Daily Best Bets for Thursday, April 3: How to Bet the Best Final Four We’ve Ever Seen

Let’s get to it.

1 Florida vs 1 Auburn, 6:09 P.M., CBS

Line: Florida -2.5, Over/Under: 159.5

The Bet: $10 on Auburn +2.5 -105, $10 on Auburn 1H ML +110

The Final Four spotlight shines on this all-SEC showdown where the metrics suggest the wrong team might be favored as the Tigers and Gators battle for a championship berth on college basketball’s grandest stage.

Auburn’s offensive profile is nothing short of elite, ranking seventh nationally in turnover rate, 14th in attacking the rim, and 34th in three point efficiency (ShotQuality), a trifecta of strengths that has fueled their tournament run and presents matchup nightmares for even the stingiest defenses. Florida counters with the nation’s fourth ranked offensive rebounding rate, creating second chances that have been crucial in their path to the Final Four, but Auburn’s not far behind at 35th in this category while holding slight advantages in passing quality and transition efficiency. Both teams excel at spacing the floor and attacking the rim effectively, but the Tigers’ superior ball security should neutralize Florida’s quicker tempo in what promises to be a back-and-forth thriller under the brightest lights.

With Auburn’s comprehensive skill set and balanced execution across multiple offensive categories, this spread feels a bit off. Take the Tigers and the points in what should be an instant classic that could very well be decided on the final possession.

For my second bet, I’m doubling down with Auburn’s first half money line as the Tigers’ efficiency metrics translate particularly well to fast starts in high pressure environments. Auburn’s elite ball security should prove especially valuable in the early minutes when Final Four jitters typically lead to sloppy play, while their transition efficiency allows them to capitalize on Florida’s mistakes before the Gators can set their half court defense. The Tigers’ superior spacing and passing should help them navigate Florida’s early defensive intensity, creating quality looks before the Gators can leverage their elite offensive rebounding advantage that typically becomes more impactful as games progress and legs tire. Auburn has demonstrated throughout this tournament run that their offensive execution is most clinical in opening periods — when their shooting legs are fresh and their sets are still catching opponents off guard — making this first half money line a premium opportunity to capitalize on statistical advantages that specifically translate to early game success.

1 Duke vs. 1 Houston, 8:49 p.m., CBS

Line: Duke -5, Over/Under: 136.5

The Bet(s): $10 on Duke -5 (-110), $10 on Duke Race to 20 Points (-170), $10 on Over 136.5 (-110)

The bright lights of the Final Four shine down on a Blue Devils squad that I told you just yesterday would be cutting down the nets when all is said and done, and the ShotQuality numbers make it abundantly clear why Duke should handle Houston in this national semifinal. Coach Scheyer’s squad brings elite offensive spacing that perfectly complements their devastating three point efficiency, while their exceptional passing creates the kind of ball movement that creates critical problems for even the toughest defenses when the pressure reaches its peak. Houston counters with their methodical approach and a unique offensive identity that features the nation’s highest frequency of post-ups but also a high rate of midrange shots, creating an attack that Duke’s NBA-level talent will be able to handle.

The Blue Devils’ clinical free throw shooting becomes especially crucial in a tournament setting where every point matters, giving them a significant advantage in a game that could tighten late. While Houston’s offensive spacing and three point efficiency mirror Duke’s strengths, their over reliance on post play and pick-and-roll actions without rim pressure creates an approach that the versatile Duke defense should contain. When you combine Duke’s transition efficiency against a plodding Cougars squad, along with Houston’s projected difficulty to force the Blue Devils into turnovers, we have all the ingredients for the Blue Devils to keep marching toward the championship I predicted.

The race to 20 points market presents strong value with the Blue Devils poised to set the early tempo against Houston’s deliberately sluggish approach. Duke’s spacing combined with their efficient transition game creates a perfect recipe for jumping out to an early lead against a Cougars squad that methodically works through their post-ups and pick-and-roll sets. Houston offensive profile suggests they’ll struggle to find efficient early offense against Duke’s disciplined defense, which excels at limiting high percentage looks at the rim. The Blue Devils’ low turnover rate means more possessions converted into points while their exceptional three point shooting allows them to build leads in bursts that Houston’s tempo simply cannot match. With the Blue Devils carrying championship momentum and the confidence from a tournament run that has validated their statistical profile, expect them to sprint past the 20-point marker while Houston is still settling into their deliberate offensive rhythm.

When it comes to the total, Houston prefers to grind games to a crawl but the tournament setting and Duke’s advantages should push this total over as the Blue Devils assert their preferred pace. The offensive firepower on both sides is undeniable — these are two of the top three teams nationally in three point efficiency and spacing per ShotQuality, creating high value opportunities even against strong defense. Duke’s efficiency will force Houston to abandon their preferred glacial pace when playing from behind, creating additional possessions and scoring opportunities as the Cougars attempt to keep pace with the Blue Devils’ attack. Houston’s elite offensive rebounding will generate crucial second chance opportunities that lead to high percentage looks or fouls, with strong free throw shooting ensuring those trips to the line convert to points. The combination of Duke’s ability to score in bunches from beyond the arc, Houston’s desperation to match that output when trailing, and the heightened offensive execution typical of Final Four teams should push this total over the number as both teams showcase the elite offensive efficiency that brought them to San Antonio.