I’m not sure what we did to deserve a pair of games involving four Final Four contenders on a February Saturday, but I’m sure we’re all grateful. I’m also hoping that the decisions of Jon Scheyer and Dusty May to have their teams play such a big nonconference showcase at a neutral site will convince other coaches (and TV network problems) to keep serving up these matchups in the years ahead.
It’s a happy coincidence that the game happens to be taking place on the same day that Arizona and Houston are squaring off in a mega Big 12 matchup. And this being college basketball, we know the losers in these games are still very much in position to win a national championship. In the end, the fans are the ones who win biggest.
Speaking of winning, I am still trying to crawl my way out of the hole I dug with my picks early in the season. Hopefully, I can help you do a little winning today as well. Here are my picks against the spread for the five best games.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Seth’s Analysis
This is a huge game for Vanderbilt in more ways than one. The Commodores’ second-leading scorer, 6-foot-2 senior guard Duke Miles, is set to return after missing the last six games following knee surgery. His return should give a nice boost to a Commodores squad that lost just twice without him, each time by a point. Sophomore point guard Tyler Tanner was terrific in Vandy’s 81-80 loss at Missouri Wednesday night (27 points, 5 assists), and he should be even more effective with his wing man back beside him. Tennessee is also playing stellar basketball of late, winning seven of its last eight, and freshman forward Nate Ament was sublime again Wednesday night, going for 28 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in an 89-86 home win over Oklahoma. In an evenly matched game, I usually tilt towards the home team, especially given the emotional boost the Commodores should get with Miles back on the floor.
Arizona at Houston
Seth’s Analysis
This is a hugely compelling game between two projected No. 1 seeds and national championship favorites. But it would have been much better if Arizona freshman forward Koa Peat were playing. Peat will miss his second straight game due to a lower body injury. Arizona will also be without backup forward Dwayne Aristode due to an illness. Suffice to say, being down two frontcourt players is not optimal for a road game against a Houston program that prides itself on physical defense, offensive rebounding, and also has arguably the best three-man perimeter in 6-foot-4 freshman Kingston Flemings, 6-foot-3 senior Emanuel Sharp and 6-foot-4 senior Milos Uzan. Plus, the Cougars have had five long days to marinate on their loss at Iowa State Monday night.
UConn at Villanova
Seth’s Analysis
I’ve been warning for weeks that UConn was not playing championship-caliber basketball, and that finally cost them as the Huskies have lost two of their last four games. Falling to St. John’s in Madison Square Garden was not a huge deal, but losing at home to a Creighton squad that had lost dropped of its last six games was definitely cause for alarm. Dan Hurley said afterwards that his senior forward Alex Karaban, who had two points on 1 of 6 shooting, was dealing with an injury and was moving like “a cargo ship.” It’s not clear yet whether Karaban will play in this game, but there’s no doubt the Wildcats would like to finish the job they started on Jan. 24, when they had the Huskies on the ropes in Hartford before falling 75-67 in overtime. Villanova has won six straight since then, most recently by 92-89 in overtime at Xavier on Tuesday, so it would seem the Cats have the momentum. But when it comes to picking games, I’m always looking for the swinging pendulum, and I believe the fact that UConn just lost at home and could be playing a man down will mean the team is more primed and ready to compete.
Michigan vs. Duke
Seth’s Analysis
It’s no coincidence that these two teams are ranked in the top two at KenPom, and also in the top two in adjusted defensive efficiency. Defense wins championships, and both of these squads are in a very short list of championship contenders. Michigan has been obliterating opponents for most of the season — in their last two games, they beat UCLA by 30 points at home and Purdue by 11 on the road — but Duke has also piled up big victory margins during its three-game win streak since the Feb. 7 loss at North Carolina. The most intriguing matchup will be Duke’s freshman forward Cameron Boozer going up against the Wolverines’ imposing front line of 7-foot-3 junior Aday Mara, 6-foot-9 senior Yaxel Lendeborg and 6-foot-9 sophomore Morez Johnson. Of course, Boozer can be just as effective away from the basket, so it will be critical for those players to contain him without getting into foul trouble. The other big question will be how well Boozer’s supporting cast plays, because the Wolverines have incredible balance, depth and unselfishness. Witness their 24 assists on 30 field goals in the win over the Boilermakers. If Duke guard Isaiah Evans plays as well as he has of late (he’s averaging 19.7 points on 57.1 percent three-shooting over his last three games), then the Blue Devils have a great chance to win. But I think Michigan is the slightly better team, and they’re ready to prove it.
Illinois at UCLA
Seth’s Analysis
Good for UCLA coach Mick Cronin for apologizing for his behavior Tuesday night, when he sent senior forward Steven Jamerson to the locker room late in the Bruins’ loss at Michigan State. (Cronin now says that after watching a video of the play in question that Jamerson might not have even deseved to be called for a flagrant 1 technical.) Cronin also seems to be acknowledging that his overall crotchety demeanor is not a good look. Unfortunately, apologizing is a lot easier than beating an Illinois squad that is finally healthy and looking like one of the top teams in the country. The Illini got senior point guard Kylan Boswell, who had missed seven games with a broken hand, back for Sunday’s 71-51 over Indiana, and junior guard Andrej Stojakovic, who missed two games with a high ankle sprain, for Wednesday’s 101-65 thrashing of USC. UCLA also benefited from the recent return of 6-foot-3 senior guard Skyy Clark from a hamstring injury, but that won’t be enough to slow down the Illini Express.
Last Week: 4-1
Season total: 28-37
Michigan vs Duke
With No. 1 Michigan Looming, Duke’s Defense Looks Ready For Prime Time
The Blue Devils are playing their best defense under Jon Scheyer. How will it hold up against the nation’s top team on Saturday?
Dusty May Unpacks Michigan’s Dominant Season and Picks His All-Time Wolverines Starting Five
Following a huge win over Michigan State on Saturday, May joined Seth Davis and Andy Katz on The Hoops HQ Show
Grant Hill: The Hoops HQ Interview
Seth Davis and Andy Katz chat with hoops legend Grant Hill about the Duke-UNC rivalry, Cameron Boozer, Olympic basketball and more
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