-man rotation wears down Maryland’s starters who’ve logged heavy minutes throughout the tournament — lay the points with the SEC champions who are playing with Final Four-caliber efficiency.
