Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 45-39-1 and +$30 on the season as the second round of March Madness begins. Today I have picked two of my biggest bets of the day for $25 bets.
Let’s get to it.
12 Drake vs. 3 Texas Tech, 3:10 p.m., TNT
Line: Texas Tech -7. Over/Under: 127.5.
The Pick: $25 on Texas Tech -7 (-105).
The Madness continues as Texas Tech brings its elite offensive spacing and efficient three-point shooting against a Drake squad whose deliberate pace has frustrated opponents throughout the season. The contrasting styles couldn’t be more pronounced. The Red Raiders excel in pick-and-roll schemes with exceptional ball movement while paradoxically avoiding rim attacks despite being efficient when they do drive. Drake counters with a ground-and-pound approach centered on relentless rim attacks, elite offensive rebounding and a defense that forces turnovers at a top-10 rate nationally. The Bulldogs’ transition efficiency could cause problems if Tech’s careful ballhandling falters under tournament pressure, but Drake’s methodical pace plays perfectly into the Red Raiders’ spacing-oriented halfcourt attack. The free throw battle could swing momentum — Drake’s tremendous 0.432 free throw rate suggests the Bulldogs will earn trips to the line. But Texas Tech’s combination of efficient shooting and defensive length should ultimately create enough separation to cover this number as the bright lights of the Sweet Sixteen beckon.
9 Creighton vs. 1 Auburn, 4:10 p.m. TBS
Line: Auburn -9.5. Over/Under: 151.5.
The Pick: $25 on Auburn -9.5 (-110).
The Tigers and Bluejays clash in what promises to be one of the most fascinating tactical battles of the second round, with Auburn’s balanced offensive attack powered by the nation’s seventh-best turnover rate squaring off against a Creighton defense that ranks a woeful 361st in forcing turnovers. Auburn’s offensive efficiency stems from its balanced approach — ranking 15th in attacking the rim, 34th in three-point shooting and 26th in passing by ShotQuality — creating a multidimensional threat that Creighton’s otherwise solid defense will struggle to contain for a full 40 minutes. The Bluejays’ offense lives and dies by the three-ball, ranking 11th nationally in three-point attempt frequency at a staggering 48.8 percent while sitting last in the frequency of rim attacks, making them dangerously one-dimensional against Auburn’s defensive versatility. When Creighton’s threes aren’t falling, its lack of offensive rebounding and inability to create easy buckets at the rim becomes its undoing, and against an Auburn squad that thrives in transition and on the offensive glass, the Bluejays will face wave after wave of scoring opportunities they simply can’t match. The madness of March often rewards balanced teams over specialists, and with Auburn excelling in virtually every facet while Creighton relies heavily on perimeter shooting, the Tigers should pull away late to cover this seemingly small spread.
