Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season. Including March Madness.
As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 51-42-1 and +$108 on the season as the Elite Eight winds down. With just two games left, I’ve gone a bit deeper into my biggest play of Sunday’s action.
Let’s get to it.
2 Michigan St. vs 1 Auburn, 5:05 p.m., CBS
Line: Auburn -4.5, Over/Under: 156.5
The Pick: $30 on Auburn -4.5 (-115)
Anticipation looms large in advance of another heavyweight March collision, as Auburn’s high-octane offense squares off against Michigan State’s trademark defensive grit with a Final Four berth on the line. The Tigers have been a statistical marvel all season, ranking seventh nationally in low turnover rate and boasting elite offensive efficiency metrics in rim attacks and spacing — a deadly combination that has overwhelmed defenses throughout their tournament run.
Michigan State counters with formidable defensive rebounding and rim protection, creating a classic strength-versus-strength matchup in the paint that could determine which team advances. The contrast in three-point philosophy couldn’t be more stark: Auburn’s 34th-ranked efficient perimeter shooting (per ShotQuality) provides spacing for their rim attacks, while the Spartans rank just 329th in three-point frequency, essentially conceding the arc in favor of interior dominance.
Though both showcase elite passing and nearly identical offensive rebounding percentages, the Tigers’ diverse offensive arsenal gives them multiple pathways to scoring against even the stingiest defenses. Michigan State’s excellent free throw shooting could keep things interesting if this becomes a foul-heavy affair down the stretch, but Auburn’s transition efficiency should create enough easy baskets to establish the cushion needed to cover this number in what promises to be a tournament classic worthy of the Elite Eight stage.
