Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
With a 10-4 run over our last four articles, we are up to 24-16-1 and +$86 on the season. Today, I have the honor of discussing both of the very first postseason games of the year with you, as well as a marquee Big Ten matchup.
Let’s get started.
WHAT’S YOUR BEST BET TONIGHT?
TELL US BELOW.
11 Wisconsin +4.5 @ 8 Michigan State, 1:30 p.m., CBS
Line: Michigan State -4.5 , Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $10 on Wisconsin +4.5 (-110)
The Badgers allow the fewest shots attacking the rim on defense in the entire nation while leading the country in free throw shooting percentage at an impressive 83.3 percent. Wisconsin also shoots the 18th highest frequency of three-pointers in the country and turns the ball over at the 21st lowest rate, creating elite spacing on offense while rebounding effectively. They rank as the second-best halfcourt defense per ShotQuality metrics and excel at keeping opponents out of transition, making them a formidable matchup for anyone. Michigan State enters this contest after a dramatic last-second road win over Maryland, potentially setting up a classic letdown scenario as they return home. The Spartans have over-performed defensively this season with conference opponents shooting just 27 percent from deep, but Wisconsin’s sharpshooting means the Badgers should be expected to shoot closer to the expected 35 percent against Sparty and could easily expose Michigan State’s vulnerabilities. Take the Badgers and the points against a side that might not be able to keep pace if Wisconsin’s offense clicks.
#8 North Florida vs #7 Austin Peay, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: North Florida -1.5 , Over/Under: 158.5
The Pick: $15 on UNF -1.5 (-110)
The first official elimination games of the 2025 postseason tip off Sunday night with a pair of Atlantic Sun conference tournament matchups. North Florida’s superior shot profile features the third-highest three-point shooting frequency in the nation, while defensively they allow the seventh-fewest three-point attempts, all while operating at the 15th fastest tempo. Both squads permit opponents to attack the rim at a high rate, but Austin Peay lacks the shot making ability to capitalize in the other direction the same way that North Florida can. The Ospreys’ deadly long-range game has the chance to catch fire if the Austin Peay defense is caught sleeping on closeouts because they are worried about the rim. I think the duality of the Ospreys will be too much to handle given the specific weaknesses of the Governors. I trust the shot math and the strong rim and three rate: Lay the small number with North Florida as they look to advance to face No. 2 seed North Alabama in the next round.
#10 Central Arkansas vs #9 Stetson, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: Stetson -1.5, Over/Under: 144.5
The Pick: $15 on C. Ark. +1.5 (-110)
This lower-seeded tournament matchup pits the No. 9 seed against the No. 10 seed, with the winner advancing to face top-seeded Lipscomb. When these teams last met, Central Arkansas suffered a defeat thanks to a net 14-point swing on expected three-point success against them. Had that shooting normalized to expectations, Central Arkansas would have won that contest per ShotQuality metrics. While these teams appear similar on paper, Stetson relies more heavily on shot-making while Central Arkansas leans on defensive prowess — a distinction that typically favors the latter in tournament settings. The Bears’ shot profile is particularly encouraging, as they take a high volume of threes while preventing opponents from getting to the rim, directly countering Stetson’s offensive strategy. Take the Bears as a slight underdog to advance in what promises to be a tightly contested first-round battle.
